Reporters roundtable: Gubernatorial and legislative races to watch

Transcript was created using an automated software.

Chris Fitzsimon 

This is Stories From The States. I'm Chris Fitzsimon. Thanks for being here. Here at States Newsroom, we know there's a lot to keep up with in every state capital as we get closer and closer to election day. It's an understatement to say the 2026 November midterms are going to be contentious. So we'll be doing something a little bit different this episode. We're going to zoom in on a few states with especially heated gubernatorial races, and some states who can see the political makeup of their state houses flip. All while the shadow of President Donald Trump's influence could dictate how voters act. Ben Solis Michigan is the center of the political universe right now. It feels like you know. I don't want to dismiss any other states' dynamics. Baylor Spears It's funny because I also feel I feel like Wisconsin is really the political center of the universe right now. Ben Solis Cheers to the Midwest. Alander Rocha I think I think Georgia could could compete as well. Chris Fitzsimon To help us wrap our heads around some gubernatorial races and state legislative battles, we have Alander Rocha from the Georgia Recorder, Ben Solis from the Michigan Advance and Baylor Spears from the Wisconsin Examiner. All right, let's start off talking about the gubernatorial races in these in these three states. Our outlet Stateline is reporting that Democrats actually might end up with a majority of governors' offices after this election for the first time in 16 years. You all have interesting governors' races. Baylor, Wisconsin. David Crowley, the Democrat, and Tom Tiffany, the Republican. Give us an idea. That's been close. 

Baylor Spears  
Yes, it's been very close. David Crowley, the Democrat, he is currently the Milwaukee County Executive, and he won in a pretty competitive primary. He is facing Tom Tiffany, the Republican congressman from up north. He currently represents the largest congressional district here, and he is one of the more conservative congressional members here. They are running pretty close. David Crowley is up in polling over Tom Tiffany, but it's definitely within the margin of error.

Chris Fitzsimon  
Couple, couple, a couple quick quirky things about that race: that Crowley was in the race, then he dropped out. Tiffany's had a plane crash. Crowley would be the first black governor of Wisconsin. There's a million things going on there. I don't know how you keep up.

Baylor Spears  
Oh, it's it's exciting every day. It's an adventure. It's the first open governor's race since 2010, and so we had like a very exciting sort of democratic primary. There were a number of candidates. Crowley was, you know, he was in the race until basically there was a democratic socialist. Her name's Francesca Hong. She was doing very well in the primary, and this was this had a number of sort of longtime Democrats very nervous about her winning here in Wisconsin, just concerns about whether or not she could win in a very swingy state. And so, at first, folks were sort of getting behind the current lieutenant governor, but then she had a financial scandal, ended up dropping out. David Crowley had endorsed her, and then the current governor basically was like, "Oh no, Sara Rodriguez is out, and decided to sort of help get Crowley back in the race. And then Tom Tiffany, he sort of got through the primary with the endorsement of Trump, that helped clear the field for him, so he's been pretty much running. You know, the the only candidate for several months.

Chris Fitzsimon  
All right, let's check in with Georgia. Alander, the pretty tight race. I think a lot of people have heard of the Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, long time, or she was mayor of Atlanta. I think if you went through the Atlanta airport, you heard her voice about 100 times before you got on the plane. And Republican Rick Jackson, who I don't know, I'm not sure people outside of Georgia knew as much about. Give us an idea of what's happening there.

Alander Rocha  
Yeah, no, Rick Jackson. He was a late entrant to the race, and when he announced, very few people knew who he was. People in Republican circles knew knew him. He's been active in Republican politics, but folks outside of politics really didn't know they knew of Jackson Healthcare, which he's the executive of, but you know since then he's put I think nearly $90 million worth of ads out there. So people in Georgia definitely have learned his name..9090 yeah so of his own money. So he is his campaign is definitely very well funded to the point where Keisha Lance Bottoms, she was leading in polls, in you know right after the primary season ended, up until a couple months ago, and then polls recently started to shift more towards Rick Jackson, and you know you you have to wonder you know in a in a year where people are calling this this might be a a blue wave or blue tsunami that you know Rick Jackson has been able to kind of close close in on on that on that race and it's also interesting comparing that to John Ossoff who's running for Senate and is leading by by a very wide margin so so it's it's definitely been an interesting race to watch because you see Rick Jackson with all of these ad buys, getting his name out there. And Keisha Lance Bottoms, you know, her campaign is not as well funded. She's not a millionaire or a billionaire, rather, like Rick Jackson. So she's been relying more on you know earned media debates, talking to the media to To get her name across, so, but yeah, she definitely does have statewide recognition.

