Unlike most primaries, runoff won’t be a choice between like-minded candidates

No matter your political affiliation, it has to be acknowledged that Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden has accomplished something incredible. Without ever having held elected office or ever having run a political campaign, he bested an incumbent governor and benched a congressman.

The as-yet unofficial results of the Republican primary have Doeden winning with 31% of the vote followed by Gov. Larry Rhoden with 25%, U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson with 23% and state Speaker of the House Jon Hansen with 21%. Since none of the candidates got 35% of the vote, Doeden and Rhoden (sounds like a vaudeville team) will meet in a runoff election on July 28.

Doeden went to great lengths to cast himself in the image of President Donald Trump — a self-made millionaire who cares about the little guy. He nurtured an image of himself as an outsider who won’t be afraid to shake things up in state government. During the campaign, Doeden was known to say early and often that the voters’ choice was between him and career politicians.

Votes that cost Johnson in the primary will stand up well to the scrutiny of history

Well, he beat the politicians to finish first in the primary. But the fact of the election results is that Republicans who turned out for the primary overwhelmingly chose the politicians. Added together, Rhoden, Johnson and Hansen accumulated 69% of the vote.

That’s 69% of Republican voters choosing to get behind politicians with track records known for making our government systems work. That’s 69% of voters who didn’t choose the candidate who’s promising to blow up the system.

Where Johnson and Hansen (sounds like another vaudeville team) choose to direct their supporters could be a key to the outcome of the runoff election. Some voters may have already taken offense at Doeden’s assertion that the reason he got into politics was to retire Dusty Johnson.

In most political primaries, voters are forced to choose between like-minded candidates. That won’t be the case in the runoff election for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. Doeden, without a legislative track record, is running on ideas. Depending on which speech he’s giving, Doeden wants to either eliminate or phase out property taxes. His plan for doing that is as vague as it is opaque. Even without any details, Doeden’s notion for getting rid of property taxes is catnip to those voters who have seen their tax bills skyrocket.

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In contrast, Rhoden can point to years of public service in the Legislature, as Kristi Noem’s lieutenant governor and his short tenure as governor. As governor he managed to overcome dissension and lay the groundwork for a new prison, and he formulated a plan for lowering property taxes. Granted, his plan has some detractors since using sales taxes to lower property taxes means that people who don’t pay property taxes will get to pay more at the cash register. Still, it was Rhoden who made progress on property tax relief where others failed.

Now both candidates prepare their messages for an eight-week campaign. If you listen closely you can hear printing presses revving up to produce new mailers. Cameras are rolling somewhere, churning out new political commercials. After a protracted primary campaign — Hansen announced his intention to run in April of 2025 and Doeden followed the next month — get ready for an intense two months.

In those two months, both candidates will have the opportunity to make their case to Republican voters. Those voters will have a clear choice. One candidate wants to blow up the system. The other is known for his accomplishments within that system.

It turns out that Doeden was right after all. The choice voters have to make on July 28 is between an outsider and an established politician.