Skagit River flood forecast ‘an almost unthinkable number’

This article was first published by Cascadia Daily News. Reporters Annie Todd, Julia Tellman and editor Audra Anderson contributed to the story.

SKAGIT COUNTY — Hamilton was quiet Wednesday morning. Flood warnings, a potentially “catastrophic” forecast and a morning evacuation notice from the county were enough to drive many residents who live along the rising waters of the Skagit River to leave town.

Kym Eldridge, the Hamilton town clerk, said people are taking the forecast seriously.

“It’s an almost unthinkable number, 47 [feet],” she said, citing the forecasted height of the river’s crest near Concrete. “A lot of people are worried. This is a worst-case scenario,” she said. “The biggest thing is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. It’s not worth putting yourself in danger.”

The communities of Hamilton, Rockport, Marblemount and Concrete were recommended to evacuate to high ground as soon as possible, Skagit County said Wednesday morning.

Downriver, Mount Vernon Mayor Peter Donovan said if the current prediction holds, Skagit County will be looking at flooding “at a magnitude that we haven’t experienced, at least in recent history.”

[ Read more: What to know about evacuations in Skagit County ]

The 100-year flood plain includes portions of Sedro-Woolley, Burlington, Conway, Hamilton, Birdsview, Rockport, Marblemount, Concrete, La Conner, Lyman and Edison. These areas are also under a flood warning.

Several evacuation sites are open in Concrete, serving anyone in East County who needs them. Like many people working to prepare the region for what might be a record-breaking flood, Lisa Fenley has been up since 3 a.m. this morning.

She’s an administrative assistant at the Concrete School District, which is opening an evacuation site this afternoon.

Having lived in Rockport her whole life, Fenley has experienced plenty of big floods, but said this one seems to have brought the most “notoriety” to the area — the constant alerts and social media chatter have ensured that people are paying attention.

She noted that with the Sauk, Cascade and Baker Rivers all feeding the Skagit, it’s a different river upstream than it is downstream.

“We don’t have the levees or the dikes up here,” she said. But longtime residents generally know how to prepare, and they help newcomers out.

“Everyone here kind of takes care of each other,” Fenley said.

On Wednesday afternoon, District 10 volunteer firefighter Dusty Webb was hanging out at his wife Tracy’s florist and card shop in Concrete while he waits to respond to calls for service.

The fire district is ready to assist people in the lowlands who need help evacuating, but Webb said he’s not too concerned about the possibility of flooding in town — downtown Concrete is significantly higher than the river.

“Tomorrow might be a different story for us,” he said, citing the forecast. He hasn’t experienced any floods in Concrete in his seven years there.

Downriver communities in the flood plain are “preparing for what appears to be a historic flood,” said Burlington Mayor Bill Aslett. “Certainly nothing that I’ve seen in the 40 years I’ve lived here in town.”

“We have probably one of the world’s best dikes protecting Burlington,” he said. “The problem is water can go around either end.” The amount of water expected is likely more than the dikes were intended to hold back, he said.

Weather forecasts this week have been changing day by day, with projections for the second burst of rain this week increasing in severity.

“It just shows you that natural disasters are just that,” Aslett said. “They are unplanned, and they can be pretty significant.”

Mayor Donovan said he is concerned about the strength of the levee system throughout the county.

In Mount Vernon, “I’m hoping — of course, as always — that the flood wall holds,” he said. “But this emergency response that we’ve been preparing for, it’s increasingly looking like it could be a worst-case scenario.”

Donovan was working in the mayor’s office at the time of the 2021 flood, he said, and knows how unpredictable these situations can be.

“I think the residents of our county are people who know about floods,” Donovan said, “and so they’re also people who know about the strength and resiliency it takes to … persevere through an event like this.”

[ Live updates: Flooding in Skagit, Whatcom counties on Wednesday ]

So far, the Skagit River is still contained by its dikes, but late Thursday and early Friday, “is when we will be put to the test,” said Jason Vander Kooy, commissioner for Dike District 1 west of Mount Vernon.

“I’m worried, but we’re doing all we can right now,” he said, noting the district has “multiple operations going” to secure low areas of the dikes.

If the river rises higher than about 37 or 38 feet, “it’s a problem for us.” Vander Kooy is also concerned about water seeping under the dikes.

“Our dikes are in real good shape,” he said. “We’ve done a lot of projects over the last 20 years. But we’re only as strong as our weakest link.”

In Mount Vernon, Maritza Sanchez and her family have been helping bag sand since about 10 a.m. at the Skagit County Fire District 3. Even though where she and her family live in Mount Vernon likely won’t be impacted by the pending floodwaters, it was still important for them to help their community.

“I mean if you don’t do it, who else will,” the 20-year-old said. “Being young and seeing older folks here by themselves and nobody’s helping them, it breaks my heart.”

Eva Wagoner, 27, and her friends loaded up a truck with sandbags in Mount Vernon before driving 20 minutes to Skagit River Chiropractic in Burlington. It was her first stop out of three: the group would go to her mother’s business and her home to offload the rest of the bags.

“It’s supposed to be 10 feet over anything we’ve had before, so anything could happen,” she said while carrying a sandbag. “Upriver, they’re toast.”

Zephyr Berger, 34, was filling his mom’s hatchback with sandbags to be used at her business in Mount Vernon. The family also owns an apple field in Concrete that they think will flood.

Berger said they weren’t preparing for evacuation, but rather they’re “just going to get waterlogged in one particular location.”

“We’re not in any position where we have to evacuate from our homes or anything like that. We’re lucky in that regard.”

Cascadia Daily News is a locally owned newspaper in Bellingham, Washington. You can learn more about the publication and subscribe here.