California House races could decide the majority in Congress. Who survived the primary?

All eyes are on California’s two remaining competitive House races as voters choose which candidates will face off later this fall.

The outcome of the state’s open primary, which narrows each race to the top two vote-getters regardless of party, sets the stage for a fierce contest in November as Democrats across the country push to retake control of Congress. Victories in California are even more important after a series of court rulings gave Republicans the edge in the national redistricting arms race.

Still, Democrats have been bullish about their chances in California after voters last year approved new congressional maps that significantly decreased the number of competitive races in the state. With the House majority, Democrats could block President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda, grill his cabinet officials and launch investigations into his administration.

Only two truly competitive races remain — one in the Central Valley and the other in San Diego — while the other contested seats pit Democrats against one another.

22nd District: San Joaquin Valley

The state’s marquee race is in the Bakersfield-based 22nd District. Two Democrats are fighting for the chance to take on Rep. David Valadao, the vulnerable Republican incumbent whose only election loss came in 2018 during Trump’s first term. The Associated Press said Tuesday that Valadao will advance to November. 

Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, a physician who has spent most of her career in hospitals and clinics that rely on Medi-Cal, has positioned herself as a moderate Democrat willing to buck her party. She has faced stiff competition from Randy Villegas, a college professor and school board trustee running as a progressive Democrat with support from the Working Families Party, the Congressional Progressive Caucus and Sen. Bernie Sanders.

With about half the vote tallied Tuesday night, Villegas was leading Bains by about 1,300 votes.

The Dem-on-Dem battle for that second spot embodies the larger tug-of-war within the party over how Democrats can win back the voters they lost in 2024. They could play to the middle and back Bains, a so-called “Valleycrat” who is backed by national Democrats and a slate of sitting members of Congress. Or, they could take a leap of faith and embrace Villegas’ more progressive brand of economic populism, which notably fueled Zohran Mamdani’s rise to the New York City mayor’s office.

48th District: San Diego

The November lineup is set for California’s other remaining competitive district in San Diego County. Republican Jim Desmond, a San Diego County supervisor backed by the retiring incumbent, Rep. Darrell Issa, will face current San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert, a Democrat. 

The Associated Press called the race late Tuesday with about 55% of the vote tallied. 

Von Wilpert decisively quelled a fierce intraparty challenge from fellow Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, a former labor department aide to President Barack Obama who had lost to Issa twice before.  She called him anti-LGBTQ for questioning whether she could win votes outside gay-friendly Palm Springs; Campa-Najjar accused von Wilpert of racism for questioning his name changes and residence.

Elsewhere in the state, Democrats are waging a battle for the ages with younger candidates looking to oust or succeed aging incumbents.

11th District: Nancy Pelosi’s seat

In the San Francisco race to succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, frontrunner Sen. Scott Wiener will face San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan in November, according to The Associated Press.

Wiener easily advanced early on Tuesday and Chan followed after she built a commanding lead over Saikat Chakrabarti, the billionaire former software engineer who largely self-funded his campaign. 

Chang received a major boost just two weeks ago when Pelosi finally weighed in and endorsed her. Conversely, Chakrabarti never received the nod from his former boss Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose name he often invoked to bolster his progressive bona fides.

7th District: Sacramento

In Sacramento, longtime incumbent Democratic Rep. Doris Matsui faces the first serious challenge in her 20-year congressional career from Mai Vang, a progressive Sacramento city councilmember nearly half her age. Vang is one of several candidates around the state who are running on a platform of generational change.

With nearly half the vote tabulated, Matsui was leading by about 6,000 votes late Tuesday night, according to The Associated Press. Behind her is Vang, closely followed by Republican challenger Zachariah Wooden. Fewer than 1,000 votes separate Vang and Wooden.

6th District: Sacramento suburbs

Incumbent Rep. Ami Bera, a Democrat, switched districts to run for the 3rd District, which was reshaped dramatically by Prop. 50. The incumbent in that seat, Rep. Kevin Kiley, subsequently left the Republican Party and switched districts to run as an independent in the suburban Sacramento 6th District.

With almost 50% of the vote counted, Kiley was leading early Wednesday morning by about 5,000 votes, according to The Associated Press. Close behind are Republican Michael Stansfield and former state Sen. Richard Pan. Fewer than 900 votes separate Stansfield and Pan.

Other candidates in the race include Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho, Planned Parenthood public affairs executive Lauren Babb-Tomlinson and West Sacramento Mayor Martha Guerrero, all Democrats.

4th District: Wine Country

Democratic Rep. Mike Thompson, 75, faces an intraparty challenge from Eric Jones, 36, in his bid for a 15th term. 

Thompson, who advanced to November Tuesday, is leaning on his experience fighting the Trump administration and securing funds for projects in the district. He is a senior member of the Ways and Means Committee, which governs tax policy.

A former venture capitalist, Jones’ platform centers around affordability, including a proposed $10,000 middle-class tax credit and expanding access to zero-down mortgages. 

The two Republican candidates, John MacKenzie and Ray Riehle, were significantly outspent. Yet early returns showed Jones trailing Riehle with about half of the vote counted.

32nd District: Los Angeles

Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman, 71, has represented some of Los Angeles’ most affluent northwest suburbs for close to 30 years. His main Democratic opponent, 42-year-old Jake Levine, argued that Sherman’s long tenure has rendered him out of touch. 

With more than half the votes counted, The Associated Press said Tuesday that Sherman had enough votes to advance to November, along with the sole Republican, Larry Thompson.

Levine ran on a progressive policy platform that includes universal childcare, a new federal renters’ tax credit and tuition-free college. Levine’s campaign said Tuesday that he would wait for more votes to come in before conceding.