No silver bullet, no single fuel: What Texas can teach the Carolinas about energy resilience

What do record-setting heat waves, hurricane season, and severe droughts all have in common? They all create strain on the power grid, threaten reliability, and drive up costs.

Duke Energy, which serves customers throughout the Carolinas, forecasts a demand increase eight times the pace of the prior 15 years due to economic development, population growth, and electrification. Managing energy affordability and reliability will be a balancing act, and energy experts across the political spectrum recognize that no single resource will be a silver bullet. What we do need is an “all of the above” energy approach.

A state that has fully embraced that approach is one you may not at first expect, yet it should get a gold (lone) star for its balanced generation mix. Texas has always been a major energy producer, but over the last decade it has invested in enough renewable energy to produce almost half of its total energy supply. This growth in renewable energy is not attributed to climate goals. It is driven by lower costs and long-term planning.

Wind and solar are among the cheapest and fastest forms of new energy generation. Texas has taken advantage of these low-cost resources and emerged as a clean energy leader by adding roughly 14,000 MW of wind and 19,000 MW of solar in five years. As a result, renewables generate 30% of the state’s electricity — enough to power nearly 10 million homes.

In North Carolina, renewables provide about 15% of electricity generation, while South Carolina remains closer to 8%. While both states have made progress in solar expansion in recent years, and North Carolina has two utility-scale wind projects online, the pace of development is much slower.

When it comes to energy, Texas and the Carolinas do have a few things in common. First, they both need affordable energy that is not affected by fluctuating fuel prices, and second, they need a reliable system during times of peak demand. Wind and solar check both of these boxes. They are quick-to-deploy resources that prove valuable during extreme weather and peak demand periods. They also apply downward pressure on energy costs by allowing utilities to use free renewable energy first, reducing the need to run more expensive resources.

History shows us that natural gas prices spike dramatically during severe weather events, which ultimately impacts ratepayers. By investing in fuel-free resources like wind and solar, Texas has built a more diversified resource mix that protects customers from sudden swings in fuel costs. During extreme conditions, such as hurricanes and winter storms, wind, solar, and battery storage help keep electricity affordable by stabilizing prices and reducing reliance on expensive fuel purchases.

People often criticize wind and solar because they aren’t considered baseload generation, but this overlooks the fact that grid operators can predict how much energy they will produce days in advance. Fossil fuels have reliability challenges too. Fuel supplies and prices can be disrupted by extreme weather or global events, often with little warning. Extreme weather can compromise gas infrastructure just as demand peaks, creating reliability challenges and price spikes. Unlike renewable variability, these problems are hard to predict and difficult for grid operators to control.

The July 4th weekend was one of the hottest stretch of the summer so far, and electricity demand climbed with the heat. Off the coast of New York, South Fork Wind ran at an average capacity factor of 74.7%. That included a capacity factor of nearly 90% on July 2, the day that the New York Independent System Operator issued an energy watch due to a decline in operating margins.

While summer loads remain critical, planning forecasts project that the combined winter peak demand for Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress will grow by more than 6,000 megawatts over the next 25 years—an increase of more than 20% over today’s system. Wind energy tends to produce strongly during winter peak periods, making it well-positioned to help meet growing winter demand, strengthen grid resilience, and diversify the Carolinas’ energy mix against future extreme weather events.

The Carolinas are staring at a future of growth and pressure on an aging system. As we plan for tomorrow’s energy needs, we can’t pretend that every resource does the same job. Texas has recognized the economic and energy security benefits of an “all of the above” strategy. It’s time for the Carolinas to build a portfolio that is less fragile, less exposed to fuel shocks, and more predictable over time. A resilient grid.

Jocelyn Juliano is program manager at the Southeastern Wind Coalition in Chapel Hill, N.C.