Most intriguing RI race to watch? New UNH poll shows LG Matos in tight race with Loughlin

One of the least powerful state offices could end up being the headline of Rhode Island’s general election: Democrat Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos is neck-and-neck with her Republican challenger, John Loughlin, according to a University of New Hampshire poll published Thursday.

The poll of 598 likely general election voters, conducted online from Sept. 17 to 21, shows 48% support for Matos compared with 44% for Loughlin — essentially a statistical tie given the 4% margin of error for the survey. Another 7% of voters were undecided.

The razor-thin margin separating the two contrasts with the gubernatorial race. Democratic nominee Helena Buonanno Foulkes held a commanding lead with 44% support from likely voters, the survey said. Independent Ken Block trailed Foulkes by 19 points, with GOP nominee Aaron Guckian coming in third with 17% support. Ten percent of voters were still undecided, with the remainder split between independents C.D. Reynolds, Jay Gotra or “another candidate,” the poll said.

Foulkes, who trounced Gov. Dan McKee in the September primary, pointed to the latest survey results — the first conducted since she secured the party nomination — as evidence that voters want change.

“Helena is running to be a governor who works every day to lower costs, build homes and apartments people can afford, grow our economy, strengthen our public schools, and create a healthcare system that works for people,” Angelika Pellegrino, a campaign spokesperson, said in a statement. “Over the next 39 days, Helena will continue to campaign in communities all across the Ocean State to earn the support of every Rhode Islander.”

But Block and Guckian weren’t backing down. Block noted that the poll shows nearly 4 in 10 voters viewed Foulkes unfavorably, compared to the 1 in 4 who had a favorable opinion of her. Block’s favorability rating was only slightly higher, at 29%, but with a much smaller share who viewed him unfavorability, 17%. 

“I’m the only candidate in this race with a positive favorability rating, and I’m gaining momentum,” Block said in an email. “This poll demonstrates that a majority of Rhode Islanders don’t want Helena Foulkes as their next governor. My mission is to unify that majority, and as an independent, I’m the only candidate who can.” 

But nearly one in three voters said they didn’t know or weren’t sure what to think of Block, suggesting he lacked name recognition. Just 9% of survey respondents were unsure what to think of Foulkes. 

An even larger share of respondents, nearly 4 in 10, didn’t know or were unsure what to think of Guckian. But Guckian maintained that the poll was the problem, noting that pre-primary polls by UNH showed him trailing his primary rival, Elaine Pelino, by 20 points. Guckian defeated Pelino by 259 votes.

“I know we have a lot of work ahead of us, but I’ve been underestimated before,” Guckian said in a statement. “I’m going to keep doing what I’ve been doing from the beginning, showing up listening to Rhode Islanders, and talking about how we make this state more affordable and make government work better for the people it serves.”

All three main gubernatorial contenders have emphasized affordability, economic development and government efficiency in their campaigns, with Block and Guckian each releasing similar plans to cut “unnecessary” taxes and fees. Foulkes has honed in on the housing crisis, with a promise to build 20,000 homes with funding from the millionaire’s tax and enact a tenant’s bill of rights.

While politically moderate, Foulkes drew the most support from socialist, progressive and liberal voters in the survey, as well as younger voters. Block, who has run for governor twice before, once as a moderate and then as a Republican, was backed by ideological moderates and libertarians, voters 65 and older, and people who voted for Trump in the 2024 election. Guckian, who describes himself as a “compassionate conservative,” was most popular among conservative voters. He was the only candidate whose support skewed heavily toward voters with a high school-level education or less.

Independents favor Loughlin 

In the lieutenant governor’s race, Matos had strong support from registered Democrats and younger voters. But Loughlin, a former state representative, captured the bulk of the independent voters’ support, along with conservative voters and those 65 and older, according to the survey.

Matos, who beat back four primary challengers, bested Loughlin among respondents from every geographic area of the state except for Kent County and Blackstone Valley — both more conservative areas. She also had higher support in every education level except for voters with a technical school background or “some college” — but no degree.

Mark Gray, Matos’ campaign manager, remained confident.

“The real poll is the one that happens on Election Day,” Gray said in a statement Friday. “At a time when Trump and the Republican party’s agenda has resulted in a skyrocketing cost of living, the Matos campaign is looking forward to comparing his dangerous record with the Lieutenant Governor’s work to lower food costs and create more affordable housing.”

Loughlin acknowledged a request for comment but did not provide a response to the survey, citing preparations for his debate against Matos. The two will face off for the first time in a televised debate hosted by WPRI-TV 12 and airing on Fox Providence tonight at 6:30, and already available online.

The survey also took the temperature in the U.S. Senate race, where more than half of likely voters backed incumbent Democrat Jack Reed in his reelection bid. Republican Ray McKay had support from 1 in 3 likely voters, while 5% backed independent Michael Bahry. 

Meanwhile, McKee’s approval rating sank even lower following his defeat in the primary. More than 8 in 10 survey respondents disapprove of the governor’s handling of the job, including two-thirds of registered Democrats. His net favorability rating of minus 68 marks a new low, and continues his dubious distinction as the least popular governor of any New England state. 

McKee’s office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The survey did not ask voters to link their opinions about McKee to the Washington Bridge, though past polls showed a direct connection between the governor’s poor approval ratings and his handling of the closure and rebuild of the westbound highway.

More than 6 in 10 voters remained doubtful that the replacement bridge will open by Nov. 3, 2028, despite repeated assurances from McKee’s administration that the project is on-time, or even ahead of schedule. 

Half of survey respondents said they take detours rather than contend with traffic on the bridge since its closure, with those still using the highway across the Seekonk River reporting their trips take longer. Most said their trips take an extra 10 to 29 minutes. Nearly 1 in 5 respondents said it took them 30 to 44 extra minutes.