To endorse or not to endorse? Influential AFL-CIO decision could determine Gov. McKee’s fate

The focus of the governor’s race has temporarily shifted one block west of the State House to a nondescript office building that houses the Rhode Island AFL-CIO.

That’s where leaders of the 80,000-member labor federation are scheduled to meet Wednesday afternoon to decide if they will endorse a candidate in the Democratic gubernatorial primary — and who. The 15-person executive committee is expected to announce its decision, including the breakdown of votes following a closed-door meeting, expected by 6 p.m. Wednesday, Patrick Crowley, AFL-CIO president said.

The decision is critical for Gov. Dan McKee, whose reelection campaign is in need of a boost after trailing his challenger, Helena Buonanno Foulkes, by double digits in recent polls. Neither candidate received an endorsement from the Rhode Island Democratic Party at its state convention in June.

“He’s had so many losses,” said Joe Fleming, a political analyst for WPRI 12. “He really needs to find a way to start building momentum now that we’re heading into the primary.”

Early voting begins on Aug. 20. The primary is Wednesday, Sept. 9.

A two-thirds majority of the AFL-CIO’s members is required for an endorsement. That could prove difficult, Fleming acknowledged. And even if McKee wins favor with union rank and file, leaders could still decide not to endorse.

The AFL-CIO and the Rhode Island Democratic Party both endorsed McKee in 2022. Foulkes lost to McKee by three percentage points in a four-way Democratic gubernatorial primary.

But tides appear to have turned in Foulkes’ favor, with the former CVS executive prevailing with commanding, 20-percentage-point leads in polls released by WPRI-TV and the University of New Hampshire in May and June, respectively. 

Foulkes maintains a significant cash advantage and has picked up endorsements from a majority of municipal Democratic committees, including McKee’s hometown of Cumberland. On Tuesday, she unveiled endorsements from 26 state and local Democratic lawmakers in conjunction with a ceremonial opening of her campaign headquarters on Broad Street in Providence.

“These endorsements represent what I hear in kitchens and living rooms across the state: Rhode Islanders are ready for change,” Foulkes said in a statement Tuesday night. “That change won’t happen alone, and I am so excited to work together to build a Rhode Island that works for everyone.” 

McKee’s campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment Wednesday.

While Foulkes has also won support from the 12,000-member SEIU Rhode Island State Council, Fleming did not expect the AFL-CIO to consider endorsing her. The options, in his view, are backing McKee, or no endorsement — the latter of which he still considered a win for Foulkes. 

“She has some union support, so it’s not going to be a total shutout,” Fleming said.

Foulkes’ campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment Wednesday. 

McKee has received endorsements from local chapters of the United Nurses & Allied Professionals (UNAP) and the United Food and Commercial Workers. His campaign is also scheduled to join the Teamsters Local 251 at its East Providence headquarters on Thursday afternoon for an unspecified announcement — likely another endorsement.

The largest chunk of the AFL-CIO’s membership comes from the teacher’s two teacher’s unions, which together comprise roughly 24,000 members.

“That’s a big bloc of the union vote,” Fleming said. 

And teachers unions got two big items on their wish list from McKee’s administration this year, according to Fleming.

 In May, Rhode Island Department of Education Commissioner Angélica Infante-Green recommended — and the Council on Elementary and Secondary Education approved — returning Providence Public Schools to local control. The state took over control of the city school system in 2019.

Then in June, McKee signed a union-backed bill banning new charter schools for the next three years, despite his prior support for charter schools and vehement objections to the moratorium from charter school advocates and students’ families. Foulkes has said publicly she would have vetoed the bill.

Union endorsements aren’t just a symbolic win.

“The unions, if they decide to work hard, they’re very good at getting the vote out,” Fleming said. 

Especially in primary races where turnout can shape results, Fleming said. Despite Foulkes’ commanding lead in recent polls, nearly one-third of prospective Democratic primary voters were still undecided in UNH’s latest, June poll. 

Both McKee and Foulkes have since ramped up their ad spending, with each campaign debuting a series of new TV commercials on local networks focused largely on Foulkes’ healthcare record at CVS. Fleming was unsure how much the airwaves battle — now nearly $1.4 million between both candidates — would break through with voters.

“You don’t know till you see more recent polling data,” Fleming said.

The AFL-CIO executive committee includes its president, secretary-treasurer, and 13 leaders representing its local union affiliates. 

Reporter Christopher Shea contributed to this story.