Montana Senate race takes shape as Bankhead emerges from Democratic primary

HELENA — With music bumping in a backroom at the Rialto Bar, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Alani Bankhead was pacing, in a little bit of a shock following her Tuesday night victory in the party’s primary.

Bankhead, seemingly out of nowhere, won by almost 12,000 votes over Reilly Neill, who had been campaigning for the Senate since 2024. At one point, after the race was called and as Bankhead and her staff were working to prepare a statement, she even exclaimed, “I’m new at this!”

But Bankhead has gathered some support from a Democratic party that currently doesn’t hold any state or federal offices in Montana. 

“Upsets happen and voters do not hand out nominations based on who has been in the race the longest or who thinks it’s their turn,” said Emily Marburger, the Montana Democrat’s executive director, in a statement. “They support candidates who connect, who listen, and who offer a message that meets people where they are. Alani did that.”

Marburger went on to say Montana Democrats were “proud to support” Bankhead, called her a coalition builder and added she “proved campaigns are won through connection and vision, not assumptions or entitlement.”

She’ll run against Republican Kurt Alme, who was declared the winner of his primary minutes after polls closed, and independent Seth Bodnar.

Nearly 111,000 Montanans voted in the Democratic primary election, while more than 168,000 voted in the Republican primary, including 128,064 for Alme.

Bodnar has raised the most money in the race, with his campaign reporting more than $2 million since March. 

But plenty of progressive money has gone Bankhead’s way as well.

The Democratic contest tightened in the final months leading up to the June 2 primary, driven in large part by the Progressive Vet PAC spending more than $2.5 million in support of Bankhead. That included mailers, online ads and text messages. 

The PAC’s treasurer is former Democratic state legislator Moffie Funk, who’s been an ally of Democrat and former Montana U.S. Sen. Jon Tester.

Outside spending dwarfed all Democratic fundraising combined; Bankhead, on her own, raised less than $50,000.

Some political observers were surprised with Bankhead’s win, especially the wire-to-wire nature of Bankhead’s victory. 

Longtime Montana political reporter Mike Dennison pointed to the field of relatively unknown candidates in the primary, the size of the field and spending as potential reasons for Bankhead’s win.

“A huge infusion of money (into the election) like we had can certainly swing things, and I think that’s essentially what happened,” Dennison said. “That incredible outside spending on Bankhead’s behalf I think is what made the difference.”

Neill has been a known commodity in Montana political circles for years, and she served as a one-term legislator over a decade ago. She’s also been a prominent commentator on social media, specifically X (previously known as Twitter) for years.

Neill’s campaign also never seemed to gather steam, Dennison said.

“I’ve always felt that her campaign hadn’t really been effective,” he said. “Whatever she was or wasn’t doing, it wasn’t really elevating her name recognition.”

Neill has not responded to text messages, phone calls or emailed requests for comment since the election ended. She did, however, tell ABC/Fox that Alme would have been her second choice after her own campaign.

Neill’s campaign decried the spending of outside money in the election, and almost $700,000 spent by a PAC aligned with U.S. Sens. Steve Daines and Tim Sheehy to oppose Neill, in press releases in the days leading up to June 2. 

“This campaign belongs to working people, not PACs, algorithms, or billionaire strategy sessions in New York and Washington,” Neill said in a May 26 press release.

Bankhead also decried the spending by More Jobs Less Government.

“While the Progressive Vets PAC actually reflects the real values of the campaign, we believe that Montanans deserve to get the campaign messages directly from the candidate, not from corporate PACS that often have more manipulative motivations,” Jeri Bucy a Bankhead spokesperson, told the Daily Montanan.

Both Bankhead and Neill focused on reaching out to rural communities throughout the state.

Neill won a majority of votes in 11 counties east of Great Falls, but only picked up 1,014 votes in those places. Alme picked up thousands of votes throughout those same counties, with many people choosing to return Republican primary ballots, not Democratic.

Bankhead, meanwhile, did well in Yellowstone, Flathead, Gallatin, and Silver Bow Counties, as well as Lewis and Clark County, where she resides. Bankhead also won 53.1% of the vote in Deer Lodge County, her highest share of any vote in any county. Park County, where Neill resides, also went to Bankhead by more than 10 points.

Bankhead has not picked up any major endorsements, though Bodnar has.

The former University of Montana president is endorsed by Tester, the last Democrat to hold federal office, and has drawn support from groups that typically back Democrats, such as a recent one by Montana Conservation Voters.. 

Independent candidates for office have gained traction in other deep-red states, such as Nebraska, where an independent Senate candidate drew 46.5% percent in 2024, and is running again this year, without a Democrat on the ballot. 

There has been some speculation that Bankhead will drop out in support of Bodnar, rumors which she emphatically has shot down on social media.

A day after the primary, on June 3, Bankhead wrote, “No one approached myself or anyone on staff to bend the knee to anyone” and that while “it can be difficult to decipher” what’s real in politics, she’s committed to staying in the race.

Candidates have until August 10 to drop out of the race, at which point the affected party would appoint another candidate. In order for Democrats in the state to not have a Democratic candidate’s name on the ballot, the party would have to change its bylaws, meaning even if Bankhead were to throw her support to Bodnar — or vice versa — it is likely both candidates would still draw some votes.