Will Trump’s waning popularity pull down California Republicans? Tuesday’s election offers a clue

In the open San Diego-based state Senate race, a Republican-on-Republican purity test is on. And so far, the far-right candidate is leading. 

Late Tuesday, Kristie Bruce-Lane, a two-time unsuccessful candidate for state Assembly and a Make-America-Great-Again firebrand, was leading San Marcos city councilmember Ed Musgrove by 5 percentage points with 60% of the votes counted. If she advances, she will face Democrat Mara Elliott, the former San Diego city attorney, in November.

A similar dynamic is playing out in the Sierras, where Sen. Marie Alvarado-Gil, a moderate Democrat-turned-Republican seeking re-election, could get blocked out by her Republican opponent Alexandra Duarte, wife of former U.S. Rep. John Duarte, who is running on gun rights advocacy, border security and anti-transgender policies.

Bruce-Lane’s lead and Alvarado-Gil’s potential peril spell trouble for the state Republican Party’s more moderate wing, as vulnerable Republicans struggle to distance themselves from the far-right faction within their party to defend their seats against fierce Democratic opposition. Those challengers are banking on President Donald Trump’s waning approval rating and the impact of his policies — chiefly high tariffs, immigration crackdowns and the war in Iran — to hurt Republicans.

Almost all embattled GOP incumbents are expected to cruise to the November election, where the real test of their popularity awaits. 

In some of the competitive races, the field is set: In Riverside County, Democratic Riverside City Councilmember Clarissa Cervantes will take on Assemblymember Leticia Castillo, a Corona Republican, after losing to Castillo two years ago by a razor-thin margin despite amassing a significant war chest. The primary is effectively a practice round before the November showdown: As of late Tuesday, the two were neck to neck.

In the Coachella Valley, three Democrats are vying to unseat GOP Assemblymember Jeff Gonzalez of Coachella, who has adopted a more moderate perspective on immigration than his fellow Republican colleagues. With 49% of the votes counted Tuesday evening, Imperial City Councilmember Ida Obeso-Martinez was leading the Democratic challengers, with Indio City Councilmember Oscar Ortiz trailing closely. 

And in Sacramento County, Republican Assemblymember Josh Hoover will face Democrat Amy Slavensky, a former Amador County school district superintendent. 

Democrats are also playing defense in Southern California: Sen. Catherine Blakespear, an Encinitas Democrat, will face Republican challenger Laura Bassett in the toss-up district in San Diego County in November.

The Democratic Party is also targeting a pair of competitive open seats in the Central Valley. In Senate District 14, an agriculture-heavy district that covers Fresno and Merced, Democratic Assemblymember Esmeralda Soria will face Republican Darin Dupont, a Merced city councilmember, in November.

In Assembly District 27, a Latino-majority district that favored Trump in 2024 despite having more registered Democrats than Republicans, Mike Murphy, former Merced mayor and a Republican, will likely face Democratic Fresno County supervisor Brian Pacheco. 

Several Democrats are striving to break through a crowded field of candidates in other open races across some of California’s deepest blue corners.
In the coastal Southern California district that includes Malibu and Santa Monica, half a dozen Democrats are vying to succeed Sen. Ben Allen, who is running for insurance commissioner. In Los Angeles, a fierce five-way race has split some of the most powerful labor unions and Democratic groups to replace Democratic Assemblymember Mike Gipson, who will term out by the end of the year.