Missouri could be on the hook for $150 million in food benefits due to error rate

Missouri will be required to cover 10% of federal nutrition assistance starting in 2027 — roughly $150 million —  if it doesn’t improve the accuracy of benefit payments to low-income residents, according to data released last week by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed by Congress last July will require states with payment error rates above 6% to fund between 5% and 15% of benefits paid out through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, starting Oct. 1, 2027. It will be the first time in the program’s history that federal funds will not cover 100% of benefits issued by states.

Missouri’s error rate for federal fiscal year 2025 was 8.67%. 

That’s an improvement from the state’s SNAP error rate of 9.42% in fiscal year 2024 and 10.54% in 2023. 

SNAP payment error rates measure the accuracy of benefit payments, including both overpayments and underpayments. They do not measure fraud.

The state faces increased responsibility for SNAP costs amid warnings of deep budget cuts as the surplus lawmakers relied on for years to balance the state budget dwindles.

Missouri delays SNAP restrictions on candy, sugary drinks until 2027

Food security advocates worry that as narrower SNAP eligibility requirements go into effect, Missourians could lose access to food benefits that they are entitled to receive.

Baylee Watts, a spokesperson for the Missouri Department of Social Services, told The Independent the state’s lower error rate stems from  “ongoing efforts to strengthen eligibility determination and program administration.”

Watts said any state share of SNAP benefits Missouri might owe in 2027 would be based on its error rate for the 2026 federal fiscal year, which runs through September.

But Christine Woody, food security policy manager for Empower Missouri, told The Independent the recently released data should guide budget discussions during the 2027 legislative session.

Since the USDA won’t release this year’s error rates until June 2027, Woody cautioned, Missouri lawmakers will have to pass next year’s budget without knowing the state’s SNAP cost share.

“We can’t just hope that it’s going to be a 0% cost share and just not put anything in the budget and then be hit with a $150 million price tag after the fact,” Woody said.

Missouri lawmakers voted in May to approve the department’s request of an additional $29.3 million in general revenue to cover the state’s increased share of SNAP administrative costs due to the federal law, which will go into effect on Oct. 1.

States scramble

State and county officials from across the country urged Congress in January to postpone the effective date of state SNAP cost shares until October 2029 to give states more time to improve payment accuracy.

In a letter to U.S. House and Senate leaders, groups including the National Governors Association and National Association of Counties argued SNAP policy changes included in the 2025 federal budget law, along with disruption to SNAP payments during last year’s 43-day federal government shutdown, undermined “program stability and integrity” nationwide.

“Ultimately, we fear that the compounding effects of these developments could put SNAP in jeopardy across the country if states and counties do not receive some form of relief,” the letter reads.

Congressional Democrats have pushed to postpone SNAP error rate penalties in the farm bill, the sprawling legislation covering agricultural and safety net programs typically passed by federal lawmakers every five years. But a postponement was not included in the version of the bill passed by the House in April or the Senate draft released last week.

Woody said she hasn’t lost hope that Congress will postpone the state cost share.

“The farm bill is the best hope for that,” Woody said.

Ripple effects

Food security advocates emphasized that SNAP error rate penalties aren’t only a state budget matter. They also impact SNAP recipients and applicants — and members of their families and communities.

Katherine Holley, a senior attorney for Legal Services of Eastern Missouri who assists clients with public benefit applications, said she is concerned that in a quest for lower error rates, the department will request more documentation that SNAP recipients and applicants aren’t able to provide.

“Some people just don’t have the documents that the agency is requesting,” Holley said.

Holley gave the recent example of a client who is exempt from SNAP work requirements because they care for a disabled individual. Although federal law generally allows states to accept self-attestation of exemptions from SNAP work requirements, Holley said the department requested a letter from the disabled individual’s doctor confirming that they needed care.

“If that’s a friend or neighbor, that’s a very high bar to verify,” Holley said. “And then if they aren’t able to get that one specific piece of paper that’s requested, they lose their benefits. Then they’re subject to the work requirement, and they have to work, not care for this person.”

Woody worries the new federal rules could incentivize states to “add more roadblocks and administrative hurdles for people accessing the program.”

The number of Missourians receiving SNAP benefits has decreased by more than 45,000 people since October 2025 — just before the department implemented expanded SNAP work requirements and more limited eligibility for refugees and asylees. 

The more verification requirements the department adds, Holley said, the less time department staff will have to help eligible Missourians get and keep their benefits.

“There are many ways to meet exemptions that people qualify for, but if they’re not being screened properly,” Holley said, “they can’t avail themselves of those exemptions. They can’t explore them.”