CD2 race is more intriguing than it usually is. How much more competitive remains to be seen.

The combination of a Republican candidate easily characterized as a carpetbagger and growing frustrations with President Trump may provide the perfect recipe for Democrats to do what previously has been thought impossible: flipping Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District blue.

Prominent political analyses, including The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, continue to categorize CD2 as “solid Republican” and expect retired Lt. Col. David Flippo to easily defeat former state legislator Teresa Benitez-Thompson. But at least one, Inside Elections, reclassified the district from “solid Republican” to “lean Republican” — a step in a favorable direction for Democrats, though still a steep uphill climb.

Republicans hold a slim majority in the U.S. House and most analyses require them to retain retiring U.S Rep. Mark Amodei’s seat in order to retain control. A Democrat has never represented the district, which contains Washoe County and most of rural Nevada.

But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently named CD2 a “district in play,” and the state party last week released polling suggesting the race is within the margin of error.

Political analyst Nate Silver lists CD2 as more competitive than Nevada’s other three districts, which are all Democratically held. The Cook and Sabato rankings consider the three Democratic districts more competitive, with U.S. Rep. Susie Lee being most at risk.

Cautiously optimistic signs for Benitez-Thompson began with initial fundraising suggesting she has more momentum and grassroots support than Flippo, who had been actively campaigning for a different congressional district before switching races following Amodei’s surprise retirement announcement.

Amodei backed former state Sen. James Settelmeyer during the primary, and has publicly said he will not endorse Flippo in the general election.

That prominent non-endorsement has been accompanied by sometimes lackluster endorsements from prominent Republicans who previously supported Flippo’s primary challenger.

Nevada Senate Minority Leader Robin Titus went on Nevada Newsmakers last month and explained her endorsement of Flippo, saying the congressional race “is bigger than any one person.”

Titus emphasized that she respected Amodei and understood his decision but said she and others have come to a different position: “I think many of us have seen that, listen, he’s our guy now and we’re going to endorse him.”

She noted that Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, who endorsed Settelmeyer in the primary, has since endorsed Flippo.

“We certainly cannot have a Democrat pick up that seat,” Titus added.

Titus said she was “shocked” Flippo won by more than 12 percentage points. She, like most, believes Trump’s endorsement “was what tipped him over and helped him win.”

Amid an ongoing unpopular war and high prices, Trump’s approval rating has declined since the state’s primary. Democrats across the country are hoping that translates to big wins in swing districts.

Flippo has unapologetically aligned himself with Trump. His campaign website leads with a huge banner reading “Endorsed by President Trump & Governor Lombardo.” And Flippo has gone on Fox News to express support for the president’s strategy in Iran.

Trump won CD2 by 14 points, though he won the entire state by just 3 points.

Benitez-Thompson has previously described her race as “a bellwether for change nationwide to move away from MAGA’s DC policies back to local needs.”

When asked by the Nevada Current if the Flippo campaign has conducted any polling of their own, spokesperson Rory McShane pointed to Nate Silver and the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, which as of Labor Day put Flippo’s chances of winning 79% and 75%, respectively.

McShane calls Benitez-Thompson “a socialist who only wants tax breaks for data centers.”

Benitez-Thompson was serving in the Nevada State Assembly in 2015 when a large bipartisan margin established tax abatements for data centers. She has previously accepted tens of thousands in campaign contributions from data centers and related entities, according to the Nevada Globe.

Flippo has been criticized for not releasing required financial disclosure forms, a particularly egregious omission because Flippo has self-funded much of his campaign — $1.6 million. It’s unclear how he amassed any wealth.