Running on empty: Tennessee Democrats pinning high hopes on uninspired campaigns 

October means rounding the clubhouse turn on eagerly anticipated midterm elections. Sadly, even in a big-change-brewing year, the “eagerly” part of that sentence gets little traction in Tennessee, where the dense red fog of GOP political domination seemingly never lifts, keeping the election night suspense meter pinned near zero.

But perhaps this year is different, given accumulating political chatter about a blue wave washing ashore in otherwise unreachable red states. In this kind of political climate might some Tennessee surprises be in the offing? 

Tennessee Republicans went nuclear back in May redrawing themselves into majorities in every congressional district in the state, but that hasn’t stopped Democrats from fielding plausible contenders waging kinetic bids for several seats. 

Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder in the 5th District and state Rep. Justin Pearson in the 9th District have both raised the money and the public profile needed to wage credible campaigns in open-seat races. And both have found their way into national visibility, snagging coveted spots on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Red-to-Blue list, which targets potentially flippable GOP-leaning seats for strategic guidance, staff resources and fundraising help. 

Molder and Hatcher discuss positions on renewable energy, nuclear power ahead of November election

Also in the realm of blue congressional plausibility sits Darden Copeland in the 7th District challenging GOP Rep. Matt Van Epps, who has scarcely warmed the seat since taking it in ahotly contested special election last December.

Copeland projects a normie moderate profile that could play in the sort of largely rural and exurban district the legislature drew for Van Epps, and the Copeland campaign recently shared some optimistic internal polling numbers, but unlike Molder and Pearson he hasn’t (yet) managed to draw the DCCC’s affectionate gaze. 

With national midterm momentum seeming to tinge a little bluer with each passing week and each new poll, it’s fun for Volunteer State Democrats to imagine the possibilities. For my part, while it’s encouraging to see blue team congressional hopefuls mounting serious bids, it is disappointing to report that the races they are running feel insipid, almost lifeless. Scanning the choices they are making about crafting and spreading their messages through legacy communication channels as well as social media, it all feels very conventional, very same old same old.

Take Molder, for instance. His social media content is thoughtful and crisply produced. His TV spots scream “I hired political media pros.” But it’s mostly anodyne unreconstructed talking points, offending no one (not a bad thing) but arguably inspiring no one either (not such a good thing). 

Copeland has an incumbent opponent who long ago superglued himself to Donald Trump, and we can see Copeland capitalizing on the socials, but the messaging, while apt on the merits, is flat. 

Pearson offers more varied and engaging social media content,  though the production values are often lacking, and the TV spot of his I’ve seen has a county-sheriff-candidate level of polish. 

Everyone understands that the current political environment, like the rest of our information economy, is built on a foundation of attention: grabbing it, holding it and using it to advantage. Each of these candidates is running a competently organized and well-intended campaign, but it’s hard to fathom how any are breaking through in an attention-getting way. There is little mainstream media coverage of these races because none are making news and there is little to cover. 

To be sure, these candidates and their staffs are working their tails off every day on an exceedingly difficult quest in a challenging political context. But at the risk of further torturing the maritime metaphor, it feels like they’ve set up campaign shops on rafts floating offshore, relying on the forces of nature, which is to say 2026’s building wind and wave, to pick them up and carry them home. 

Granted, none can win without the wave, and it will have to be a genuine biggie to splash all the way into Tennessee. We hear the term “tsunami” thrown around from time to time in political conversations about this year’s Democratic momentum, but metaphorically speaking that overstates. By definition a tsunami is a large wave typically caused by an undersea earthquake.

Dems don’t need the full weight of a thoroughgoing national political earthquake to start turning Tennessee back in a blue direction. But floating competently in the red fog waiting for a big wave, while understandable, feels like not enough.