Nerding the numbers: These 7 parishes propelled Julia Letlow to victory

There are two things I look forward to ahead of Election Day, and both involve an intense passion for fine details.

One is the obligatory newsroom pizza binge, and God help the soul who takes liberties with ordering. It’s not the time to go rogue with an artisan crust or bespoke toppings.

The other eagerly anticipated element is a post-election, nerd-mode exploration of the numbers behind the results. Each election cycle births enough data to sustain weeks of analysis from geeks like me.

For the purposes of this breakdown, we’re going to drill down into how Republican U.S. Sen.-elect Julia Letlow eked out a win against the aggressive ground game of Democrat Jamie Davis. Her 25,857-vote margin of victory, less than 2% of the total vote, hinged on strong performances in the following parishes:

St. Tammany

Most people sleep on the fact that St. Tammany, a dependable Republican base for decades, is the state’s fourth-most populous parish. Letlow received 63% support here, almost 64,000 votes. That was 26,000 more than Davis. 

It’s also not far off what GOP U.S. Sen. John Kennedy received in his home parish for his 2022 re-election bid. Kennedy exceeded 68,000 votes to win outright in an open primary against a weak field.    

Tuesday’s total for Letlow was also considerably higher than what Republicans in the 2023 governor’s race pulled from St. Tammany. That ballot featured frontrunner Jeff Landry and two GOP candidates from the parish — state Sen. Sharon Hewitt and Treasurer John Schroder — and all three combined received about 16,000 votes less than Letlow did this week.

Livingston

The ninth largest parish in the state also has a strong conservative track record in elections, and it provided Letlow with one of her largest margins of victory on the night — 73%. She came close to beating Davis by 20,000 votes here. 

By comparison, Landry received 68% support in Livingston when he won the governor’s race outright in the October 2023 open primary.

Lafayette 

Landry easily carried his home parish in 2023 with 61% support, totaling more than 35,000 votes. Even though Letlow only received 55% of the vote Tuesday, her vote total was more than 8,000 more than the governor’s count three years ago. 

She also collected 3,000 more votes than all Republicans in the most recent governor’s race combined.

Ouachita

The Monroe-area was Letlow’s longtime home before she moved her family last year to Baton Rouge, parts of which were added to her 5th Congressional District in a 2024 redrawing. Most of her academic career before entering politics was spent at the University of Louisiana at Monroe.

Those roots proved valuable on Election Day, when Ouachita Parish delivered 25,451 votes for Letlow. Davis trailed her by 4,600. 

Calcasieu

One of Letlow’s more resounding wins was in Calcasieu Parish, where she pulled in 59% of the vote. Davis finished nearly 11,000 votes behind her. 

The 33,195 votes Letlow garnered were 11,000 more than Landry received in 2023, when Lake Charles attorney Hunter Lundy, an independent, was in the governor’s race. 

Vermilion

Vermilion is a rather small parish that’s been making a lot of big news. SpaceX is moving ahead with plans for a $100 billion spaceport on Pecan Island, and this was the first major election involving a candidate with President Donald Trump’s backing. That’s notable because Trump, as recently as Monday, claims to have recommended a Louisiana location to Elon Musk for his next launch facility.  

If you’re to read anything into the Senate race results, it’s that Vermilion voters seem to be on board with their Republican leaders’ vision for the parish. Of their more than 17,000 ballots, 12,500 went to Letlow.

Jefferson

Yes, Letlow finished behind Davis in Louisiana’s second largest parish with 46% of the vote. But the more than 60,000 votes she received there helped eat away at the advantage her opponent posted in some of the state’s Democratic strongholds.  

Letlow’s losing total in Jefferson was fifth best among Republicans in statewide elections who have won the parish since 2019.