Edwards’ abrupt withdrawal leaves western NC Republicans scrambling

As the dust settles on U.S. Rep. Chuck Edwards’ 3:35 a.m. withdrawal from his reelection campaign, western N.C. Republicans and observers are gaming out the best option to replace him on the November ballot.

The replacement will be chosen by the NCGOP’s 11th Congressional District Executive Committee. It’s expected to meet next week to make its choice, according to NCGOP Chairman Jason Simmons.

The typical choice in a situation like this would be a sitting state lawmaker in or near the 11th Congressional District. Several powerful lawmakers come to mind, says Western Carolina political scientist Chris Cooper, including longtime Sens. Ralph Hise, R-Mitchell, Kevin Corbin, R-Macon, and Tim Moffitt, R-Henderson, who previously represented the area in the state House. Other potential choices could include Rep. Jake Johnson, R-Polk, Rep. Karl Gillespie, R-Macon, and Rep. Jennifer Balkcom, R-Henderson.

The question, Cooper says, is which one wants to trade a safe legislative seat to take on a strong, well-funded Democratic opponent in a district that’s trending blue in what’s already likely to be a tough year for Republicans.

Two North Carolina US House races are now toss-ups, top forecaster says

“This is not the same district it was last cycle or the cycle before,” Cooper said. “It’s far from a guarantee that a Republican is going to win this seat. They’ve got to uproot their life. They’ve got to not just campaign, but they’ve got to fundraise when they’re already behind the eight ball.”

Cooper said the committee could also choose one of the two primary opponents Edwards defeated in 2022 and 2024.

“It’s very possible that the folks in power positions in the Senate don’t want to lose that power, and the party’s left with somebody with not a lot else to do,” Cooper said.

But Catawba College political scientist Michael Bitzer doesn’t think western N.C. Republicans will have any shortage of hopefuls drawn by the allure of Washington power.

“If anybody’s got a friend or an ally or an acquaintance on that committee, they’re probably going to be vying for it,” Bitzer said. “It’s probably easier to put the list together of who may not be considering it than considering it.”

‘It’s a very short runway’

NC Newsline reached out Wednesday morning to Hise, Moffitt, Corbin and Johnson to ask whether they’re interested in running to replace Edwards.

Corbin was the first to respond. He said he had “a ton of phone calls” from people urging him to run for the spot.

“I appreciate the people’s thoughts. I’m considering it,” Corbin said. “I’m still trying to process it like everyone else.”

“If I throw my name in the ring, I would run to win, so I have to decide: Do I want to go to Washington? And so that would affect my family and my time at home and all that. So I need to talk with my family about that,” Corbin said.

He said he also feels responsible to his district, and he isn’t eager to give up the seniority he has in the N.C. Senate.

Whoever is selected, Corbin noted, will have to start from scratch on fundraising as well as campaigning.

“It’s a very short runway to consider,” Corbin said, “and that’s all part of the decision.”

None of the other potential candidates NC Newsline contacted responded by publication time.

What to watch for

If Republicans can secure a strong replacement candidate, Bitzer says, they can probably keep the race at status quo. But Democrats will benefit if the new campaign isn’t operational by Labor Day.

“You’ve got to go from zero to a congressional campaign in a very quick time period,” Bitzer said.

Cooper’s watching who’s chosen to run the new campaign.

“It’s not just who gets the nod, but who their consultant is,” Cooper said “Paul Shumaker is running Edwards’ campaign. He’s obviously the most seasoned Republican consultant in North Carolina. If the next candidate gets a Paul Shumaker, then they’re going to be able to hit the ground running quicker, right?”

Bitzer’s waiting to see whether RNC money will come in to help the new candidate. While the GOP has a strong fundraising advantage nationally, it also has a lot of seats it needs to defend this cycle.

“I think the money flow will be the big signal,” Bitzer said. “I think that that’s an early indication of is this a viable, hard-fought campaign, or do they see resources needing to go to defend other seats?”