Barrett’s seat a top target to flip in 2026, James’ gubernatorial bid opens opportunity

Updated at 11 a.m.

In the wake of the 2025 election, where Democrats swept seats from gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, to state legislature special elections in Mississippi, leaders on both sides of the aisle are vying for control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2026. 

For Democrats, two seats in Michigan — the 7th District and the 10th District — could mark chances for big pickups in Michigan. Meanwhile, for Republicans, the 8th District, though it has stayed with the Democrats since 2018, would be the most likely seat for them to flip. 

The midterm elections are expected to be, in many ways, a referendum on President Donald Trump — some saw the 2025 results as a sweeping show of disapproval, and current polling from Reuters shows the same, with his approval rating sitting at 38 percent.

Michigan’s 7th Congressional District is expected to be one of the more competitive House races in 2026 — the seat has flipped in the last two elections, and is seen by many on both sides of the aisle as a key seat to hold for a majority in the House. 

While 2026 will not be a presidential election, the fact of Trump’s influence in this race will be felt.

Meanwhile in the 10th Congressional District, John James’ decision to run for governor and leave his seat open — a decision that was criticized by some in his party, as it leaves a potentially flippable seat without a Republican incumbent. 

He’s the second Michigan representative to leave his House seat for statewide office — Haley Stevens, who represents the 11th District, is leaving to run for Senate. But her seat is expected to be safe for the Democrats, paving the way for a competitive Democratic primary race.

Without James, that would be a major red flag to Republicans about their popularity in the state.

Here’s Michigan Advance’s breakdown of the race thus far, the support each candidate has received and fundraising totals as of the last filing deadline on Sept. 30.

Michigan’s 7th Congressional District

All of Clinton, Ingham, Livingston and Shiawassee counties, as well as parts of Eaton, Oakland and Genesee. 

Currently held by: Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte)

Cash on hand: $1.79 million

Cook Political Report: Toss-Up

Michigan’s 7th Congressional District should be the state’s most competitive House race of the year. Barrett currently serves as the representative for Michigan’s 7th Congressional, which he is seeking re-election for. He ran for the seat first in 2022, when he lost to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin, before running again and winning the seat in 2024. He spent eight years in the state legislature prior to that, and served for over two decades in the U.S. Army and the Michigan Army National Guard. He has faced criticism from constituents for his refusal to host an in-person town hall since being elected to Congress.

The Democrats 

Bridget Brink

Cash on hand: $738,367

Bridget Brink is the former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, who resigned in April over Trump’s favoritism of Russia in Ukraine war peace talks. She spent nearly 30 years in the U.S. Foreign Service, under presidents of both parties. She’s centered her campaign messaging on defending democracy overseas — drawing on her ambassadorial background — and domestically, citing issues like abortion rights. She was endorsed by Michigan State University professor of education policy Josh Cowen when he dropped out of the race in October.

Bridget Brink, who resigned as US ambassador to Ukraine, announces Michigan congressional run

Matthew Maasdam

Cash on hand: $395,261

Matt Maasdam is a Navy SEAL veteran, served as President Barack Obama’s military aide, and became a business owner after serving. He has also listed his priorities as affordability, defending democracy and civil rights, and reshoring jobs and manufacturing. 

William Lawrence

Cash on hand: $192,414

William Lawrence is a Lansing-born activist who co-founded the environmental activism group Sunrise Movement and a founder of the Mid-Michigan Tenant Resource Center. Lawrence has a detailed and lengthy policy platform, which he says the center of is security. Specifics of the platform include affordable housing, support for unions and public schools, and a path to legal citizenship for immigrants. 

Muhammad Salman Rais

Cash on hand: $0

Muhammad Salman Rais is a Family Medicine Doctor in Dewitt. He previously ran for Michigan House of Representatives in 2020, losing in a general election, and for the Michigan State Senate in 2022, losing in the primary. In 2024, he ran for a county commissioner seat in Clinton County, losing with around 46 percent of the vote.

Barrett staffer claims Capitol Police instructed against town halls, no evidence of such guidance

Samuel Smeltzer, also known as “Elyon Badger”

Cash on hand: $0

Elyon Badger, whose legal name is Samuel Smeltzer, is a a Michigan Army National Guard veteran, LGBTQIA+ activist, and small business owner who has made federal marijuana legalization a central point of his platform — often showing up to events like the No Kings protest in a suit patterned with cannabis leaves. Other elements of his platform include high-speed rail and universal healthcare. 

