An independent choice in Washington’s 5th Congressional District

Oregonians have a front-row seat to watch, though not vote in, an obscure congressional race that could say much about the reshaping of partisan politics in this state and beyond.

I’m not talking about Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, now held by Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, which saw the state’s closest congressional elections for the past two election cycles and may again this year, though, it’s certainly a race to watch.

No, the Evergreen State contest of greatest interest ahead of the Aug. 4 primary is on the east side of the state, just north of Hermiston and Milton-Freewater and Enterprise, in the 5th district stretching from Oregon to Canada.

The reason is the uncertainty thrown into the works by — wait for it — an independent candidate. And independents, whether of the same-named party or actually non-aligned, always are a big factor in Oregon.

The district, mostly rural but centered around Spokane, seems an unlikely magnet for close attention because there have been no close general elections there in many years. This was the district Democrat Tom Foley, who rose to speaker of the House, represented for three decades before his loss in the Republican sweep of 1994.

Republicans have held it in the 32 years since, first George Nethercutt, then Cathy McMorris Rodgers, and since 2025, Michael Baumgartner.

None of those Republicans have had a close call in all these years. A few of the Democratic candidates have been highly capable and well positioned, but even the strongest of them – Lisa Brown, a long-time state legislator and current mayor of Spokane — could do no better than fall nearly 10 points short.

Still, while Donald Trump won this district in the last two elections, he did so both times with a blah 54% of the vote. The Cook Partisan Index gives the district a mere 5% Republican lean, suggesting it could be competitive. In this year of mid-term discontent, might Baumgartner be at some risk?

There’s at least one reason to think so: Baumgartner himself has left an indicator to that effect.

His opposition heading into the primary includes 11 candidates, an unusually large field almost evenly divided between Democrats and independents (meaning, not associated with a party). Just two of these 11 seem to be well ahead of the others: Democrat Carmela Conroy and independent Nate Powell.

Conroy has been around this track once before: She ran against Baumgartner two years ago and lost to him 60.6% to 39.3%, a normal partisan result for this district in this century.

She has made the argument that she’d be a stronger and better established candidate the second time, and that Baumgartner would be weaker because of problems associated with the Trump administration. Baumgartner has been an across the board Trump loyalist in the House, including on issues like tariffs and the Iran war which are highly unpopular back home.  

Powell, a Spokane firefighter, Marine veteran and first-time candidate, has a different take: Go after not only Trump but the political system. He said in one news report, “The problems we’re facing are not left-right issues. They are top-bottom issues, because we have let billionaires and large corporations pay lobbyists to buy politicians to own our government, and until we fix the problem of corporations being overrepresented in our government, we will never be able to support working people.”

He sounds, in other words, like many of the anti-Trump insurgents, such as fellow independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska.

At this point we need to remember, as Baumgartner clearly does, how Washington’s primary system works. It’s a top two, meaning that the two candidates who receive the highest number of votes in Tuesday’s primary election will go on to November, regardless of which if any party they have joined. Baumgartner clearly will be one of the finalists, but who will be the other?

Here’s a clue: Baumgartner is spending a good deal of money on an ad purporting to attack Conroy, in terms that make her sound appealing to Democratic primary voters. 

Conroy does have, or did as of recent reports, a fundraising advantage over Powell. But Powell is getting significant funding from PACs, to the tune of at least $800,000, including one that provided critical help to Gluesenkamp Perez in 2022.

One of those high-frequency ads describes Powell as the “only candidate who will fight for Medicare for All, beat Baumgartner, and stop Trump.” The race between the two of them seems highly competitive.

If Powell wins, he would not have to worry about a Democrat competing with him for anti-Baumgartner votes. 

That would make a useful test — courtesy of Washington’s top-two election system — for the theory that an independent running head to head against a Republican (or Democrat) in a district dominated by that opponent’s party might have a shot at winning.

Keep an eye on Washington’s 5th District.