Overheated Kansas Democrats need to take an ice bath. Hamilton-Marshall race has weeks to go.

Let’s dump a big bucket of ice water over the heads of Kansas Democrats and national news media.

Yes, I understand that everyone wants to jump on the story of Democrat Adam Hamilton giving U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Sarasota, a run for his money in this fall’s election. Don’t get me wrong. It’s a great story.

But it’s only a great story if it happens.

Kansans have not elected a Democrat to a U.S. Senate seat since 1932, and there’s a really simple reason for that. Kansas is a really Republican state. We’re not necessarily the most conservative state — witness our succession of Democratic governors — but voters here vote for Republicans in national races.

True confessions time. I’ve helped whip up this story over the past couple of weeks. Don’t get me wrong: I stand by my accounts of the Kansas State Fair debates and the challenges faced by Marshall’s clumsy campaign. But as my column headline from Monday flashed next to Chris Hayes’ face on MS NOW, I thought it prudent to add a note of caution.

Others agree. “It is probably still Marshall’s race to lose, but the tailwind for Hamilton reflects just how badly Trump has betrayed his own base,” wrote the Bulwark’s Mona Charen on Monday.

Two years ago, a survey from Fort Heys State University showed Kamala Harris shockingly close to now-President Donald Trump in Kansas. That seemed to square with Iowa polling and anecdotal reports from the colossal Kansas Women for Kamala Harris group on Facebook. Trump instead beat Harris by 16 points.

I’ve chowed down on crow ever since.

My columns back then included caveats. (“Trump will almost certainly win Kansas.”) But I’m well aware that in this social media-focused age, many readers only glance at headlines.

So let me make my prognostications clear. While I would not be surprised by a Hamilton victory, I don’t think he’s a sure thing. I’m not a betting man, but I think the odds still favor Marshall by the time we reach November.

Why? History and money. Kansans’ love affair with the Republican Party persists. While it has certainly cooled in some counties (hi, Johnson County folk!), it remains strong overall. Potential voters might tell pollsters they will vote for Hamilton — or a libertarian candidate — to express their current dissatisfaction.

But when Election Day arrives in a month and a half, will they actually take that step?

Let’s also talk money. Trump’s super PAC boasts of $400-plus million in the bank. Richest person in the world Elon Musk has dollars to spare, and he plans to deploy them this fall. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party has found itself scrambling for cash despite public sentiment turning against Republicans.

Not the best scenario for a candidate like Hamilton, who still has to define himself in the public eye. He’s raised substantial sums on his own, but a tidal wave of outside spending could still drown those paltry millions.

Both sides have time. Democrats might still wrest a generation-defining victory in Kansas, but that will take dogged work, smart fundraising and a committed candidate. Republicans can count on loyal voters to support the party through thick and thin, but they have to overcome Marshall’s body full of Achilles’ heels to entice independents.

I don’t know what will happen in November. The fluid dynamics of public opinion favor Democrats, while the fossilized facts on the ground favor Republicans. Politician junkies would be foolish to ignore either.

But never count Republicans out. Certainly not in Kansas.

Clay Wirestone is Kansas Reflector opinion editor. His first book, “Opinionated: Kansas Journalists Who Proved Why Commentary Matters — Then and Now,” comes out Sept. 29 from the University Press of Kansas. Through its opinion section, Kansas Reflector works to amplify the voices of people who are affected by public policies or excluded from public debate. Find information, including how to submit your own commentary, here.