McKee’s lucky day at ballot placement lottery

Gov. Dan McKee won the top spot on the Sept. 9 Democratic primary ballot in a lottery conducted at the Rhode Island Department of State’s Elections Division in Providence Friday, a welcome stroke of luck for a reelection campaign that has weathered some setbacks.

The first place on the ballot is usually reserved for the party-endorsed candidate. But ballot placement was at the mercy of a retired Rhode Island Lottery ball machine now owned by the Department of State. That’s because the state’s Democratic Party declined to endorse either McKee or his main rival, Helena Bounanno Foulkes, at its convention on June 20.

McKee became the first sitting governor in recent history to not win his party’s endorsement. He also missed out on an influential endorsement from the Rhode Island AFL-CIO, which declined to back a Democratic governor candidate on Wednesday. 

Party endorsements reward candidates with the top ballot spot and an asterisk next to their name. While McKee will go without that asterisk, research suggests being the first name on a ballot advantages a candidate, said Matt Ulricksen, an associate professor of political science at the Community College of Rhode Island. 

That advantage is greatest in races where voters know less about the candidates and default to whichever name is at the top, Ulricksen said. While McKee could get a “modest bump” from coming first, Ulricksen said it won’t matter as much in the Democratic governor race, where most voters are familiar with the candidates.

“Any bump that McKee gets from first placement on the ballot likely will not be sufficient to overcome the gap,” Ulricksen said.

Foulkes maintained a double-digit lead over McKee in a June 30 University of New Hampshire (UNH) poll even though he has been closing the gap. His support had doubled to 22% since UNH’s last poll in April, though his challenger still comfortably led with 42%.

Foulkes and McKee were the only two Democratic gubernatorial candidates to collect enough verified signatures to qualify for the ballot. The winner of the primary will face the Republican nominee — either party-endorsed Aaron Guckian or Elaine Pelino — as well as three independents in the Nov. 3 general election. 

Friday’s lottery was conducted by Director of Elections Kathy Placencia, who announced which numbered balls had been assigned to candidates before placing them in the lottery machine before flicking the switch to blast them with air to circulate them.

About a dozen people watched the lottery in person while approximately 30 viewers logged in to watch the livestream of the event.

Block first among gubernatorial independents on Nov. 3 ballot

The lottery determined the order of the independents on the November ballot to be Ken Block, Jay Gotra and Christopher Reynolds. 

The state’s Democratic Party also failed to endorse a candidate for lieutenant governor and attorney general, leaving ballot placement in those races up to chance. 

Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos won the top spot on the primary ballot for lieutenant governor. She has four Democratic challengers. After Matos, the ballot order will be Susan AnderBois, Ross McCurdy, Cyndy Coyne and Xaykham “Xay” Khansyvoravong. 

In the Democratic primary for attorney general, Jason Knight was Friday’s lucky winner to go first on the ballot. He will be followed in order by Joseph Solomon, Jr., Keith Hoffman and Kimberly Ahern. The Democratic nominee will face Republican Alan Gordon in November. 

“For the Democratic primaries for attorney general and lieutenant governor, especially because those candidates are less well known — in fact, they might be entirely unknown to many primary voters — ballot placement will count for more,” Ulricksen said. 

The Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor will face the only Republican candidate, party-endorsed John Loughlin.

Independent Mabel Martinez also pulled papers for the office but was 33 signatures short of the 500 threshold to qualify for the ballot Friday afternoon, according to a portal on the Secretary of State’s website. She told Rhode Island Current she was unable to challenge her verified signature count by the 4 p.m. deadline Friday because she had not received the required paperwork in time. 

The lottery also decided the order in which the state’s two political parties will appear on the general election ballot. Thanks to lucky No. 2, Republican candidates will precede their Democratic opponents in November. 

That means that the name of Republican Micholas Credle, the state party’s endorsed candidate, appears first on the November ballot in the race for general treasurer. The Democratic party’s endorsed candidate, General Treasurer James Diossa, who is unopposed in the primary, will be second.

Party-endorsed Democratic Secretary of State Gregg Amore is seeking reelection. A Democratic challenger, Anthony Tamba, declared his candidacy for secretary of state but came up 30 signatures short of the 500 needed on his nomination papers submitted for validation and certification by local and state elections officials. Tamba told Rhode Island Current he filed a challenge on Wednesday but withdrew it on Friday.