Shapiro, Pa. Democrats look to mobilize voters ahead of midterm elections

With less than 100 days until the 2026 November election, Democrats and Republicans are preparing for pivotal Pennsylvania races that could have national implications. 

Democrats have their eye on the commonwealth because as a purple swing state, it’s poised to be a key player in the midterms, with several races that could determine control of the state legislature and the U.S. House.

Republicans are hoping to flip the governor’s office, with state Treasurer Stacy Garrity running against incumbent Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, while maintaining control of the state Senate. Democrats hold a slim majority in the state House. 

The Pennsylvania delegation in the U.S. House also has a GOP majority.

Races to watch

Experts say the commonwealth is expected to play a major role in determining which party holds the majority in the U.S. House for the last two years of President Donald Trump’s term. The national Democratic Party has made clear its hopes to unseat several incumbent Republicans in their quest to gain control of the chamber. 

Chris Borick, a political science professor at Lehigh University, said any coordinated campaign effort needs to start with the highest elected position on the ballot.

“Democrats are very confident they have a strong candidate at the top of the ticket this year in Governor Shapiro,” he said. “Democrats see a scenario where if everything breaks their way, they can flip four Republican-held seats in the state.” 

Those four House seats — in the 1st, 7th, 8th, and 10th congressional districts — feature Shapiro-backed Democrats hoping to unseat incumbent Republicans. 

In the 1st District, Democratic Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie is running against Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. In the 7th District, Shapiro endorsed Democratic union leader and former firefighter Bob Brooks, who is up against Republican U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. 

Democrat Paige Cognetti, the current mayor of Scranton, is looking to unseat Republican U.S. Rep. Rob Bresnahan in the 8th District. And Janelle Stelson, a Democrat and former news anchor, is running for a second time against Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Scott Perry in the 10th District. 

The 7th, 8th, and 10th districts were decided by under 2% of the vote two years ago, giving Democrats hope that they can flip those seats.

At the state level, Democrats hope to secure a governing trifecta by reelecting Shapiro as governor, maintaining and expanding their majority in the House, and gaining control of the state Senate. 

“They’d like to get to the place where they have a little comfort in the House,” Borick said. “They’re targeting places out where I live in the Lehigh Valley, which is always one of the hotspots as one of the more competitive areas in the country.” 

Republicans have controlled the state Senate for more than 30 years, which political scientist Berwood Yost said has made the commonwealth’s legislature more moderate than it would be otherwise. 

But now, Shapiro’s immense fundraising will let him “try to do something that hasn’t happened in a long time, and that is change the direction of the Republican Senate in Pennsylvania,” Yost, the director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College, said. 

“I don’t think people are recognizing how significant it would be if that state Senate were to flip and they were to hold the governor’s office and the state House,” he added.

A governing trifecta would allow Democrats to advance long-stalled priorities, including raising the state’s minimum wage and passing anti-discrimination protections for LGBTQ+ people. 

In the state Senate’s 16th District, current Lehigh County controller and Democrat Mark Pinsley is running against incumbent Republican Jarrett Coleman. 

Democrats are also tasked with maintaining control of a seat in the 36th District, where Sen. James Malone (D-Lancaster) took office after upsetting the Republican candidate in a 2025 special election. Malone was the first Lancaster County Democrat elected to the state Senate since 1879.

“Much of the action, as we’re thinking about the electoral landscape in this state, sort of runs in an arc along the Susquehanna River and up into the Lehigh Valley and east,” Yost said. 

A unified front

Shapiro’s joint campaign effort, known as Rise Up Pennsylvania, is a sign of larger collective action throughout the Democratic Party. 

According to a release, the Pennsylvania House Democratic Campaign Committee has knocked on over 416,000 doors, made over 512,000 calls, and sent over 1.4 million texts in campaign efforts so far this year.

“The idea that you can really run a unified campaign that leverages resources in the most efficient way across races and has common messages is not new,” Borick said. “But I think there’s always the opportunity to say, ‘Can we do this in ways that we haven’t in the past and really capture a moment?’” 

“The Democrats have the potential of a moment here,” he added. 

Shapiro and Pennsylvania Democratic leaders officially launched the initiative earlier this month at an event in Dauphin County. Financial contributions from Shapiro will help Democrats open more offices across the state and continue encouraging constituents to vote. 

“What he’s trying to do here is really unprecedented,” Yost said, noting Shapiro’s use of his significant financial advantage over Garrity to invest $3.3 million in down-ballot races. 

But the GOP sees the midterms as a clear choice for voters. 

“Republicans in Pennsylvania are working hard to bring down costs, cut fraud and waste from our government, and make Pennsylvania a safer place to live and work,” James Malarkey, a spokesperson for the Republican Party of Pennsylvania, wrote in a statement. “Meanwhile, Democrats are embracing radical socialism, expressing hatred for our great nation, and releasing dangerous criminals and convicted murderers onto our streets.” 

Malarkey did not respond to questions from the Capital-Star on whether or not the GOP has any coordinated campaign efforts planned.

Looking ahead

What Shapiro “seems to be looking for here is really to enhance his legacy,” Yost said. “And in the long run, should he choose to run for president in 2028, this gives him a talking point, because you’re not winning the presidency without Pennsylvania.” 

Borick added that November will be “a little bit of a test” for Shapiro, both in terms of controlling the state legislature and for his potential future as a presidential candidate. 

“A lot’s at stake here for him individually, and of course for Democrats,” he said. 

He added that Republicans will “try to expose divisions” within the Democratic Party.

“Someone like Bob Brooks in the Lehigh Valley running for the House is different than Chris Rabb running in the 3rd [District] as a very progressive candidate,” Borick said. “Republicans will try to expose those differences and … try to make all candidates look like the model they think is most problematic for Democrats.” 

Rabb, a current state lawmaker, overtook a crowded primary field in his heavily-Democratic Philadelphia district and is running unopposed in November to replace retiring Democratic U.S. Rep. Dwight Evans. Shapiro did not endorse a candidate prior to that election. 

However, voter turnout will matter more than any of Shapiro’s efforts, Yost said. 

People are “going to vote based on the things that matter to them,” he said. “This is the cost of living. This is inflation. This is concern about sort of what’s happening in the world. To them, it doesn’t really matter who’s running ads for whom, who’s supporting which candidates.”