Analysts shift western Montana congressional district to toss-up status

Three political analyses this week moved Montana’s competitive western congressional race toward the Democratic candidate, with two shifting the race into “toss up” status. 

The race by Democratic smokejumper Sam Forstag and Republican veteran and radio host Aaron Flint has been Montana’s most competitive federal election since current Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke announced his retirement. Libertarian Nick Sheedy is also running. 

In rapid succession, Fox News, the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections all upgraded the race in favor of Forstag this week. 

Tuesday morning, before a congressional debate, Fox News released new “power rankings” shifting the race from “leans Republican” to “toss up.”

That was followed by a Thursday announcement by Inside Elections that the race had moved from “lean Republican” to “tilt Republican,” and on Friday the Cook Political Report changed the race to a “toss up.” 

“Montana families are fed up with corrupt politicians and political puppets like Aaron Flint telling us to ignore what we’re seeing and feeling every day while we fight to afford rent, gas, and groceries,” Forstag said in a statement. “We need leaders who will work to find actual solutions, not just talk about them on the radio. I’m so proud of the work we’ve done to rally our community around the struggles and solutions that can unite us.”

The Cook Political Report cited heavy investments from both the Democratic House Majority PAC and President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC as evidence that both sides view the race as close. 

According to Quiver Quantitative, a data aggregator, the race has seen more than $3.5 million in outside spending in the previous week alone. 

Looking to boost turnout among his Republican base, Trump stopped in Kalispell on Wednesday night for a rally alongside Flint and the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, Kurt Alme. 

Before a few thousand attendees, Flint and Trump took the stage together, shared a handshake, a smile and remarked about the “dumbocrat” in the race. 

“We’re going to defeat far-left lobbyist, phony Sam Forstag, not respected at all,” Trump said. “And we’re going to elect a true American patriot, a fantastic man, a great guy, Aaron Flint, to Congress. He’s going to Congress to be a warrior.”

Cross-partisanship appeal

Forstag’s campaign said the president’s visit was a sign Republicans are scared of the race.

While Trump was stumping in the Flathead, Forstag held a small rally outside Bozeman and on Thursday held a town-hall discussion in Libby with Marc Racicot, a former Montana governor and former Republican National Committee chairman. 

The event was the latest in a series of “civil discourse town halls” Forstag has held on the campaign trail aimed at finding common-ground solutions among individuals with differing political ideals. 

Racicot served as governor from 1993 to 2001, and ran President George W. Bush’s re-election campaign. 

Racicot has taken heat from the Montana GOP in recent years, including being disowned by the state GOP, after coming out against Trump during the 2020 and 2024 elections and endorsing Democrats. 

There is “an honest purpose, and a code of conduct in the ethics that Sam brings to this race,” Racicot told the more than 80 attendees. “He is a great student of what is going on in the country. He’s an extraordinarily kind and thoughtful human being. He’s principled and focused upon the best interest of the people that he lives with, that he wants to serve.”

The pair discussed a variety of topics including health care, limiting corporate spending in elections and best forest management practices. 

Racicot criticized the “Big Beautiful Bill” for transferring a trillion dollars from the Medicaid program and the SNAP program — formerly known as food stamps —  into tax reform. 

“That tax reform, as it ends up in the pockets of Americans, mostly goes into the pockets of those at the higher end of the wage spectrum or the wealth spectrum,” Racicot said. “As a consequence of that, we now are faced with a Medicaid emergency, and it’s only going to grow worse in January. 

Racicot also spoke about the administration taking a “hacksaw,” to the Forest Service budget, which was an impetus for Forstag getting into the race. 

“I was leader in my union’s Local when all the cuts started just over a year-and-a-half ago,” Forstag said. “I reached out to the person you should be able to call when our public lands are under attack, when working people’s livelihoods are under attack … our congressperson.”

When he got “crickets” in response, Forstag said he decided to get involved. 

Forest management is his primary background as a wildland firefighter, and Forstag said he wants to see forest management policies become proactive before wildfires become costly and dangerous, and help restore the state’s lumber industry. 

“We’re down to six sawmills across western Montana. We used to have 30 or 40,” Forstag said. “And the way that we rebuild that, I say this as a firefighter. It’s not just by fighting fire. It’s not by waiting until things are burning. It’s by fighting before they start.”

He added that responsible timber harvest will help with the housing crisis by boosting the state’s lumber industry. 

“I’d like to be part of making sure we’re reforming processes to make sure it doesn’t take five to six years to get a timber sale through in the front country on federal public lands,” he said. 

Forstag said that the town halls align with the premise of his campaign — just as important as fighting for specific policies, is fighting for a country where civil discourse is the norm. 

“We’re fighting … to get to a place where we can sit down with somebody we do not agree with on everything, and talk about all the values that we share in common and find common ground and solutions,” Forstag said. “Because that seems like an entirely lacking skill set in all the Congress today.”