Analysts shift Kansas’ US Senate race from ‘safe R’ to ‘likely R’ — a small change with big impact

TOPEKA — National election forecasters softened their ratings in Kansas’ U.S. Senate race following a Kansas City-area pastor’s Democratic primary win, prodding Democrats to build the momentum necessary to topple nearly a century of Republican dominance.

The Rev. Adam Hamilton beat out 10 Democratic opponents with roughly 35% of votes, propelling him to a November face-off with incumbent U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall. Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia and the Cook Political Report adjusted their ratings in the race, continuing to favor a Republican winner but offering a Democrat a bit more wiggle room.

Both shifted their race ratings from “safe” or “solidly” Republican to “likely” Republican — a slight change with larger implications.

“Democrats have won many gubernatorial races in Kansas, but Senate races have eluded them: The last Democratic Senate win in Kansas was nearly a century ago, in 1932, which was Franklin Roosevelt’s first election,” wrote Kyle Kondik, the managing editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

Kondik continued: “So this is definitely a long shot, although Hamilton out-raised incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) $3.7 million to $610,000 last quarter.”

Marshall had more cash on hand throughout the race.

Payton Fuller, a spokesperson for Marshall’s campaign, said Marshall surpassed all Democratic candidates in the primary. He received more than 267,700 votes to Hamilton’s 76,700 votes.

“Adam Hamilton lost Wichita and nearly every rural county, indeed proving he’s too woke for Kansas,” Fuller said.

Hamilton carried the strongest margins in eastern Kansas and struggled in parts of central and western Kansas where veteran and small business operator Noah Taylor performed well, according to unofficial election results.

The Cook Political Report said the general election race moved “into a potentially more competitive position” after Hamilton’s primary win.

“Experts all around the country are catching up to what we’ve known in Kansas for months,” said Tyson Brody, a spokesperson for Hamilton’s campaign. “Kansans are tired of high prices, endless war, and a senator who only pretends to live in Kansas.”

Marshall’s residency has been the subject of scrutiny since entering the Senate. He is an OB-GYN from Great Bend, and owns a home there, but reporting by The Kansas City Star in 2024 uncovered recurring official trips to a vacation home in Florida.

Hamilton is the co-founder of the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection in Leawood. It has nine campuses across the Kansas City-metro and has become the largest Methodist church in the country.