Agricultural economist encourages careful optimism amid trade changes and federal assistance

PIERRE — Resumption of trade with China and potential year-round availability of E15 biofuel could positively impact the farm economy, according to an agricultural economist who spoke Thursday at the Governor’s Ag Summit in South Dakota.

But David Widmar, who focuses on agricultural trends and decision-making for farmers at Agricultural Economic Insights, said they have to balance their optimism with the tough times they’re still facing.

Federal aid for farmers last year helped some of them survive tariff-related market disruptions, and President Donald Trump is pushing for an additional $11.1 billion. That could provide more relief, Widmar said, but “we can’t continue” on a federal funding “treadmill forever.”

“These are a life raft, not a kayak,” he said. “Kayaks are toys that we can plan on using. Life rafts are things that we use to get to the shore. Make sure we don’t confuse those two things.”

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Profits in the livestock sector have been strong, Widmar said, while soybean farmers have been struggling. China temporarily boycotted U.S. soybean purchases last year in response to President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese products.

Trade should be getting “back to normal” after productive diplomacy, Widmar said, but China primarily buys soybeans during the winter months, which is when farmers should expect to see change.

On a longer-term basis, Widmar said the year-round sale of E15 — a gasoline blend containing 15% ethanol — could give farmers more momentum, but it’s “not quite ready for primetime.”

The Trump administration sent a proposal to Congress earlier this week that asks lawmakers to include the year-round sale of E15, among other policy changes, in any supplemental spending bill it approves in the coming weeks and months.

Current federal regulations restrict the sale of E15 from June 1 to Sept. 15 because of its effects on air quality.