New Mexico continues to see slow job growth after federal employment cuts, new report says

New Mexico continues to see slowed employment growth this year as fields that create new jobs are often offset by ongoing job cuts in the federal workforce and elsewhere, according to a new report on state revenue.

New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department Secretary Stephanie Schardin Clarke told lawmakers on the interim Revenue Stabilization and Tax Police Committee Monday that the state has seen slowed job growth this year. From June of 2025 to June of 2026, the number of jobs in New Mexico grew by less than 1%, she said.

Job growth was concentrated in industries such as mining, retail and state and local government. Job losses, however, predominantly occurred in the federal government, which cut 2,100 jobs in New Mexico during that time period, according to Schardin Clarke’s presentation.

Those cuts have led to “a weakened job market in New Mexico,” she said, adding that the state’s unemployment rate is forecast to be “about equal” to the national rate through the end of 2030.

Schardin Clarke’s presentation provided a forecast for the coming years, which predicts that some industries in the state will create thousands of new jobs between now and fiscal year 2030. Those will likely be partially offset by job cuts in other fields, she said.

She said higher-wage industries, including professional and technical services; construction; and healthcare, are expected to add more than 11,000 jobs in that timeframe. Meanwhile lower-wage industries such as retail and food service are expected to lose nearly 5,000, she said.

New Mexico could see $924M in ‘new money’ largely due to Iran war driving up oil prices

Schardin Clarke and Legislative Finance Committee Chief Economist Ismael Torres, who addressed state lawmakers immediately after her, echoed concerns raised in an August state revenue forecast: New Mexico is “industry-dependent” and vulnerable to a national economic downturn.

Torres’ presentation highlighted several risks facing the national economy that would acutely impact New Mexico, including a sudden stock selloff for artificial intelligence companies, changes in the Iran war and strife at the Federal Reserve.

As he presented to lawmakers in August, Torres said the state is poised to see $924 million in “new money” next fiscal year, largely thanks to increased oil prices creating a new wave of tax revenue for state coffers. A $1 change in the annual average price of New Mexico oil translates to a more than $56 million impact on state revenues, according to Torres’ presentation.

“We’re seeing the slowdown in the economy that we’ve been expecting,” Torres told lawmakers, before reassuring them that the state’s projected increases in revenue for the next fiscal are “quite healthy.”