Bacon declares victory in Nebraska’s 2nd District over Vargas

OMAHA — U.S. Rep. Don Bacon has survived another close race in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, declaring victory Wednesday morning after pulling away from State Sen. Tony Vargas overnight to secure a fifth term.

Vote tallies will keep climbing. On Friday, the Douglas County Election Commission will count the early votes received on Election Day, resolution ballots and provisional ballots that need to be verified. That combined number is expected to reach about 15,000.

At last count Wednesday, Bacon led Vargas 51%-49%, slightly closer than their first contest in 2022. In raw votes, Bacon led by more than 8,300 votes as of 8:45 a.m.

All three county election commissioners in the 2nd Congressional District — in Douglas, Saunders and parts of Sarpy Counties — have at least some votes yet to count, but none has more than Douglas County, home to Omaha and the largest share of the district’s Democrats. 

Political observers said the votes remaining will likely mirror the trends of early voting overall in the precincts where they are being turned in. Early voting favored Vargas, but the remaining votes are highly unlikely to narrow the gap enough to alter the result.

Bacon celebrates with GOP leaders

Bacon celebrated the win on Wednesday morning at his west Omaha campaign headquarters, with more than 75 people attending, including Gov. Jim Pillen, the other four members of Nebraska’s congressional delegation and Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert.

“This district’s a 50-50,” Bacon said, of the swing district. “It’s a full contact sport to deliver here. … My commitment to all the voters here, whether they voted for me or against me, my job is to serve the entire district.”

Bacon, a retired Air Force brigadier general, has credited his record of working with both parties on targeted investments in national security, roads, bridges and airports for his popularity.

He spent the campaign’s final days stressing that with a world at war, Congress needed someone with his national security bona fides. He hosted a forum recently featuring several generals he has worked with, for example.

Bacon has said his work in Congress helped the House pass legislation funding repairs to Offutt Air Force Base and Camp Ashland, as well as helping to strengthen the levee systems that protect the base from flooding.

New goals

On Wednesday, he said his goals for the next term were to work with his colleagues to secure federal funding for a new VA hospital for the Omaha area, along with help from private donors; improve cybersecurity nationally for government and business targets; improve how quickly the Pentagon can deploy civilian technology; and improve nuclear command and control structures within the military.

Bacon’s ability to draw support from organized labor and avoid identity politics helped him, political consultants said, as did some effective outside ads that attacked Vargas for asking voters to increase state senators’ pay. 

Bacon also spent more of his 2024 rematch with Vargas attacking the South Omaha senator’s record than he did in 2022. Bacon hammered at Vargas’ having missed legislative votes, often for Appropriations Committee work.

Bacon and supporters criticized Vargas for supporting criminal justice reforms to address prison crowding, including juvenile justice reforms that the unions blamed for upticks in youth violence.

Vargas defended those efforts as necessary and humane for young people, many of whom, he said, were facing solitary confinement and warehousing that was making them more likely to reoffend.

Bacon highlighted his own record of supporting law enforcement and said the support he received from law enforcement unions was crucial in helping him push past Vargas’ attempt to paint himself as pro-public safety.

The Vargas campaign spent much of the race arguing that Bacon was willing to say and do whatever it took to be re-elected, including inflaming tensions over immigration and crime.

Vargas argued Bacon was not as bipartisan as he and some of his ads made him out to be. Bacon pointed to independent ratings showing him as being among House Republicans most likely to work with a Democrat.

Abortion was a factor again

Vargas and his supporters spent much of the campaign focused on abortion rights and reproductive health, arguing that Bacon is more socially conservative on the issue than he portrays.

Bacon, like many House Republicans, has tried to soften his stance on abortion since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022 and since Nebraska passed a stricter ban in 2023.

Current Nebraska law bans abortion after 12 weeks gestational age, with exceptions after that for the life of the mother and for rape and incest. 

Vargas and his campaign reminded voters that Bacon co-sponsored federal legislation that would have banned abortion nationally by granting legal personhood to a fetus. 

The measure Bacon supported contained no exceptions, though Bacon argued that he had been told it would have allowed for protecting a mother’s health, an exception he has long advocated.

Some Democrats privately criticized Vargas for being too careful. A few argued that he tried too hard not to offend any of the party’s major constituencies and excited too few of them. 

Nebraska Democrats had described 2024 as the party’s best chance at winning the seat since then-State Sen. Brad Ashford, D-Neb., a former Republican, upset U.S. Rep. Lee Terry, R-Neb., in 2014.

Bacon and his campaign made a big deal out of an endorsement this fall from Ann Ashford, a former Democratic congressional candidate and Brad Ashford’s widow. 

Vargas has not yet conceded

Vargas had not formally conceded as of 11 a.m. Wednesday. In a statement issued earlier in the day, he asked his supporters to be patient. He said the past few years have taught Americans that counting votes takes time — and that accurate results are worth it. 

He said his goal with his campaign was to give voice to working families and unite the community. He said part of that is giving space to finish the count.

“I am humbled to have earned so much trust and support from the voters in this district,” Vargas said. “Many more votes are still being processed and need to be counted.… I am eagerly awaiting the results.”

Bacon won his 2024 rematch with Vargas despite a more difficult competitive environment for swing-district Republicans who haven’t always supported former President Donald Trump.

Trump’s campaign and his supporters spent millions less on ads and staff in the Omaha area in the current campaign than they did in 2016, when Trump won the district, or in 2020, when he lost the district.

Trump won Nebraska statewide in 2020 but lost in the 2nd, which is partly why his campaign tried to sway Nebraska lawmakers this year to change the way the state awards its Electoral College votes.

Nebraska and Maine award a single electoral vote to the winner of the presidential popular vote in each congressional district and two more to the winner statewide. 

The other 48 states award all their electoral votes to the statewide winner, a process known as “winner-take-all.”

Race caught in Harris-Trump tide

The Nebraska Republican Party has long sought to convert the state to winner-take-all. Bacon and the rest of the state’s congressional delegation — all Republicans — signed a letter supporting the change. Bacon, however, later said he wished the rest of the country would adopt Nebraska’s approach so the presidential campaigns would visit more of the country.

Bacon has complained of swimming against the tide of Vice President Kamala Harris and her backers, who were outspending Trump in the 2nd District roughly 20 to 1. 

The 2nd District race is costlier, in part, because of the potential for the stray electoral vote, or “blue dot.” It’s one of a dozen or so swing districts nationally that either party can win, though Republicans hold a slight advantage in voter registrations.

As of mid-October, the two candidates had already raised a total of nearly $13 million and spent more than $11 million, with Vargas having a slight edge, according to federal campaign finance filings. 

Outside groups have spent more than $20 million, combined, on the race. Bacon had more outside help last time than Vargas. This time, the tallies are closer, though they tilt toward Bacon.

Local political observers have said the win puts Bacon in position to climb in congressional leadership. In April, he was named chair of the Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation Subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee.

Matthew Zacher, Bacon’s campaign manager, joked on Wednesday that  the 2nd District should be called “the Bacon dot” instead of the “blue dot.” Zacher raised eyebrows Wednesday at the congressman’s campaign headquarters by saying he looked forward to Bacon running again in 2026. 

Bacon, asked about the comment after his victory speech, said he wanted some time before worrying about the next election cycle.

“I’ll let people know,” he said. “I’ve got to pray on it. I thought I’d just take the victory lap today.”