Takeaways from primary election night in Washington

Tuesday night’s initial vote counts in Washington’s primary election can be boiled down to a simple dichotomy: Good for Democrats, bad for Republicans. 

Democrats look poised to gain seats in the Legislature as they close in on a supermajority that would make it easier to pass policies Republicans oppose. Southwest Washington is a particular sore spot for the GOP, as incumbents there are struggling.

Nearly two years into Donald Trump’s second term as president, there are strong signs Democrats are motivated to turn out at the polls. And it’s unclear Republicans have gained major traction so far trying to capitalize on opposition to the income tax on high earners Democrats pushed through the Legislature earlier this year.

The good news for Democrats extends to the state Supreme Court, where left-of-center candidates are looking strong, including appointees of Gov. Bob Ferguson. 

And in Congress, incumbents similarly are mostly cruising to reelection. In the battleground 3rd District, U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has a slim lead, and early tallies bode well for Democratic vote gains in a district that could be the difference in Democrats taking the House.

Hundreds of thousands of votes remain to be counted, and will be posted in the coming days.

Until then, here are some takeaways from Tuesday’s results.

Legislative Democrats eye gains

Democrats in Olympia already have wide majorities of 30-19 in the state Senate and 59-39 in the House. But they’re gunning for two-thirds supermajorities. This would require flipping seven seats in the House, and Tuesday’s results signal they could be within striking distance.

In the 17th and 18th legislative districts in southwest Washington, four Republican House incumbents look vulnerable. 

Democratic Navy veteran Ben Christly in the 17th, for example, has a hefty lead over GOP Rep. Kevin Waters. Likewise, Rep. David Stuebe trails Democratic opponent Diana Perez by nearly 10 percentage points. 

Meanwhile, in the somewhat swingy 26th District, Republican Katy Cornell leads the primary in the race to replace GOP Rep. Michelle Valdez. But two Democrats split a majority of the votes tallied so far. Renee Hernandez Greenfield is set to face Cornell in the general election. 

In the 12th Legislative District, attention has been on the far-right challenge from pastor Adam James to Rep. Mike Steele, R-Chelan. But a tight race is emerging for the district’s other seat, held by Rep. Brian Burnett, R-Wenatchee. After Tuesday’s results, the incumbent lawmaker trailed financial services professional Stacy Willoughby, a Democrat, by 46 votes. 

In the other chamber, Sen. Manka Dhingra said she sees no path for Republicans to flip a seat. Democrats trail in the open 42nd District primary in Whatcom County, but combined vote totals bode well for them to hold an open Senate seat there in November.

Rep. Jim Walsh, chair of the state Republican Party, was optimistic about his party’s overall outlook on social media, noting conservative Supreme Court candidates advancing to November. He didn’t mention the legislative races. 

Incumbents feeling good…

Across legislative, congressional and state Supreme Court contests, incumbents were performing well.

Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen, D-Seattle, is easily holding off a left-flank challenge from Hannah Sabio-Howell, despite concerns about his vulnerability in Seattle’s 43rd District. Both will likely advance to the general election.

Steele is cruising as James looks poised to finish third behind Democrat Maggie Adams.

Rep. Gerry Pollet, D-Seattle, was well ahead of two Democratic challengers, attorney Will Dreher and urbanist Ron Davis. Dreher will advance to the general election, but Pollet has over 54% of the vote. Another subplot here is the weakness of Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson’s endorsees, Davis and Sabio-Howell, who both fell flat. 

Sen. Nikki Torres, R-Pasco, is fending off fellow Republican Gabe Galbraith, a Kennewick school board member, in the 8th District. Torres is new to the district due to redrawn boundaries.

And on the close-watched state Supreme Court, three incumbents are well positioned. Colleen Melody and Theo Angelis, both new to the court and on the ballot for the first time, led their primaries, though Angelis faces a tough battle with past candidate Dave Larson. 

… Even the moderates

Moderate Democrats facing lefty challengers from within their own party were thought to be in possible peril going into Tuesday. But they could be in good shape.

Rep. Amy Walen, D-Kirkland, leads Redmond City Councilmember Jessica Forsythe with over 50% of the early tally.

Rep. Debra Entenman, D-Kent, faced three challengers, including a Democrat and a self-described Cascade Democrat. But she’s likely to square off with libertarian Cobi Clark in November. Entenman led the early primary vote, and with votes from her fellow Democrats, she should sail to reelection.

Rep. David Hackney, D-Renton, leads fellow Democrat and nurse Ashley Fedan handily. A Republican, Christian Rombough, is in third with 27.5%. 

Rep. Adison Richards, D-Gig Harbor, is one of the most moderate members of the House Democratic caucus. He’s navigating a challenge from his left from union advocate Natalie Bornfleth. She pointed out her support for the state’s new income tax, which Richards voted against. But Bornfleth trails Richards. Republican David Olson leads, but if Richards can win over Bornfleth voters, he should be in good shape.

Rep. Melanie Morgan, D-Parkland, has endured swipes from fellow Democrat Krista Perez for her vote against the income tax. While Morgan and Perez both will advance to the general election, Perez leads by five votes after the initial tally, indicating a tight contest in November.

Hennrich voters may hold the key for MGP

In Congress, Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Skamania County, had a narrow lead over state Senate Minority Leader John Braun, a Republican. Fewer than 300 votes separate the two.

But looking toward the fall, the most notable pocket of primary ballots may be those for liberal Democrat Brent Hennrich. 

He held 15% of the vote Tuesday night. Will his supporters shift gears and back MGP? Or will they sit this election out over frustrations that she’s voted too often with Republicans? It’s not yet clear if Hennrich will endorse Gluesenkamp Perez.

Braun said at an election night party in Centralia he was “pleased” with the results, particularly more than 60% of voters going for someone other than Gluesenkamp Perez.

Gluesenkamp Perez won her 2024 race against Joe Kent, beating him for a second time in consecutive election cycles. Kent went on to a job in the Trump administration before resigning over the war in Iran earlier this year. Republicans hope a more traditional Republican, like Braun, could help their chances in this toss-up district.

The rest of Washington’s congressional incumbents are coasting through. 

Trump ally advances in central Washington

Amanda McKinney is cutting through a big field of Republican hopefuls aiming to win the open 4th Congressional District in central Washington. 

The Yakima County commissioner is set to face Democrat John Duresky in November in the safe Republican seat, held by U.S. Rep. Dan Newhouse, who is retiring after more than a decade in office. 

McKinney, who has President Donald Trump’s support, earned 34.9% of Tuesday’s primary vote to Duresky’s 30.8%. Newhouse’s previous opponent, Jerrod Sessler, garnered just 14.2%, and state Sen. Matt Boehnke trailed with 10.3%. 

Close race for a Supreme Court position

King County Superior Court Judge Jaime Hawk is hoping to hold onto a tight lead over appeals court Judge Mike Diaz in the campaign for an open position on the state Supreme Court.

Mason County Superior Court Judge David Stevens, who has the support of the state Republican Party, leads with 35.8%. But whoever goes through between Hawk and Diaz, who are both left-of-center candidates, will have the advantage going toward November. As of Tuesday, Hawk leads Diaz by about 2 percentage points, or roughly 19,000 votes. 

It could take a few more days of vote counting for the picture to become clear in this contest.