This year, everyone is going low: Political groups spend 3 times more on negative ads than positive

If you feel like you saw an inordinate amount of negative political ads on your phone or TV the past few weeks, you’re right:

Of the $47 million that outside groups have spent on the general election as of Oct. 19, the vast majority has gone to ads attacking opposing candidates rather than touting preferred ones.

Outside groups are going negative more this year than ever, spending over $36 million in negative ads in statewide and legislative elections since Minnesota’s Aug. 11 primary election, compared to the $10 million they’ve spent on positive ads. Outside groups refer to political action committees as well as the campaign arms of party groups, such as the DFL Senate Caucus, which have far less restrictive rules for spending on political advertising compared to the candidates, largely thanks to the Supreme Court’s 2010 ruling in Citizens United vs. FEC.

Republican-aligned groups have spent over $24 million on negative ads since the primaries, and around $5 million on positive ads, while Democratic-Farmer-Labor-aligned groups have spent over $12 million on negative ads and around $4 million on positive ads.

It’s not always been like this — as recently as the 2018 midterms, both parties spent similar amounts on negative and positive ads.

That dark turn is just one example of the vast changes in the state’s campaign finance landscape in recent years.

Here’s another: For the first time in over a decade, outside groups are spending more money to fuel Republicans in statewide and legislative races compared to Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidates.

That remarkable swap in the campaign spending race, first reported by the Star Tribune, is largely thanks to Restore Sanity, a new super PAC created to boost Republican House Speaker Lisa Demuth’s campaign for governor.

Restore Sanity spent $3.8 million to support Demuth in a three-way Republican primary race, and has since poured over $10.3 million for Demuth in her race against Sen. Amy Klobuchar, providing the most significant outside money in support of a statewide Republican candidate in years.

Restore Sanity is mostly funded by the Restoration of America PAC, which is primarily financed by Wisconsin billionaire duo Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein. The Uihleins own one of North America’s largest distributors of shipping and packaging supplies. The unprecedented spending reveals some optimism in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican to a statewide office in two decades.

Minnesota candidates, outside groups, spent big in weeks leading up to Nov. 3 election

In total, Republican outside groups have spent nearly $30 million on statewide office — for governor, attorney general, state auditor and secretary of state — and state House and Senate races, compared to the $17 million spent by DFL outside groups.

The Reformer’s analysis looks at money spent after primary elections for every election since 2016. The exact date of the primary varies each election. For consistency over different election cycles, only spending between Aug. 14 to Oct. 19 of each election year is included in these charts. The campaign finance data released last week includes only spending up until Oct. 19. Contributions received by campaigns and political committees after Oct. 19 are posted on the state’s Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board website.

The second biggest outside group is the Democratic-Farmer-Labor-aligned Alliance for a Better Minnesota, which has spent over $4.7 million on ads against Republican attorney general candidate Ron Schutz, and $3 million on ads against Demuth.

Since the primary election, outside groups have spent $16.9 million on state Senate races, followed by $13.9 million on the gubernatorial race and $10.4 million on the state attorney general race. Significantly less — $5.9 million — was spent on state House races. Voters will choose candidates for all seats in the state’s Legislature on Tuesday.