Andrew Bailey is back in Missouri and talking like a candidate

Andrew Bailey has been back in Missouri for about two weeks, and he already has a message.

Speaking to a recent gathering of Boone County Republicans, the former attorney general said there’s “a real disconnect right now between where the people are and where some of our leadership is.” He said lobbyists and political consultants are interfering at the Capitol. He said it’s time to take power from “the moneyed interests” and return it to voters.

It’s the easiest pitch in modern politics. The people in charge are the problem, and I’m not one of them.

But it’s a strange pitch coming from Bailey.

He didn’t reach statewide office by beating Jefferson City. He was appointed by it.

Former Gov. Mike Parson, a man who spent decades in elected office and whose comfort in the Capitol’s culture became a common knock against him, picked Bailey for attorney general in 2023.

His 2024 political operation was built with substantial help from Steve Tilley, the former House speaker turned lobbyist and consultant who helped Bailey raise money and whose network of PACs poured cash into his campaign and allied committee. And as attorney general, that money caused Bailey headaches and inspired accusations about whether it shaped his office’s actions.

Judge orders Missouri AG Andrew Bailey to sit for deposition over possible ethics breach

None of this is a new observation. It was the entire case against him in the 2024 Republican primary. Will Scharf spent the campaign arguing Bailey was a creature of Jefferson City. Voters disagreed. But the man who ran as the establishment’s choice two years ago is now running against it.

Or not running. Bailey keeps saying he isn’t running for anything.

The speech in Columbia sounded otherwise. He talked about gas prices, data centers, transmission lines and the county jail. He said he was “energized” and planned to travel the state. Several people in the room left convinced he is eyeing a comeback. His allied PAC still has more than half a million dollars in the bank.

Then there is the question of why he came back.

Bailey told the crowd he “stepped down on my own” from the FBI, that his wife told him to come home and that it was good to be back. Everyone close to Bailey will tell you how big a part of his life his family is. There’s no reason to doubt it played a role.

But it was not a triumphant year in D.C.

National outlets reported tension with FBI Director Kash Patel. People close to Bailey describe him to me as miserable in the job, iced out and unable to get much done. His one high-profile moment came in Fulton County, Georgia, where he was on hand as agents seized 2020 election records.

That fits. In Columbia, Bailey was still warning that blue states are “lying, cheating and stealing elections.” He offered no evidence. There isn’t any. Georgia’s 2020 presidential ballots were counted three times, including once by hand, with each count confirming the result. Courts likewise rejected efforts to overturn the outcome.

Which leaves the bigger question.

In November 2024, voters gave Bailey a four-year term as attorney general. He left after eight months. He lasted about a year at the FBI. If at some point he asks for four more years, somebody should ask him what the over-under is.

Friendly voices in Jefferson City political circles have been floating him as a future statewide candidate for months. The Missouri Times, a website owned by longtime Bailey booster Scott Faughn, covered his return like a homecoming. Its editor, posting from the Columbia event, referred to Bailey as “the war hero from Hermann.”

The Jefferson City insiders who helped build Bailey’s political career are clearly glad to have him back. Bailey would probably prefer you didn’t notice.