How to chart a cleaner energy future for Minnesota? Electrification.

Minnesota is on the cusp of a clean energy revolution. We have made considerable progress in shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy in our electric sector. Now, we face a choice in our homes and buildings.

Currently, about two-thirds of Minnesota homes are heated by natural gas, and gas usage continues to rise, threatening our climate and health. Minnesota must find a swift and equitable path forward to meet our climate goals, increase energy reliability and affordability, and improve health. By law, Minnesota established a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 and reach net-zero emissions by 2050 economy-wide. There is no time to waste — the 2023 International Panel on Climate Change warned that urgent action is needed to address the “rapidly escalating hazards” of climate change.

The good news is that Minnesota can achieve these goals. We have the technologies to make this switch for our climate and health, and our policymakers and regulators have put Minnesota on the path to success.

To help guide this work, Clean Heat Minnesota is building a multi-racial and statewide coalition committed to fully decarbonizing building gas use quickly and equitably. The coalition recently released a rigorous analysis that details how we can make the transition off gas. The Minnesota Building Decarbonization Analysis, created in partnership with Synapse Energy Economics, outlines solutions for Minnesota to decarbonize its buildings in feasible, cost-effective, and equitable ways.

The analysis makes one thing clear: A cleaner, healthier and affordable energy future is in reach if we commit now to electrifying our homes and businesses. Fully electrifying residential and commercial buildings is the most timely and effective way to reduce energy costs and bring down emissions.

In the study, the analysts considered two pathways for decarbonizing our buildings: full electrification or a hybrid approach that maximizes renewable natural gas — RNG — alongside electrification. According to the study, a full electrification plan will cost Minnesotans substantially less, saving billions. Switching to heat pumps, another critical component of the plan, will also save consumers considerable energy costs and make indoor air healthier. Full electrification will improve air quality and reduce health care costs by tens of millions of dollars.

Meanwhile, the analysts found that pursuing a strategy that incorporates RNG will likely mean higher costs and reliance on greenhouse gas offsets to reach the goal of net-zero emissions. In addition, maximizing RNG will spike emissions higher — while only displacing about 16% of gas demand.

The bottom line is that gas usage needs to decrease dramatically to meet our climate goals. While Minnesota has made substantial progress, including expanded federal and state incentives for heat pumps and updated energy codes for new residential and commercial buildings, there is much more to do.

Whether Minnesota pursues a full or partial electrification path, to reach our climate goals, we must deploy heat pumps at a large scale. Adoption rates for heat pumps in Minnesota must reach t 100,000 per year by 2030 — and this can be done mainly by replacing gas furnaces at the end of their lives.

Planning for a smooth transition will benefit everyone, including gas utilities. Under either path, there must be significant, coordinated planning for gas and electric systems. Efforts should assist low- and moderate-income households who may have difficulty affording updates to their heating systems. Utility regulators may also need to make adjustments to allow gas utilities to recover the investments needed to keep the gas system safe and operating through the transition. Finally, we need to plan for a transition in a smart way that clusters electrification on a neighborhood scale to keep costs affordable.

We have the technologies to make the switch for climate and health — now we need to continue building a plan to decarbonize Minnesota’s buildings that leaves no one behind.

This is a big task, and the stakes are enormous for our climate, health, and jobs. Our analysis shows that Minnesota is ready to meet this moment.

And as we work toward that vision, we encourage everyone to collaborate to ensure that our transition from gas to safe, affordable, clean energy benefits all of us — regardless of our age, race or ZIP code. Clean Heat Minnesota is working to bring partners together to create a people-first transition.

Read the full analysis and join the conversation at cleanheatmn.org.