Place your bets! Indiana electoral races garner thousands in wagers on online prediction market

Bettors are collectively wagering tens of thousands of dollars online on the outcomes of Indiana electoral races — including the now-four-way contest for the Republican secretary of state nomination.

That race on prediction market Kalshi has garnered nearly $80,000 in trade volume. Max Engling, a staffer for U.S. Sen. Jim Banks who entered the race May 20, jumped to the top of Kalshi’s chances to win the nomination a day later. That was the same day Engling received a flurry of endorsements from top state Republican elected officials.

Engling’s chances sat at 76% as of Tuesday afternoon, followed by Knox County Clerk David Shelton at 11%, incumbent Diego Morales at 8% and conservative activist Jamie Reitenour at 0.5%. Kalshi says those figures are based on how much “yes” trades — those predicting a certain candidate will be the nominee — recently went for.

On Saturday, Rep. Andrew Ireland, R-Indianapolis, shared the Republican secretary of state Kalshi market on X. At that time, Engling’s chances were at 89%.

“(Also stop betting on elections, that’s really stupid),” he wrote. Ireland is Engling’s campaign chairman.

Indiana Democratic Party Chair Karen Tallian described prediction markets on elections as “demeaning to democracy.”

“It’s cheapening, it’s degrading to one of the most important civic acts that we have in this country,” she said.

A statement from the Indiana Republican Party said “elections are determined by voters, and in the case of State Convention, delegates who vote based on the candidates and their policies.

“While it is troubling that betting — euphemistically labeled as a “prediction market”— now involves bystanders wagering on the outcomes of our democratic processes, we know that the individuals who choose to serve as Republican delegates do so because they care about the process, not because some unregulated platform tries to handicap an outcome.”

The secretary of state’s race isn’t the only state contest that has attracted bets. Primaries for U.S. House race nominees brought in thousands in trade volume. Kalshi users can bet on both the winning party and margin of victory for November’s U.S. House races, as well as the winning party for the secretary of state election. 

Other markets include the winning party for the 2028 Indiana gubernatorial race and states that’ll redistrict before the midterm election (Indiana’s forecast, per Kalshi, sits at 5%). Congressional redistricting is also available to bet on with Polymarket, another prediction market.

Kalshi, founded in 2018, features bets on sports, elections, political actions, the climate and culture, among other subjects. Indiana Gaming Commission officials said it falls under federal-regulatory jurisdiction and they have no oversight authority.

Specifically, it is considered a designated contract market by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Under this designation, Kalshi “may list for trading futures or option contracts based on any underlying commodity, index or instrument,” according to the CFTC.

While states have been free to permit sports betting since a 2018 U.S. Supreme Court ruling, Kalshi and similar prediction markets are under federal purview, authorities have said. The CFTC filed a lawsuit May 19 intending to block a Minnesota state law which would prohibit prediction markets. It’s one of six states the CFTC has sued claiming exclusive regulatory jurisdiction. 

At least 15 states have tackled prediction markets in this year’s legislative sessions, though Indiana is not one of them.