Crowley has slight lead on Tiffany with likely voters in post-primary poll

Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Crowley polled slightly ahead of Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany in the first Marquette Law School poll conducted since the primary earlier this month. The poll results were released Wednesday.

The poll was conducted from Aug. 12, the day after the primary, through Aug. 20. Surveyors interviewed 891 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of 4 percentage points. The likely voter sample was 738, with a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

With less than three months until the midterm election Nov. 3, the candidates have been criss-crossing the state to get their names out to voters and win over support. 

 Crowley pulled in support from 49% of  likely Wisconsin voters, while Tiffany had 44%; another 7% of likely voters said they were undecided. Among registered voters, Crowley and Tiffany were tied at 44%.

The poll found a Democratic advantage among those who are certain that they’ll vote in November, with  84% of Democrats reporting they were certain compared with 82% of Republicans.

“You could either come away with a modest Crowley advantage, by about five points, or a dead tie, depending on whether you’re looking at everybody that’s registered to vote or looking at those absolutely certain to vote,” poll director Charles Franklin said.

The poll showed that 98% of likely voters who were Democrats planned to vote for Crowley, while 91% of likely Republican voters said they planned to vote for Tiffany. 

The biggest percentage of undecided voters were independents: 30% of independents who said they were likely to vote were undecided. Among registered voters, undecided independent voters jumped to 47%.

Among likely voters, Crowley had an advantage with independent voters. About 55% said they supported him, while 16% said they would support Tiffany.

Following the divisive and chaotic primary campaign, Crowley called on Democrats to unify to win in November and campaigned with state Rep. Francesca Hong, who finished a close second in the primary.  

“It’s interesting that the Democrats do appear to be completely unified behind their candidate and Republicans, quite unified, but not quite as much as Democrats,” Franklin said. 

Tiffany and Crowley will be working to win over undecided voters and flip people to support them over the next 10 weeks, especially as Wisconsin’s statewide races are typically decided by close margins. In 2018, Gov. Tony Evers defeated Gov. Scott Walker by about 30,000 votes.