Victory doesn’t always go to the loudest candidate

It was Primary Election Day, June 4, 2002, and I had things pretty well covered for the Wednesday edition of the Pierre Capital Journal. This was back in the day when newspapers still had staffs. I had three reporters assigned to cover various local elections, figuring I would rely on coverage from The Associated Press for the statewide races. Thinking I had everything handled, my son and I settled in Tuesday night to watch the Twins play Cleveland.

It turned into one of those games that Twins fans dream about. For one night, the Twins’ roster turned into a hitting machine instead of just a proofreader’s nightmare — Koskie, Pierzynski, Mientkiewicz. Pitches must have looked as big as grapefruit for Twins hitters, and most of them fell unmolested in the outfield. It looked like it was going to be a great night for baseball.

And then the phone rang.

The caller was Joe Kafka, one of the two Associated Press reporters stationed in Pierre. But he wasn’t in Pierre. Joe, along with the entire AP staff, was in Sioux Falls. They predicted that was where the action would be for the end of the three-way race for the Republican nomination for governor. Mark Barnett and Steve Kirby both had their campaign headquarters in Sioux Falls. Those two candidates had been slinging mud at each other for weeks, and the smart money said that one of them would get the nomination.

Well, the smart money was wrong. Joe explained that projections showed that Mike Rounds was going to get the nomination. Rounds, who had run a more low-key campaign, was at his election headquarters in Pierre. The AP didn’t have anyone in town to take a picture of the likely nominee. Joe asked if I could get a picture of Rounds and transmit it to the Sioux Falls bureau.

I realized that the Capital Journal, as an AP member, had an obligation to take the picture. I could handle that part, but as far as transmitting it to the AP, that was foreign to me. Forgive my ignorance, but I always had people.

One of those people was my wire editor. I corralled him at his night job at the public library. I wouldn’t say he was eager to return to the newspaper office when his shift at the library was done, but he said he would be there.

Rounds’ campaign headquarters was in a former gas station. The price must have been right on the rent and there was plenty of parking. The only downfall was the disappointment in folks who didn’t realize there was a new tenant when they wandered in to buy lottery tickets. Taking the picture was easy enough. Rounds saw my camera and knew right away what I was after. We chatted a while and I even got enough material for a decent feature story about the Election Night mood at his headquarters.

Honest, there is a point to this stroll down Memory Lane. This year’s GOP gubernatorial primary may have an outcome as surprising as the election in 2002. If anything, Mike Rounds’ victory showed that voters don’t necessarily gravitate to the candidate who’s the loudest or has the most negative things to say about his opponent.

Something like that may be playing out in this year’s primary. All of the candidates have taken some shots, but it’s obvious that U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson has really zeroed in on Gov. Larry Rhoden, emphasizing whenever he can the governor’s signature on three recent bills allowing for higher sales taxes. For his part, Rhoden seems befuddled about why anyone would label his plan for lowering property taxes as a tax increase.

Their exchange took a sinister turn when Rhoden told a gathering of journalists at the South Dakota NewsMedia Association convention that through an intermediary, Johnson warned him not to get in the race lest he be swamped with negative ads financed by a dark money political action committee. Johnson has denied the allegation, though he admits to agreeing with what the ads say about Rhoden.

While they slug it out like Barnett and Kirby, it offers one of the other candidates in the race the chance to pull a Rounds-like upset.

From the way he has gained in polling — from next to nothing to the middle of the pack — that upset role could go to state Speaker of the House Jon Hansen, who has been good about staying on message. Republican voters may turn to a candidate who emphasizes his Christian and conservative values if they tire of all the Johnson-Rhoden mudslinging.

Tougher to figure is the voters’ reaction to Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden. A new KELO poll has Doeden leading Johnson 26% to 23%. That goes to show that if you spend $4 million of your own money, you may end up within the margin of error. The KELO poll is in contrast with the latest South Dakota News Watch-Chiesman Center for Democracy poll that found Doeden’s unfavorable rating at 35%.

As we slog through the month of May toward the June 2 primary election, these candidates should keep in mind the lessons from the past. It seems that picking a fight isn’t the only way to win an election. South Dakota voters proved that in 2002.

As for the trip down Memory Lane, it was a good night for the AP. Relying on a technologically challenged editor, they got the photo of Rounds they needed in time for the morning newspapers. It was a good night for Rounds, who got the nomination. It was a good night for the Twins, who beat the Indians 23-2.

Primary Election Night 2026 will be a good night for one of the GOP candidates for governor (unless nobody gets 35%, in which case there’ll be a top-two runoff eight weeks later). Like the election in 2002, it’s not assured that the nomination will go to the candidate who insists on making the most noise.