McKee facing uphill battle in WPRI poll. Block may have a chance. AG race is wide open.

Gov. Dan McKee’s path to reelection remains dubious, with prospective primary voters backing his Democratic challenger, Helena Buonanno Foulkes, by a 2-to-1 margin, according to a new WPRI-TV 12 poll published Tuesday.

The survey of 1,000 likely Rhode Island voters conducted May 14 to 16 by Emerson College Polling is the first in a series of election-year polls that 12 News will publish, along with not-yet-scheduled, televised debates in key local and state races, according to a statement from the news station.

The inaugural 2026 poll, with a 3% margin of error, focused on the looming Sept. 9 Democratic primary, which will be the second time McKee and Foulkes square off. The two ran against each other in the 2022 primary, with Foulkes losing to McKee by three percentage points in a four-way race.

This time, the former CVS executive enjoys a commanding lead, with 40% support to McKee’s 20% among 565 likely Democratic voters surveyed. The credibility interval is 4.1%. It’s a narrower gap than the 34-percentage point lead Foulkes held in a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll published in April.

But still not good news for the incumbent governor, said Joe Fleming, a 12 News political analyst.

“Based on all the polls we’ve seen so far, Dan McKee has not made any headway in closing the gap,” Fleming said in an interview Tuesday. “Every poll he’s trailing, and trailing by a good amount of votes.

Foulkes outperformed McKee in nearly every demographic category, including all age groups, both genders, and union households. Winning influential union support along with older voters —  the latter are statistically more likely to participate in primary elections — is key for McKee to stand a chance against Foulkes, Fleming said. 

Almost as many prospective Foulkes supporters — 37% of likely Democratic voters responding — are still undecided even though early voting begins Aug. 20. So far, neither McKee nor Foulkes have launched the blitz of TV and radio advertisements that typically accompanies campaign season.

“Until that happens, people are just trying to get ready for summer,” Fleming said. 

When it comes to big advertising spending, Foulkes has an advantage, with $3.6 million cash on hand as of March 30 compared with $1.4 million in McKee’s account, according to the most recent campaign finance reports available. 

And unlike McKee, she has “room to grow” when it comes to voter awareness, Fleming said.

More than one-quarter of voters surveyed, and an even larger share of Democrats, were “neutral” on Foulkes. Another 17% said they had not heard of her. Taken together, that’s nearly half of voters who could be swayed, positively or negatively, Fleming said.

In contrast, only 3% of voters said they had never heard of McKee, while 16% were neutral.

“Most people have an opinion of the governor right now, and it is not a good opinion,” Fleming said.

Six in 10 voters disapproved of McKee, compared with 21% who approved — for a net favorability of -39 — punctuating a string of low approval ratings for the sitting governor across polls in the last several years. Even within his own party, his net approval was negative. 

Foulkes’ net approval rating overall was -2, though she received a positive rating among Democratic primary voters. 

Angelika Pelligrino, a spokesperson for Foulkes’ campaign, said the WPRI poll showed the appetite for new leadership.

“Rhode Islanders are being squeezed,” Pelligrino said in a statement Tuesday. “There is not a single community in our state where a working family can afford to live—from housing to childcare and everything in between. Costs keep rising and the system keeps failing them no matter how hard they try. This poll shows Rhode Islanders are ready for change and Helena will bring that needed change.”

Less than three hours before the poll was published, McKee’s campaign released a statement summarizing internal polling that it claimed showed voters’ distaste with Foulkes’ ties to the opioid crisis and Republican donors. 

According to McKee’s campaign, one in five voters moved “toward McKee” — after previously backing Foulkes or being undecided — after they were prompted with information about Foulkes’ tenure as president of CEO Pharmacy during the time the pharmacy giant allegedly filled false prescriptions for opioids, according to a federal investigation. Voters also changed their reported preferences after hearing about Foulkes ties to Republican candidates groups, such as Sen. Mitch McConnell and The Home Depot political action committee. 

McKee’s campaign did not respond to requests to release the poll results or exact phrasing of questions. 

Pelligrino responded by turning the negative attention back on McKee.

“Dan McKee is a failed governor and this polling memo is nothing more than his own flailing campaign admitting that the only way they can try to make this race competitive is by throwing misleading negative attacks at Helena and seeing what sticks,” Pelligrino said in an emailed response Tuesday. “Rhode Islanders are ready to turn the page and are not excited about rewarding him with an unprecedented third term.”

Block takes Republicans and independents 

Meanwhile, independent candidate Ken Block performed best with Republican and independent voters, according to the survey. Block, who ran for governor twice before — in 2010 as a moderate and in 2014 as a Republican — remains unknown to nearly one-third of voters. Another three in 10 feel neutral about him.

