The GOP gerrymander didn’t work. And it hurt Tommy Tuberville.

The Alabama Legislature could try to redraw Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District again.

If Republicans are unhappy with Shomari Figures’ decisive victory Tuesday, they can change the borders. The U.S. Supreme Court said this spring that the Legislature can do anything it wants with congressional districts. So long as they’re “political gerrymanders,” of course. Don’t explicitly say you’re trying to mute the voice of Black voters. Just blurt “Democrats,” and you’ll be fine.

So have at it. Draw more of Elmore County (73% white) in and more of Montgomery County (59% Black) out.

But after Tuesday, they should seriously reconsider.

The main reason, of course, is the blatant racism. Alabama Republicans in the last several years, like many of their peers in Congress and the federal government, brazenly pursued policies to dilute Black voting power.

They’ve criminalized some forms of absentee ballot assistance, citing a dubious claim that it could result in fraud. (In the process, a federal judge had to order the state to let blind, illiterate or disabled voters get help with their ballots.)

And two years ago, when Alabama elected two Black U.S. representatives to Congress for the first time in history, state Republican officials didn’t accept the popular will. They continued to pursue a lawsuit to eliminate one of those voting districts.

The U.S. Supreme Court, which stopped the creation of a near-majority Black district months before the 2022 midterms, eagerly allowed the state to destroy it within an even shorter timeframe in 2026. Silencing Black Alabamians meant far more than consistency or orderly election administration.  

But if you’re a Republican watching what all that wrought, you may want to consider the tactical problems.

The Republicans’ major mistake was assuming they could repress Black voters without pushback. Black voters quickly disabused them of that idea.

All five days of the May special legislative redistricting session featured protests. And because Republican lawmakers were still tied up in litigation over the maps, they could say nothing in defense of their moves, ceding the stage to Black voters and Democrats.

When Republicans passed the maps, Black voters helped drive a surge of Democratic voting in the May 19 primary.

And they came out on Tuesday. In majority-Black Montgomery County, turnout increased 39% over 2022. In Jefferson County, about 42% Black, turnout jumped 25%.

Then there was Figures himself.

At the start of his time in the U.S. House, Figures lived in Mobile, a city his mother Vivian has represented in the Alabama Senate for nearly 30 years and his father Michael represented before his death in 1996. The new district lines cut Figures out. Perhaps the GOP thought Figures would retire from the House or try running in the 1st Congressional District, which includes Mobile.

Figures, though, moved to Montgomery and waged a fierce campaign. He used his incumbency to amass a large war chest as Republicans spent weeks campaigning ahead of an Aug. 11 primary.

When the general campaign began against Rep. Rhett Marques of Enterprise, the Republican nominee, Figures showed he could give as good as he got. Marques and Republicans called Figures a socialist. Figures attacked Marques over his 2019 vote to raise the gas tax — a measure supported by most lawmakers. President Donald Trump called Figures a “communist.” Figures took the opportunity to attack Marques over the gas tax again. A barrage of ads attacking Marques, some from PACs funded by Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, tore at the Republican nominee for weeks.

Figures proved to have political discipline and skills like his parents. Once Montgomery County reported Tuesday night, the race was over.

The Republican gerrymander had another effect.

The Wiregrass runs through the 2nd Congressional District. It’s considered one of the most reliably Republican areas in the state. A GOP nominee who can run up the score there should be in good shape.

Unless you’ve mobilized almost every Black voter to come out to the polls. That sank Marques and sent fallout beyond the district. Black voters held down GOP margins throughout the Wiregrass. Kay Ivey got 77% of the vote in Houston County in 2022; Tommy Tuberville on Tuesday got 63%. Ivey got 78% of the vote in Dale; Tuberville got 67%. Ivey got 59% of the vote in Barbour County; Democrat Doug Jones won it with 52% of the vote on Tuesday.

If you’re looking for reasons why the Jones/Tuberville battle was close, that was a big one. Legislative Republicans managed to damage a key GOP base.

There is nothing stopping Republicans from going after the 2nd Congressional District again.

But they may want to pause before they do. Because the attempt to grab one U.S. House seat almost cost them a lot more.