One number can’t define South Dakota’s economy

Leadership begins with intellectual honesty—the basic skill of describing reality before claiming the authority to fix it.

Anyone asking to lead South Dakota should first demonstrate the ability to read a chart without turning it into performance art. 

Which is why a recent claim by gubernatorial candidate Toby Doeden deserves a closer look.

This week, Doeden wrote on Facebook that “South Dakota ranks dead last in economic growth for the entire nation.”

That is a dramatic statement.

It also contains a grain of truth—enough to season his posts, but not enough to justify them.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that South Dakota posted the nation’s lowest real GDP growth (-1.6%) in the first quarter of 2026, driven largely by declines in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting.

That is a real number.

It is also a single quarter.

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One quarter earlier, South Dakota ranked second (+3.0%) in the nation. Agriculture-heavy states can swing sharply as commodity prices, production cycles and export markets shift. Anyone familiar with the industry knows this.

A quarterly GDP report is a snapshot—valuable, but incomplete.

That distinction matters.

Words matter.

Especially when they come from someone asking to become governor.

The first-quarter GDP report isn’t the only  measure of South Dakota’s vitality.

Another source is the State of the Nation Project’s South Dakota Economy page, which ranks South Dakota 50th in its Economy category.

Ironically, the same report ranks South Dakota first in Work and Labor Force, first in Civil Liberties and sixth in Social Capital. Its Economy category is based primarily on output and productivity, not a blanket declaration that South Dakota is an economic wasteland.

Even the report most helpful to Doeden’s argument doesn’t flatten South Dakota into a single number. It stops short of suggesting that one ranking defines South Dakota. Those seeking to lead it should show the same restraint.

Other respected organizations reach different conclusions because they ask different questions. The U.S. News Best States rankings place South Dakota among the nation’s top-performing states overall. The Tax Foundation’s State Tax Competitiveness Index consistently ranks South Dakota among the best business tax climates. Other national scorecards highlight fiscal stability, employment strength and business competitiveness.

None of these rankings prove South Dakota has a flawless economy or erase the concerns raised by the BEA’s first-quarter report.

Together, they demonstrate something more important: the answer depends on which question you’re asking.

No single statistic can answer them all.

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Agriculture is under strain. Commodity prices remain weak. Input costs remain high. Tariffs have created uncertainty in export markets. Geopolitical instability contributed to higher fuel prices. Farmers and ranchers are making difficult decisions, and those pressures ripple through equipment dealers, lenders, manufacturers and Main Street businesses across the state.

Those are serious challenges that deserve serious solutions.

But they are not the whole story.

South Dakota continues to maintain one of the nation’s lowest unemployment rates. Employers report thousands of open jobs. Sales tax collections exceed both last year’s pace and legislative forecasts.

Ellsworth Air Force Base is undergoing the largest expansion in its history. Sioux Falls continues to attract investment, while manufacturing, health care and construction projects move forward across the state.

This is not an economy without challenges. It is an economy with strengths and weaknesses—like every other state. That’s why reducing it to a single statistic doesn’t help voters understand it.

It mistakes one indicator for the whole economy. 

South Dakota’s economy is built every morning by manufacturers opening their doors, farmers climbing into tractors, contractors heading to job sites, retailers serving customers, lenders financing new ventures and entrepreneurs willing to risk everything on an idea.

Those South Dakotans deserve leaders who describe their work as honestly as they perform it.  

Because governors don’t have the luxury of governing by slogans. They have to govern by facts.

The higher the office, the higher the standard.