State economist on NV’s persistently high unemployment rate: It’s complicated

Nevada’s unemployment rate is relatively high, but one state economist believes there’s more to like than dislike about the job market.

Nevada’s unemployment rate is currently 5.3% — the third highest of all the states and D.C. and 1 point above the national unemployment rate of 4.3%.

“I like to say it’s higher than other states, but it’s not high,” said David Schmidt, chief economist at the Nevada Department of Employment, Training, & Rehabilitation (DETR). “Five percent is not a number that I look at and feel a lot of trepidation.”

Other, sometimes overlooked employment data points provide a more nuanced look at the state’s economy, Schmidt said during a May presentation to Nevada’s Economic Forum, an appointed panel that sets the state’s official revenue forecast that determines the state budget.

“‘High unemployment bad, low unemployment good’ is kind of a false picture of things,” he said.

“What matters a lot more, in my mind, is: Why? Is someone unemployed because they have lost their job and they are out there looking for something, desperately trying to find something because they can’t make ends meet? That’s going to be someone who’s in a very different place than someone who is, like, ‘Hey, I’ve heard things are pretty decent in Nevada, I’m going to move there and see if I can find a job.”

While transplants from elsewhere are not counted among the number of people receiving unemployment in the state, they are captured in federal Bureau of Labor Statistics household survey data which is used to calculate unemployment rates.

Rising unemployment due to job loss is a recession indicator, said Schmidt, and updated data through the third quarter of 2025 suggests that isn’t happening in Nevada. Instead, the unemployment rate is being buoyed by reasons other than job loss and is “normal and very distinct from recession,” he added.

Schmidt also pointed to two other data points: employment participation and job growth for additional context. The former is defined as the percentage of non-military, non-institutionalized people aged 16 and older who are either employed or actively looking for work.

Nevada’s employment participation rate is currently 63.6%. That’s higher than the national average by about a point and a half, according to Schmidt.

A significant portion of the people not participating in the workforce do not want a job. This includes those in retirement or choosing to be a stay at home parent.

Nevada is leading the nation in job growth.

“Nationally, the picture is soft,” Schmidt noted, with half of states losing jobs. Nevada had an annual growth rate of 1.9% as of April. That rate is roughly double the second fastest job growth rate in the country, he continued.

It’s “a pretty remarkable number,” he added.

Altogether the data might point to Nevada’s problem being a mismatch between available workers and available jobs.

Driven by the aging population and their needs, healthcare is the one industry where every state has seen growth. Nevada is second when it comes to healthcare jobs growth rate, seeing 4.7% growth  in March 2026 compared to the year prior.

Nevada ranked first for job growth rate in management (5.6%), professional/scientified/technical services (5.5%), business services (5%), information (4.7%), and manufacturing (1.2%), according to DETR presentation materials. Many states are losing jobs in some of those industries.

Schmidt highlighted the software publishers, an industry which, as of third quarter of 2025, had about 7,000 workers in Nevada. A thousand of those jobs were added in the past year. It’s proof the economy is diversifying, though it is still heavily dependent on leisure and hospitality.

As for wage growth. Schmidt described the outlook as “more muted.” He said wage growth overall in the state has been about 4% and on par with inflation, meaning real wage growth is either flat or declining for most.

The construction industry is one outlier in the state and saw larger wage growth. Schmidt noted that Nevada’s construction wages typically outpace the nations. Other industries in Nevada “tend to be around 30th for average wage levels.”