But unlike Foulkes and McKee, Block, a Barrington software engineer, has more time to improve his name recognition, since he won’t be on the ballot until the Nov. 9 election. 

“He’s in a strong position,” Fleming concluded.

In a hypothetical general election contest between Foulkes, Block and an unnamed GOP nominee, Foulkes emerged victorious, with 39% of votes, compared with 21% for the Republican and 19% for Block. But with one in five voters still undecided, it’s not a done deal, especially if Block can win the support of fellow independent voters, Fleming said.

Block’s chances look better if McKee wins the primary, though the governor still holds the lead with 33% of votes to Block’s 22%. 

Block said the poll “further validates” his own internal polling showing a path to victory.

“The two leading Democrats for governor cannot even get to 40% after running for office for the last five years, independent voters have an extremely unfavorable view of the current administration, and most voters who are currently undecided are independent,” Block said in an emailed response Tuesday.

 Aaron Guckian was the only one of three Republican gubernatorial candidates included in the poll. Guckian, who ran unsuccessfully for lieutenant governor in 2022, had a net favorability of +7 with Republican voters — one point less than Block’s reception among GOP voters. And three-quarters of survey participants had never heard of or had no opinion on Guckian, who served as an aide to former Gov. Don Carcieri. 

Guckian did not immediately respond to requests for comment Tuesday.

‘Undecided’ for AG 

The survey also took the pulse on the Democratic primary for attorney general. The four-way race for the seat left by Peter Neronha, who is term-limited, remains wide open, with three-quarters of prospective Democratic primary voters undecided. Democrat Kim Ahern, former chair of the Cannabis Control Commission, and Rep. Joe Solomon Jr., a Warwick Democrat, held a minor lead over their competitors, each receiving 9% of prospective voters. Rep. Jason Knight, a Barrington Democrat, and Keith Hoffmann, former policy chief for the attorney general, each received 5% of votes in the survey.

Fleming attributed Ahern’s status as the only woman in the race, and Solomon’s distinction as a more moderate Democrat, as reason for their preliminary leads, which are still within the margin of error.

“Undecided is winning by a mile,” he said. “None of these people are household names at all.”

But Solomon’s campaign touted his poll numbers as a positive signal.

“Rhode Islanders are seeing what sets Joe apart: he’s the only candidate in this race who has been a prosecutor in the Warwick Solicitor’s office, a bail commissioner for over a decade, and the legislator who wrote the kinds of consumer protection laws Rhode Island’s AG enforces, including the elder fraud law that requires banks to flag scams targeting seniors and the catalytic converter theft law that has cut thefts by 80 percent in some cities,” Joel Kasnetz, a spokesperson for Solomon’s campaign, said in an emailed response.

Josh Block, a spokesperson for Ahern’s campaign, also pointed to the poll results as a sign of her “momentum.”

“It’s great to see that Kim’s experience and vision for the AG’s office is resonating with Rhode Islanders,” Block said in an emailed response Tuesday night. “Rhode Islanders want a prosecutor, not a politician, as the state’s top law enforcement officer, and we’re confident that Kim’s momentum will continue to grow as she meets more voters in every community.”

Neither Hoffmann’s nor Knight’s campaigns were not dissuaded by their slightly poorer showings, either.

“As voters learn more about Keith’s record, including his leadership experience inside the Attorney General’s Office and his successful track record taking on the Trump Administration and winning, we are confident they will see Keith as the candidate best prepared to serve as Rhode Island’s next Attorney General,” Evan England, a campaign spokesperson, said in an emailed response.

“As more Rhode Islanders hear about Jason’s work in the State House opposing Trump and ICE, his deep experience in Rhode Island’s courts as state prosecutor and defense attorney, his record of leadership on historic legislation like the Assault Weapons Ban and protecting access to reproductive care, and his service as a Navy veteran, they’ll recognize that he is the clear choice to serve as Rhode Island’s next Attorney General,” Sydney Keen, a spokesperson for Knight’s campaign, said in an emailed response.

Fleming was skeptical whether any of the AG candidates could break through given that the governor’s race is “taking up all the oxygen.”

One boost to watch for: an endorsement from the Rhode Island Democratic Party. The state Democrats have not yet made any endorsements in state or local races. 

Half of survey takers identified as independent voters — matching the percentage statewide, according to registration data from the Rhode Island Department of State. 

Another 36% identified as Democrats, and the remainder were Republicans. 

More than half voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, with 37% backing President Donald Trump. The poll also featured a range of age groups and education levels. Nearly eight in 10 survey participants identified as white, and 25% were union members or had family members who belonged to a union.

The primary is Sept. 9 and the general election is Nov. 3.