The results are in, and the Maryland Matters election contest has a winner

Since the state Board of Elections made it official Monday, there’s no reason Maryland Matters can’t do the same: We have a winner for our primary election prognostication contest.

It probably shouldn’t be surprising that Spencer Jones won the contest, as he’s been on both sides of the politics scene: As observer, as owner of political hangout Chick & Ruth’s Delly in downtown Annapolis, and as participant, as the current Democratic nominee for the 7th District seat on the Anne Arundel County Council.

Jones almost ran the table, answering 18 of 20 questions correctly and beating out a number of lawmakers, lobbyists, political junkies and regular readers in the process. The next-closest finishers got 15 and 14 correct, with Jones’ margin of victory eliminating the need for us to turn to the tiebreakers.

Like most readers, Jones did not predict longtime candidate Robin Ficker’s victory in the the three-way GOP primary in the 6th District U.S. House race. Nor did he see Amar Mukunda’s defeat of longtime state Sen. Nancy King, the Senate majority leader, in the 39th District Democratic primary in Montgomery County.  But he was hardly alone: Only six contestants saw Ficker winning, and just two predicted King’s upset loss.

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Nobody thought Democrat Eric Felber would cross the Fustero Line — the stunning 20% that grocery clerk Robert Fustero won against then-Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in the 2002 Democrat primary for governor — in his bid to unseat Gov. Wes Moore this year. Felber got 11.8% of the primary vote.

All but one entrant had Vanessa Atterbeary as the winner of the Democratic primary for Howard County executive and all but one entrant had Del. Malcolm Ruff unseating Sen. Dalya Attar in the Democratic primary for the District 41 state Senate seat. All but a handful put their money on Rep. April McClain Delaney over David Trone in the costly Democratic primary for the 6th District U.S. House seat.

Jones’ victory entitles him to lunch with the Maryland Matters staffer of his choice, or a States Newsroom tote bag with swag. Or likely both, since we’re feeling generous.

For those keeping score at home, the questions and answers, as of 7:30 p.m. Monday, are below.

1) Who will win the Republican primary for governor ? Dan Cox

2) In 2002, Robert Fustero, a grocery store clerk, stunned the political world by taking 20% of the vote against then-Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in the Democratic primary for governor. This year, another political unknown, physician Eric Felber, is challenging Gov. Wes Moore (D) in the Democratic primary for governor. Yes or no – will Felber cross the Fustero Line in this year’s primary? No. (Felber got 11.8%.)

3) Who will win the Democratic primary in the 6th congressional district? Incumbent Rep. April McClain Delaney

4) Who will win the Republican primary there? Robin Ficker

5) Who will win the Democratic primary in the 5th congressional district? Adrian Boafo

6) Who will finish sixth in that 24-person primary? Arthur Ellis

7) Who will win the Democratic primary for Anne Arundel County executive? Allison Pickard

8) Who will win the Democratic primary for Baltimore County executive? Julian Jones

9) Who will win the Republican primary for Harford County executive? Bob Cassilly

10) Who will win the Democratic primary for Howard County executive? Vanessa Atterbeary

11) Who will win the Democratic primary for Montgomery County executive? Will Jawando

12) Three incumbent state’s attorneys face tough primaries this month: Scott Shellenberger (D) in Baltimore County, Anne Colt Leitess (D) in Anne Arundel County and Tara Jackson (D) in Prince George’s County. Name which ones, if any, will lose their primaries. Scott Shellenberger

13) Two men named Kevin Ford are running in state Senate primaries: A Democrat named Kevin Ford in Prince George’s County’s District 24, and a Republican named Kevin Ford in the 42nd District, which takes in parts of Baltimore and Carroll counties. Will either of these Kevins win their primaries, and if so, which? Yes, District 42 Republican Kevin Ford

14) Who will win the 41st District Democratic Senate primary in Baltimore City between Sen. Dalya Attar and Del. Malcolm Ruff? Del. Malcolm Ruff

15) Who will win the Republican primary for House of Delegates in District 1A in Garrett County? Dan Duggan

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16) Sen. Nancy King (D-Montgomery) and two of the three delegates in District 39 are trying to knock off two-term Del. Gabriel Acevero (D) in their district, by supporting a challenger, Gaithersburg City Councilmember Robert Wu. Will they succeed? No. (In the race for three delegate seats, Acevero finished second and Wu finished fourth.)

17) Will Sen. King survive her own primary challenge? No

18) Will any other state senators lose in the primary? If so, which ones? Only Attar and King.

19) Who will win the three-way Democratic primary for president of the Charles County Commission? Amanda Stewart

20) Who will win the Republican primary for Frederick County executive, Diane Fouche or William Holtzinger? William Holtzinger

Tie-breakers:

1) Who will win the Democratic state Senate primary in the 36th District for the right to take on Senate Minority Leader Steve Hershey (R) this fall, Nivek Johnson or John Queen? Nivek Johnson

2) What percentage of the vote will Baltimore City Councilmember Mark Conway (D) win in his bid to topple U.S. Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D)? Come within 2 points of predicting it correctly and you’ll win a point. 24.46% (Anything between 22.46% and 26.46% would be worth a point.)

3) What percentage of the vote will tour boat captain Bobby LaPin (D) win in his bid to oust Senate President Bill Ferguson (D) in Baltimore City? Come within 2 points of predicting it correctly and you’ll win a point. 43.46% (Anything between 41.46% and 45.46% would be worth a point.)