Iowa researcher warns higher vape tax could drive people back to cigarettes

As states increasingly implement taxes on alternative smoking products, research from a Des Moines University professor showed the policies could lead people to reach for cigarettes instead — impacting more than just themselves.

Des Moines University Assistant Professor of Public Health Jason Semprini found in a study of state taxes on items like vapes and e-cigarettes and secondhand smoke exposure that increasing the tax by $1 on average increases a child’s chances of exposure to secondhand smoke by 16%.

“As vape taxes went up, exposure to cigarette smoke in the house also increased, so, kind of a negative consequence to this well-intentioned policy,” Semprini said. “Unfortunately, we have to consider both intended and unintended consequences.”

Semprini’s report, published in the International Journal of Drug Policy, states that electronic nicotine delivery systems like e-cigarettes and vapes have contributed to declines in smoking cigarettes and “although not without risks or health concerns, contain fewer toxicants than combustible cigarettes.” However, taxes and regulations on the products “appear to inadvertently increase smoking rates.”

Where previous research in this area has shown that policies aimed at vaping reduce the practice while pushing some people back to smoking cigarettes, Semprini said no one before him had focused on nonsmokers who live with people who smoke or vape.

Using data from the National Survey of Children’s Health, Semprini said he compared trends of smoking in the house to instances of vape tax implementation and increases. The correlation he found between tax increases and smoke exposure was only present among households where the adults do not have an education beyond high school.

“It’s children who live in a house of lower-educated adults or parents who are bearing the major burden of this vape tax policy,” Semprini said.

According to U.S. Census data, more than 44% of Iowans hold at least an associate’s degree, and the American Lung Association reports a smoking rate among Iowa adults at 14.7%.

Taxation policies vary between the more than 34 states with taxes on electronic nicotine delivery systems, according to an article from the Tax Foundation showing taxes by state as of January 2026. Semprini said states can have multiple reasons for taxing these products, from wanting to curb use among young people to seeking a new revenue stream from sales.

In Iowa, Gov. Kim Reynolds signed a law in May imposing a 5-cent tax on vapes and other alternative nicotine products, with revenue going to the state’s healthcare trust fund and to pediatric cancer research.

Semprini said the 5% tax is “really unlikely to change behavior,” but if the Iowa Legislature and state governor ever decide to increase that tax, he would expect to see a similar response in the state that he’s seen nationally through his research.

“It kind of adds to the regressiveness of these types of taxes,” Semprini said. “Lower-income people have to pay more out of their own pockets relative to their income if they don’t change their behavior, and then it’s those people who are of lower socioeconomic status, lower education, their children who are bearing the negative effects of secondhand smoke exposure, which is a major predictor of future cigarette smoking.”

The researcher’s next focus in this area is on older adults and reducing smoking among the population, Semprini said.

Lung cancer will cause the highest number of cancer deaths in Iowa this year out of all cancer-caused deaths, according to the 2026 Cancer in Iowa report. Semprini said that in Iowa, where radon measurements are higher, those who smoke or are exposed to secondhand smoke see their risk of developing lung cancer go up 20 times compared to those who don’t smoke.

“It’s really important knowing our cancer rates, knowing that lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality in Iowa, to not inadvertently cause people to go back to smoking cigarettes,” Semprini said. “We should be doing the opposite, and we should be doing that through the lens that it’s not just people who smoke, but also people who are exposed to smoking.”