State of the Race: Dems, GOP barrel toward Election Day as race tightens in KY’s 6th District

Kentucky’s most competitive U.S House race this year continues to tighten as both Republicans and Democrats pull out the stops with days to go before the general election begins. 

The 6th District candidates, Republican Ralph Alvarado and Democrat Zach Dembo, have agreed to one televised debate ahead of the November general election. It’s scheduled for Thursday, Oct. 22, at 7 p.m. EST on Fox56 in Lexington. That’s 12 days from Election Day. 

Before that, President Donald Trump will head to Northern Kentucky, in the 4th Congressional District, on Saturday to boost candidates ahead of what is predicted to be a sour midterm cycle for Republicans nationwide. Alvarado’s campaign manager, Andy Westberry, said the Republican has conflicting events scheduled during the rally as part of the Court Day Festival in Mt. Sterling, “with long-standing commitments and speaking roles at GOP events with supporters from breakfast until evening.”

The current seatholder in the 6th Congressional District, Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Barr, has said he has been invited to speak at the rally as he runs for U.S. Senate. In a Thursday morning gaggle with reporters, Barr said it would be fair to call the 6th “a toss-up.”

However, Alvarado has been campaigning with other top Republicans at campaign fundraisers, like House Speaker Mike Johnson and Ohio U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan. 

Questioning the other side

Speaking about the 6th District race, Barr pushed back at Dembo and Gov. Andy Beshear trying “to make this race about a former governor,” referring to former Republican Gov. Matt Bevin, who was controversial throughout his time in office. Alvarado was Bevin’s running mate in the 2019 election, which he lost to Beshear.

“That former governor is not on the ballot, but you know who is on the ballot?” Barr said. “Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, those people are on the ballot because if Zach Dembo were to win that district in central Kentucky, he would enable them. So this is not about some former governor who’s not on the ballot, but it is about the radical socialists in the United States Congress who would be empowered by a Congressman Dembo. They will be resisted by a Congressman Ralph Alvarado.”

Beshear appeared in an ad with Dembo from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee last week poking fun at a cardboard cutout of Bevin. The governor later said in a press conference that “I’m not the one trying to tie Ralph Alvarado to Bevin; Ralph Alvarado tied himself to Matt Bevin.” 

Dembo’s campaign is not the only one playing offense. A former state trooper, Derrek Lovett, penned an op-ed criticizing how Dembo handled a case against Lovett that appeared in the Washington Reporter, which offers center-right coverage. In 2024, a federal court jury acquitted two former Kentucky State Police officers, including Lovett, accused in an excessive force case over alleged arson at one of the police officer’s homes. Dembo was one of the federal prosecutors on the case. Lovett spoke with reporters following an August press conference where Alvarado accepted the endorsement of the Kentucky Fraternal Order of Police. 

So who will win? 

At this point in the race, there has been no public independent polling. The DCCC released an internal poll Wednesday that showed Dembo leading Alvarado 46% to 40%. Third party candidates had 6% combined support and 8% were undecided. The poll surveyed 606 likely voters and at a margin of error of 4%. 

Leading race raters still predict an Alvarado win, though they have been moving the outcome of the race in Dembo’s favor. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report rate the race as leaning Republican.

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.