GOP path to retaining US House majority narrowing as midterms near

WASHINGTON — With less than 70 days until midterm elections, Democrats remain favored to regain the majority in the U.S. House.  

President Donald Trump’s anemic approval ratings amid the war in Iran, concerns over the economy and a coalitional shift within the party mark some of the largest headwinds facing Republicans heading into November, according to election analysts and political scientists interviewed by States Newsroom. 

Though the GOP’s mid-decade redistricting push could help them shore up several seats and the battleground of competitive districts stands relatively small, Democrats maintain an edge to win the House, said Erin Covey, an editor specializing in U.S. House races for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. 

“I would say that Republicans have a path to holding the House, but they kind of have to pitch a perfect game at this point in the cycle,” Covey said.  

The GOP’s current House majority stands at 218-212. The Cook Political Report lists 21 House races as toss-ups, with Republicans defending 16. 

Costs haven’t dropped

Robert Speel, an associate professor of political science at Penn State Behrend in Erie, pointed to Trump’s dismal approval ratings and the impact of the war in Iran on gas prices as among the major disadvantages facing the GOP heading into Election Day on Nov. 3.  

“Trump’s popularity is down below 40% in pretty much every poll now, and even in the low 30s or high 20s in some polls, and the Iran war is not even popular with Republicans, which has led to higher gas prices and his tariffs have led to inflation,” Speel said. 

“It seems, from some numbers, possibly job losses in the last year and a half, so the economy is not doing particularly well, and I ... expect it to drag down the Republicans in November,” he added. 

Just 33% of Americans approve of how Trump is handling his job as president, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Aug. 24. The result tied for the lowest approval rating the pollster found since Trump took office in 2017.

Just 31% of respondents expressed approval of U.S. military strikes against Iran, including 69% of Republicans.  

Among registered voters, 36% said Democrats had a better plan or policy regarding the cost of living, compared with 28% choosing Republicans.   

When the GOP secured a trifecta of the White House, Senate and House in 2024, voters gave the party homework to lower prices and do so right away, but Republicans failed that assignment, said Democratic campaign strategist Reed Adamson. 

“Prices have gone up, and so, you’re going to see them try and wiggle out of that every time, but it comes up in so many different ways, whether it is anecdotes about cost of groceries or gas or just overall cost of living or even just consumer sentiment about the economy,” Adamson said. 

“It is going to be really hard for them to wiggle out of it, and I think Democrats, for the most part, have been just sort of really disciplined in hammering that home,” he added. 

Dems confident

The Democratic Party’s campaign apparatus for House races expressed confidence they will take back the House.

“Democrats are going to flip the House majority in November because we have the better message, better candidates, and strong momentum on our side,” Nebeyatt Betre, a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson, said in a statement shared with States Newsroom. 

“All Republicans have to offer are higher prices families hate, unpopular rigged maps voters hate, and devastating health care cuts everybody hates,” Betre said. “Democratic candidates are winning over voters because they’re talking about their plans to lower costs, strengthen access to health care, and make Congress work for working people.”

GOP’s map, cash advantages

Meanwhile, the GOP’s campaign arm for House races sees several factors in their favor, including that progressive candidates have won Democratic primaries in some competitive races.  

“House Republicans are running on a more favorable map with historic fundraising, stronger candidates, and a commonsense agenda, while Democrats are saddled with a deeply unpopular agenda and radical socialist nominees hijacking the must-win districts they need to take the majority,” Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement shared with States Newsroom. 

Twenty-three Democrats are running in districts Trump won in 2024, including 21 where Trump garnered more than 50% of the vote, according to a June NRCC battleground memo. 

The NRCC also holds a $13.7 million cash-on-hand advantage over the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, as of mid-July.  

And, despite low poll numbers for Republicans, their opponents have not sold voters on a clear alternative, Daniel Scarpinato, a Republican campaign strategist, said.

“Republicans face some headwinds, but Democrats actually have to say, ‘Here’s what we’re going to do differently,’ and they haven’t really been able to articulate that,” Scarpinato said. “It’s really just been a pretty anti-Trump message, but they haven’t told people, ‘Here’s what we’re going to do.’”

He noted that in focus groups, swing voters are not “ecstatic about the Democratic Party.”

Turnout problem

Republicans are also facing a challenge in getting their voters to the polls, as their coalition has transitioned to include fewer college-educated and older people, and those groups historically turn out the most in midterms, according to Ryan Owens, a political science professor and director of the Institute for Governance and Civics at Florida State University. 

Trump has pivoted the party more toward blue-collar voters and away from the more affluent and educated voters whose high turnout rates buoyed the party in past midterm election cycles. 

Without Trump up for reelection, the party will likely struggle to activate the coalition that twice sent him to the White House, Owens said.

“You used to see Republicans do really well in midterm elections,” he said. “But now that they don’t rely so much on that college-educated, white vote, their coalition doesn’t turn out as much as it used to in midterms.

“Without having Trump on the ballot, without having a presidential election that generates that kind of enthusiasm to turn out, Republicans have been doing worse and worse during midterms,” he added. 

Covey, of the Cook Political Report, said Republicans’ redistricting blitz and the number of pickup opportunities Republicans drew themselves across Texas, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and other Southern states is the main reason they have any path to keeping their majority. 

However, “there’s a lot of variance in that because the seats that were redistricted, many of them are still quite competitive, and so, there’s a world in which Democrats hold on to them this cycle, for sure,” she said.