Where backers of losing campaigns are shifting support ahead of South Dakota’s governor runoff

Political newcomer Toby Doeden topped the primary field for South Dakota’s Republican gubernatorial nomination Tuesday, but political insiders say he’s alienated some of his opponents’ supporters by targeting the losing candidates as “career politicians.”

Gov. Larry Rhoden’s campaign, meanwhile, ran an ad late in the campaign calling one of those now-eliminated candidates, U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson, a “Washington politician” who “questions South Dakota’s record.”

To win a majority of votes and their party’s nomination in the July 28 runoff, Rhoden and Doeden must now court the thousands of Republicans who preferred Johnson and House Speaker Jon Hansen. 

While some Hansen supporters told South Dakota Searchlight they’re leaning toward Doeden because he shares some of Hansen’s views, some connected to Johnson’s campaign and some legislative leaders see supporters of both losing candidates leaning toward Rhoden.

Lower turnout, shifting loyalties may drive results in GOP primary runoff for South Dakota governor

The runoff result could hinge in part on turnout. Political analysts expect turnout to fall below the 42% of Republicans who voted Tuesday.

Doeden, Rhoden campaigns talk uniting, mending Republican rifts

Political analyst Drey Samuelson worked for two of South Dakota’s last Democratic federal officeholders. He said it’s hard to imagine the 23% of primary voters who supported Johnson shifting toward Doeden, who announced on election night that “it feels pretty good” to end Johnson’s political career.

The comment shows that Doeden “is more interested in flexing on Dusty than he is in gaining their support for the runoff,” Samuelson said.

Doeden said in a statement that “the disagreements that I have had with my opponents does not overshadow the love that we all have for the state of South Dakota.”

Doeden said he congratulated Johnson and Hansen for their “spirited and hard-fought campaigns” and hopes to “learn from and connect with them” going forward. 

“I have a bold plan and vision for South Dakota, something Larry Rhoden simply does not, and I am ready to get it implemented,” Doeden said in a statement. 

Ian Fury, spokesman for the Rhoden campaign, said Rhoden is the “only candidate” who can unite the divided Republican factions, pointing to Rhoden’s accomplishments and track record as governor.

“If Hansen and Johnson voters want civility-driven conservative results, they should vote for Governor Rhoden,” said Fury, adding that voters who want “bluster” and “empty promises” should vote for Doeden.

Hansen supporters could split

Hansen earned 21% of the vote on Tuesday.

Doeden’s anti-Johnson rhetoric appeals to Hansen supporter Ed Fischbach, who’s now leaning toward Doeden.

“I don’t trust Rhoden when Dusty’s people are getting behind him,” Fischbach said. 

The Spink County farmer is a vocal opponent of carbon capture pipelines, which supporters see as a way to benefit the ethanol industry through carbon sequestration credits and to help meet a growing demand for lower-carbon fuels. 

Fischbach and a coalition of landowners worried about carbon pipelines crossing their land helped remake the Legislature during the 2024 primary cycle. That primary saw the ejection of several lawmakers who’d backed a compromise bill that would have given the proposed Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline a path to construction under more strict conditions.

Hansen, a vocal opponent of the use of carbon pipelines for eminent domain, was selected as Speaker of the House of Representatives with the help of the new lawmakers who were elected in 2024. 

As lawmakers debated eminent domain, Doeden also spoke out against the project. The Summit project no longer includes a path through South Dakota.

Eminent domain refers to the power to take private property for public use, with just compensation to the owner determined by a court. While Rhoden signed a bill banning eminent domain for carbon pipelines, Fischbach said he’s still not sure he will support Rhoden. 

Fischbach thinks the Republican majority swept in on an anti-pipeline wave in 2024 will lose control of the Republican caucus to a group he sees as too friendly to such projects. Fischbach is concerned that Rhoden might support a renewed carbon pipeline for South Dakota in that environment. 

“I’m just worried we’re now going to be ignored by Rhoden,” Fischbach said.

Like Fischbach, some Hansen supporters were motivated by his positions on eminent domain for carbon pipelines and his opposition to government support for data centers, which former Hansen spokesman Austin Goss said is echoed in Doeden’s “anti-establishment” campaign message.

“If that’s their ultimate goal and they continue to chase that, then they’re going to go to Toby,” Goss said.

Goss did not say which remaining candidate Hansen might endorse or support. Hansen himself did not return a request for comment.

House Majority Leader Scott Odenbach served alongside Hansen in the Legislature during the last two years. 

The Spearfish Republican supported Hansen. Now, he said he will likely support Rhoden.

Odenbach feels that Doeden supporters “divided and destroyed conservatives” in the Legislature during the last two sessions as a way to undermine Hansen’s campaign.

“It would be very difficult to form collaborative coalitions with some of the people who aligned themselves with Doeden based on their past behavior,” Odenbach said.

Many of Doeden’s outspoken supporters in the Legislature were ousted on Tuesday night.

“Should Doeden win, he’ll have a hostile Legislature he’s coming in with,” Odenbach said.

Odenbach predicted gridlock under Doeden but more collaboration under Rhoden.

“Early on in Rhoden’s tenure, he was fully aware of the strife and acrimony that’d built up between the Legislature and his predecessor,” Odenbach said, in a reference to former Gov. Kristi Noem. “He made it a priority to have meetings regularly, show goodwill and humility, work together and compromise on things.”

Johnson supporters shift toward Rhoden

Sioux Falls-based MarketBeat CEO and philanthropist Matt Paulson supported Johnson with over $150,000. But the leader of the financial data company now plans to back Rhoden and Lt. Gov. Tony Venhuizen.

“Between Rhoden and the political unknown that Toby Doeden is, I think Larry and Tony are the better choice,” he said.

Nathan Sanderson, president of the South Dakota Retailers Association — representing over 4,000 member businesses, said industry leaders are likely to get behind Rhoden, even if they preferred Johnson. 

“The operations of government have been developed and crafted between the public and private sector over decades, and you’ve got a guy in Toby Doeden who doesn’t even understand how they operate,” Sanderson said. “And if you don’t know how they operate, how can you profess to change them?”

Sanderson said a candidate claiming to know better amounts to an “entire disruption of a system we collectively agree works pretty doggone well.”

Rep. Taylor Rehfeldt, R-Sioux Falls, whose political action committee offered financial backing to several of the Republican legislative candidates who won Tuesday, said she plans to support Rhoden with her vote but will focus her campaigning on legislative races. She preferred Johnson.

“I can’t speak for anybody else, but what I can say is that Dusty supporters believe in practical, commonsense leadership. I can tell you with certainty, they will lean toward Larry Rhoden because he has the ability to govern,” Rehfeldt said. “It may not be in the exact way you’ve hoped or longed to bring to the state like Dusty, but I do believe Rhoden won’t cause harm to our state.”