Midterm Oklahoma rally signals trouble for Republicans, Trump, experts say

OKLAHOMA CITY — President Donald Trump’s unusual decision to hold a midterm rally in a rural part of Oklahoma, a state long considered a Republican stronghold, signals GOP panic that voters may sit out the election as the president’s popularity wanes.

Political scientists said Thursday’s campaign rally in Durant, a city of about 21,500 people located about 2.5 hours southeast of Oklahoma City, also underscores GOP concerns that a Trump endorsement has decreased in value. 

Trump’s first official appearance in the state in six years also comes as a state party leader said Democrats nationally are putting resources into flipping an Oklahoma City-area congressional seat that has been held by Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Stephanie Bice since 2021. 

“I think it’s a signal of how bad things have gotten for the Republicans under Trump,” said Seth McKee, a political science professor at Oklahoma State University.

While Trump won all 77 of the state’s counties two years ago, his approval ratings have dropped across the country, including in Oklahoma, as war with Iran continues and everyday costs continue to rise. 

McKee said Trump has become “toxic” to Republicans seeking office and he might cause more harm in places that have highly competitive races.  

“He doesn’t hurt in Durant, Oklahoma, but he might be a net negative if he went down to Dallas and campaigned for Ken Paxton,” he said. “… So that’s what we’re dealing with here, which is a real problem. I mean, he’s so unpopular that if you put him in any context where a race is super close, he’s not going to help it, he’s going to hurt it.”

Trump set to rally GOP voters, hold midterm election event in Oklahoma

Paxton, a Republican endorsed by Trump, is running in a tight race against Democrat James Talarico for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas. Paxton defeated incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the primary runoff.

Trump will campaign in Durant with Republican gubernatorial candidate Mike Mazzei, who the president has also endorsed, the Republican National Committee said. He’s also attending a a separate rally Friday in Mobile, Alabama.

A Republican strategist familiar with midterm planning said Trump is holding his rally in Durant because it is near the Texas border and the Dallas-Fort Worth media market. 

A visit there allows Trump to boost Texas candidates and Mazzei at the same time, the strategist said. 

But Allyson Shortle, a professor of political science at University of Oklahoma, said there is likely concern that Trump’s endorsement doesn’t carry the weight it once did. Trump’s visit is meant to boost voter participation within the party base. 

Even with the president’s endorsement, Mazzei won the Republican nomination by a little over 2,000 votes. He’s set to face Democrat Cyndi Munson in November. 

“I think it sort of shows that (Trump) is doing damage control on his base,” Shortle said. “He’s going to the deepest red portions to make sure that they are still on his side and that they will in fact come out for the election. He wants that turnout because elections are won due to mobilization.” 

Congressional seat fight

Shortle said the fight for Oklahoma’s Congressional District 5 seat, which encompasses six counties in central Oklahoma, is also garnering unexpected national attention. 

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has invested resources in Democrat Jena Nelson’s campaign in an attempt to unseat Bice, said Erin Brewer, chair of the Oklahoma Democratic Party.

It’s an unusual move because it’s usually considered a “foregone conclusion” that Oklahoma’s congressional seats will go to Republican candidates, Shortle said.

“If you look at that district in particular, there are a lot of Democratic voters, so they must believe that there is a chance that they could mobilize the Democratic base there to at least have a fighting shot,” Shortle said. 

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee did not immediately respond to requests by publication.

Brewer said the national involvement from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is a big deal because the race between Nelson and Bice is “so close.”

A recent poll of 500 voters conducted by GBAO Strategies found that Nelson is trailing Bice by only five percentage points. The Washington D.C.-based organization works largely with Democratic campaigns.

“I think what people are seeing is (in) what have been ‘Republican strongholds,’ people are waking up to the way Republican policies really failed them,” Brewer said. “And so I think there’s some bellwether states here that maybe have been ignored for the last few years that they’re going to have to start paying attention.”

Trump’s visit to Durant also shows the “weakness” and unpopularity of Mazzei as a candidate, she said. 

“If Trump feels he needs to come and stump for a Republican governor’s candidate in Oklahoma, that should tell you the mood of voters in Oklahoma and that things are shifting,” Brewer said.