Arkansas Republicans betting on Trumpism without Trump

Arkansas voters watching television or YouTube lately would be forgiven if they thought they had stepped back in time to 2024.

An ad by Sen. Tom Cotton invokes Kamala Harris’ name and warns of the dangers of open borders. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, meanwhile, is bragging about fighting the Biden administration to prevent transgender athletes from playing school sports.

The spots by two of the state’s top Republicans show how much the GOP is relying on President Donald Trump’s favorite targets, though not the president himself, in the midterm election. They’re counting on Trump’s talking points and grievances to turn out the base at a time when the president’s approval ratings are falling and other solidly red states have become surprisingly competitive.

Arkansas remains a longshot for Democrats. Recent polling has given Democrats hope, though they face a massive fundraising gap. National forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato still classify the races for governor and Senate as heavily favoring Republicans.

But the focus on two of the issues that Trump used successfully against Harris in the 2024 presidential race indicates Republicans want to ensure party faithful don’t stay home.

For Cotton and Sanders, the ads also return to some of their favorite political lines of attack that predate the 2024 election.

Cotton, who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, has been closely aligned with Trump on immigration enforcement and ran on the issue when he was first elected to the Senate in 2014.

That year, Cotton defeated Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor in a campaign where he repeatedly attacked the two-term incumbent’s work on immigration reform legislation that would have offered a pathway to citizenship to some immigrants in the country illegally. 

Those attacks are echoed in Cotton’s latest ads where he criticizes Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner for saying she would support defunding Immigration and Customs Enforcement “as it currently exists” and citing her past support of Harris.

Sanders’ ad reprises her push for restrictions on transgender youth and athletes, which has included legislation about which pronouns and restrooms students can use. That push has also included gimmicky moves like her campaign selling promotional “Real Woman” koozies in response to a transgender influencer’s partnership with Bud Light.

It’s not surprising to see Cotton and Sanders return to both issues in a state where Trump won nearly two-thirds of the vote. It comes two years after Republicans spent more than $200 million on anti-transgender ads nationally, and even more on ads focused on immigration.  

They’re also following a playbook used by Republicans in other midterm contests, trying to portray Democrats as too radical on issues like immigration and LGBTQ+ rights. Anti-transgender rhetoric was a centerpiece of Trump’s messaging during his Republican midterm convention in Dallas.

Arkansas Republicans are walking a fine line by co-opting Trump’s tactics but also keeping the president at bay.

Democrats see rare signs of hope in solidly red Arkansas’ midterms

It also comes as Democrats are focusing on how Trump’s policies are affecting the state, with Shoffner highlighting the impact his tariffs are having on the state’s farmers. At the same time, Republicans are starting to publicly distance themselves from other Trump stances, from the handling of the war in Iran to his promise of a $5,000 dividend check for every adult citizen if Republicans maintain control of Congress.

Cotton and Sanders’ approach is testing whether Trumpism without Trump will work in a solidly red state in a challenging environment for Republicans nationally.

It may also indicate whether that strategy will work once Trump leaves the White House, especially with Cotton and Sanders regularly mentioned as potential 2028 presidential contenders.

If it works, voters may be stuck in the time machine for even longer.