Messages of frustration, charm layered into record number of Kansas campaign ads in 2024

TOPEKA — Incumbent Democratic state Rep. Jason Probst starred in a blunt rebuttal to conservative Republican attacks ahead of the November election.

The Republican House Campaign Committee and the Kansas Chamber PAC worked overtime to present a distorted picture of Probst as a leftist advocate of higher income taxes, the sale of farmland to communists and for surging fuel prices. The anti-Probst blitz claimed he wanted to shower undocumented immigrants with government benefits. It also said the Democrat should be ashamed of taking campaign contributions from “special interests.”

The assault was designed to bolster GOP challenger Kyler Sweely, who had recently moved to Hutchinson.

“You’re hearing a lot of things about me this election season,” said Probst, who brandished a firearm in the commercial while leaning against a truck parked next to a farm field. “But there’s one thing I want you to know. My opponent and the dark-money groups supporting him are full of s***. I’d appreciate your vote November 5.”

It’s difficult to determine whether the commercial benefitted or damaged Probst, but Sweely emerged from obscurity with a 294-vote victory against a four-term incumbent in a legislative race decided by 7,200 voters.

Bob Beatty, a Washburn University political science professor who has curated a massive online archive of Kansas political ads, said during Kansas Reflector’s podcast that Probst released the commercial after his constituents were inundated with negative messaging by mail, radio and television.

“I just liked his response, because it was so honest and so clever and just straightforward. It does feature a curse word, but also a rare thing as well — a candidate holding a pistol,” Beatty said. 

The Probst spot, which will be added to Beatty’s online database of about 2,000 Kansas political commercials dating back decades, was part of a record-breaking volume of commercials in the 2024 election cycle. Instead of several dozen commercials, there were more than 200.

“It’s been increasing for years. Now the parties and the candidates can go after people not only just watching regular television, the local news, but all those streaming services,” Beatty said.

Roeser v. Zito

In another competitive Kansas House contest, Republican nominee Angel Roeser prevailed over Democrat Kim Zito to decide who served a district in Manhattan. The Republican House Campaign Committee paid for an anti-Zito ad chronicling her posts to social media, while also bankrolling an ad declaring Roeser to be a champion of common sense who put family and community above political partisanship.

Roeser carried 52.4% of the vote to Zito’s 47.5%, which was a gap of more than 500 votes, despite the revelation Roeser falsely claimed to have graduated from Kansas State University.

The GOP’s approach to Zito drove home the point that folks interested in elective office ought to appreciate social media posts had the potential to haunt if discovered by opposition researchers.

The anti-Zito commercial opened with a narrator framing the problem in terms of a question: “We’ve all said things online we regret, but have you said … ?” The screen then displays a sample of Zito’s commentary. It included an assertion the growing national debt might not be a “real concern.” In 2020, she wrote “defund the police.” A year later, she shared that “I want to see the Catholic Church go extinct.”

Beatty said the ad was damaging because it raised questions about what kind of legislator Zito might become. It also demonstrated that, even in an era defined by Donald Trump’s bombastic campaigning, not everyone could get away with spewing contentious statements.

“Donald Trump is Donald Trump,” Beatty said. “He is, I would still argue, an anomaly.”

The Kansas House GOP committee also invested in a commercial burnishing the image of Roeser. On that ad, Roeser said her opponent was the “face of extreme partisanship,” but she devoted most of the advertisement to emphasizing the state’s problems weren’t partisan. She said reasonable solutions weren’t red or blue, but purple. She closed with a wink.

“It’s a feel-good ad on her side,” Beatty said. “The wink is a gamble, because Sarah Palin did it and got mocked for it years ago. But here, I do think it works.”

Beatty said this kinder, gentler approach to campaigning was a common feature in commercials for other Kansas Republican candidates, including incumbent Rep. Sandy Pickert of Wichita.

“We’ve all seen the stories of a broken system, political fighting and bitter partisanship. I believe there’s a better way,” Pickert said.

Pickert said she’d worked with Republicans and Democrats on public school funding and with Gov. Laura Kelly to make child care more affordable for working mothers.

The political action committee paid for the Pickert ad in a quest to preserve or expand the GOP’s partisan advantage in the House. It was a response to the Democratic governor’s $2 million PAC aimed at diminishing the GOP’s supermajority in the Legislature.

Republicans picked up three seats in the House. A slice of that was Pickert’s defeat of Democratic opponent Veronica Gillette by 187 votes for a 51% to 49% win.

“It really just represents the strategy of the Republicans, which … was obviously successful,” Beatty said.

Davids and Estes

In the state’s 3rd congressional district, U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids was reelected in a contest against Republican Prasanth Reddy. She won by 40,000 votes in a district gerrymandered to include more rural voters who Republicans thought might be loath to vote for her.

“It sort of begs the question, how does she do it?” Beatty said. “They do it by addressing the concerns of that district in a bipartisan fashion.”

Beatty said Davids persuasively responded to voters’ anxiety about price inflation with a commercial touting her support for the federal Price Gouging Prevention Act. The bill would forbid corporations from preying on consumers by keeping prices artificially high for maximum profit.

“The Price Gouging Prevention Act. It’s a mouthful,” said Davids, speaking from a grocery store. “It’s meant to put more food on your table and keep more money in your pocket.”

Beatty said voters might have been tempted to blame a U.S. House member aligned with Democratic President Joe Biden. He said Davids’ tactic was to affiliate herself with people frustrated by inflation, blame greedy corporations for the ongoing problem and offer a potential remedy.

“Don’t let Donald Trump, you know, take 100% of the populism,” Beatty said.

In Wichita, Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Estes had some fun with a commercial that declared he was the congressman who delivered for constituents. Estes sought reelection as a favorite against Democrat Esau Freeman. When the ballots were counted, Estes won by more than 90,000 votes.

Estes put together a commercial that opened with three different constituents on the phone with the congressman. One spoke of a passport issue. Another had problems with a visa. The other shared concerns with Social Security. The video then captured each expressing gratitude to Estes for dealing with their challenges.

Estes also was shown responding to routine family issues, such as grabbing milk and eggs for his wife, state Rep. Susan Estes of Wichita.

“I approve this message,” Estes told viewers. “Because I work for you. And, sometimes, Susan, of course.”

Beatty said the commercial humanized Estes and celebrated his work ethic without mentioning his Democratic opponent.

“He knows he’s going to win, which means he can do something like this,” Beatty said. “This is really a public service ad, and it should be run in a nonelection year. There’s a practical side to it. It could set him up to run for an office down the road, whether it’s governor or U.S. senator, just because he’s generating some very positive feelings about himself.”