Alexandra Prieditis

Cash on hand: info not in the Federal Election Commission database

Alexandra Prieditis is an artist and human rights activist who has centered her campaign on personal freedoms and choice in reproductive rights and healthcare, as well as supporting small businesses and local farmers. Prieditis has not yet filed with the FEC, and her campaign website is asking for signatures for her ballot petition. 

Michigan’s 8th Congressional District

All of Bay and Saginaw counties, most of Genesee County, and a portion of Midland and Tuscola counties; includes the cities of Flint, Bay City, Midland and Saginaw.

Currently held by: Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City)

Cash on hand: $1.96 million

Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat

Michigan’s 8th Congressional District, which swung to the Democrats in 2018 and has stayed blue since. Prior to her time in Congress, Rivet served one term in the Michigan Senate, before which she worked in various leadership positions, including at the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services and in the office of the State Superintendent of Public Instruction. She has made affordability and health care central to her campaign, as well as preventing cuts to Social Security benefits. 

The Republican 

Amir Hassan

Cash on hand: $110,323

Amir Hassan is a Navy veteran and a former federal law enforcement officer who has strongly aligned himself with President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda, including opposition to abortion and slashing income taxes. Hassan himself is a proud Muslim, and has made strong support for Israel a major issue on his campaign, saying that in his time in the Navy, he saw “extremists who pervert Islam into something evil.”

Michigan’s 10th Congressional District

Parts of Macomb County and Oakland County.

Currently held by: Rep. John James (R-Shelby Twp.), a 2026 candidate for Governor

Cook Political Report: Lean Republican

Michigan’s 10th Congressional District has been held by Republicans since 2003, and James has held the seat for two terms. He’s now leaving the seat to run for governor — a move that was not popular among some Republican strategists, who worry that not having an incumbent would make it a better target for Democrats seeking to flip the seat.  

The Democrats

Eric Chung

Cash on hand: $578,290

Eric Chung is a former U.S. Department of Commerce attorney and worked with the Senate Judiciary Committee and the Civil Rights Division at the Department of Justice. Chung’s campaign has centered reshoring manufacturing and jobs, citing his work on the CHIPS and Science Act in 2022. He was also one of the first endorsements this cycle from the Equality PAC, which supports LGBTQ+ candidates, and would be the first openly LGBTQ+ person to represent Michigan at the federal level. 

Former Commerce lawyer Eric Chung jumps into race for Michigan’s 10th Congressional District

Tim Greimel

Cash on hand: $389,118

Tim Greimel is the mayor of Pontiac, and served in the Michigan House of Representatives for six years, including a four-year stint as the minority leader of the chamber. He told the Advance when he launched his campaign that he was focusing his campaign on economic issues, including affordability and jobs. 

Christina Hines

Cash on hand: $206,382

Christina Hines is a former special victims prosecutor — she served as an assistant prosecuting attorney in Wayne County before heading up the Special Victims Unit in Washtenaw County. Her campaign priorities include affordability and standing up to the Trump administration, per her website. She was endorsed by U.S. Army National Guard and Navy Veteran Tripp Adams, who dropped out of the race in August. 

The Republicans 

Robert Lulgjuraj

Cash on hand: $577,042

Robert Lulgjuraj is a prosecutor with the Macomb County Prosecutor’s Office, and has been involved in Republican politics and the conservative Federalist Society since his time in law school. His campaign website lists border security, election integrity, and “America First” as among his top priorities. 

Steven Elliot

Cash on hand: $9,087

Steven Elliot is a Marine Corps veteran and a tattoo studio owner in the Detroit area. His priorities include border security, jobs and family values.

GOP at Mackinac: John James loses straw poll, signaling messy gubernatorial race to come

Casey Armitage

Cash on hand: $553

Casey Armitage, who calls herself “Blue Collar Casey,” is a stay-at-home mom who has been active in local conservative circles, including as president of the Michigan Open Carry, Inc. Board of Directors. Her campaign website touts her background growing up in a blue-collar family of union members, and emphasizes that she does not come from a political elite background. 

Cody Ingram

Cash on hand: $0

Cody Ingram is a podiatrist in Troy, though he appears to have no political presence online, including a campaign website or dedicated campaign social media. 

Michael Bouchard

Cash on hand: $0

Mike Bouchard is an Army paratrooper veteran, a member of the Army National Guard and the son of the longtime sheriff of Oakland County, Michigan Michael Bouchard. His campaign website lists the economy, immigration and education — including parental rights — as the key issues that he is running on.

This story was updated to reflect that Alexander Hawkins is no longer a candidate for Michigan’s 10th Congressional District.