Standout stats from Louisiana’s US Senate party runoffs

The victory margins Congresswoman Julia Letlow and Jaime Davis posted in their respective U.S. Senate party runoffs Saturday were indeed eye-catching. But a closer look at the results reveals some telling trends about elections in Louisiana.

Voter turnout

Official statewide voter turnout figures won’t be known for a few weeks, as the Secretary of State works with local officials to confirm numbers.

Unofficially, what we know is that nearly 513,000 ballots were cast in the U.S. Senate party runoffs, and Louisiana had more than 2.97 million registered voters as of June 1. That would mean 17% of voters decided who meets in the November general election.

Saturday’s turnout was down significantly from the May primary, when 32% of Republicans and Democrats went to polling precincts statewide.

Runoffs typically draw fewer voters than primaries, but this was the first election cycle in Louisiana to use a semi-closed party primary system since state lawmakers approved the switch in 2024. No-party voters were allowed to take part, but they must stick with their party choice in the primary and runoff.

Prior to this year, Louisiana used open primaries for its elections, with candidates from all parties placed on the same ballot, almost exclusively for 50 years. In recent decades, turnout for U.S. Senate “jungle” primaries consistently topped 40%.

Republican advantage

As of June 1, the number of registered Democrats and Republicans in Louisiana were virtually dead even. Yet for Saturday’s Senate race, GOP voters outnumbered Democrats by 120,438.

All signs heading into the election pointed to Davis easily defeating his opponent, Gary Crockett, and he followed through by claiming all 64 parishes. But the meager showing from Democrats could be interpreted as its members accepting the strong likelihood  that Letlow is the hands-down favorite in November’s general election.

Letlow’s big red sweep

Letlow won in seven of the eight parishes where more than 10,000 Republican ballots were cast, claiming St. Tammany, Jefferson, Ouachita, Livingston and Calcasieu.

Her opponent, Treasurer John Fleming, was close behind in East Baton Rouge and Lafayette and won Rapides handily.

Fleming and Letlow fought to a draw in Bossier Parish with exactly 4,351 votes each, but the rest of his strong showing was limited to a less populous swath of western Louisiana.

Davis outperforms Fleming

The final vote count for Davis reached surpassed 156,000 in Saturday’s runoff, giving him 20,000 more votes than Fleming garnered in the Republican race.

Davis, by far, got more bang for his campaign buck when compared with Fleming. According to Federal Elections Commission reports, Davis spent just under $850,000 this election cycle compared with more than $11 million from Fleming.

Trump trend

So far, President Donald Trump is on a good run of picking winners in U.S. Senate contests. Letlow is the fourth Senate candidate he has endorsed to win their party runoff this year, and 13 other Trump picks have won their primaries. Five other Trump-backed Republicans await their primary races.

Republicans hold the majority in the U.S. Senate with 53 seats, and four seats are currently considered toss-ups in this year’s election cycle. Those races — in Alaska, Maine, Michigan and Ohio — are being watched the closest as Democrats try to close the gap.