Chris Fitzsimon  
90?!

Alander Rocha  
90 yeah so of his own money. So he is his campaign is definitely very well funded to the point where Keisha Lance Bottoms, she was leading in polls, in you know right after the primary season ended, up until a couple months ago, and then polls recently started to shift more towards Rick Jackson, and you know you you have to wonder you know in a in a year where people are calling this this might be a a blue wave or blue tsunami that you know Rick Jackson has been able to kind of close close in on on that on that race and it's also interesting comparing that to John Ossoff who's running for Senate and is leading by by a very wide margin so so it's it's definitely been an interesting race to watch because you see Rick Jackson with all of these ad buys, getting his name out there. And Keisha Lance Bottoms, you know, her campaign is not as well funded. She's not a millionaire or a billionaire, rather, like Rick Jackson. So she's been relying more on you know earned media debates, talking to the media to to get her name across, so, but yeah, she definitely does have statewide recognition.

Chris Fitzsimon  
Ben, what about let's talk about Michigan briefly. Republican John James seems to be a bit further behind the Democrat Jocelyn Benson than in some of these other states. Give us an update of what's happening in Michigan.

Ben Solis  
Yeah, certainly. John James was going to be the the household name in the race. Obviously, he's a congressman. He's run multiple times, had some mixed success in in his electoral path, but you know is a sitting congressman. And of course, we have Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson on the Democratic side, also a big name in our politics has been Secretary of State for the last eight years and is now transitioning to try to be the executive of our state. The the interesting situation that we saw come out of the primaries that Benson faced almost no opposition. She kind of soared right into her nomination, and whereas James came in as a bit of a wounded candidate, he had a pretty large primary primary opposition from several candidates. One being a pretty wealthy businessman who spent quite a bit of money in the race. Him being Perry Johnson. And there are still some defections. There are still some rifts within the Republican Party over James securing the nomination. So you know, it does not appear that Republicans are as enthusiastic to turn out to vote in that race as they would have been if, say, Trump was on the ballot, or there was some larger issue like abortion on the ballot, as there were in our past races. So those are the dynamics just on the ground in the race, but you know James is not really a well-funded candidate. He's taken public money in order to fund his campaign, which is a departure from the candidate that was in the 2022 race against Gretchen Whitmer. That was Tudor Dixon. She was a media personality, and she did not take any public money, and also suffered some of the the slings and arrows of not being a really well-funded candidate. So here we are, just a little bit away from election day, and you know we see that the polls, which we which we are being very circumspect to not really trust here in Michigan, because they're often wrong.

Chris Fitzsimon  
Smart idea.

Ben Solis  
Yes, they're often wrong in Michigan, so we kind of are backing off of that. But a lot of the polling does show that Benson is pretty far ahead. Some polls have her up as high as seven points. Fox News poll has her up almost 9-10, points. Yes, it's still it's still up in the air to see whether that's going to transpire. But I do know that you know the other dynamics in the congressional races and the Senate races have kind of trickled down to our gubernatorial race, we have Abdul El-Sayed running for Senate. The Republicans have tried to tie Benson closely to Abdul El-Sayed, even though their campaigns are drastically different. The things that they've mentioned and campaigned on are a little bit different. But you know, the main dynamic that we see both of these candidates debating are the high prices due to the Iran War, which we've you know carried a lot of the brunt of. Our gas prices are particularly high compared to the rest of the nation, and also the the trade war with Canada, you know, does affect us quite a bit. So you know those are the dynamics in the race of just trying to find a way to bring down those high prices, while these other you know hot topic issues are kind of falling into place after those those high prices being the top issue.

Chris Fitzsimon  
Thank you. A couple. I wonder if we just go around now and ask you. A couple of you guys have understandably mentioned President Trump or his policies. How much of a factor is Trump himself in the election, and then what is the Republican candidate for governor saying, either distancing or cozying up to Trump, maybe Alander, start with you in Georgia.

Alander Rocha  
Yeah, no. So I was just at a press conference with Keisha Lance Bottoms and Raphael Warnock, Senator Warnock, and they were basically reminding voters to vote like Trump is on the ballot because that's something that Trump has been saying, you know, on the campaign trail, and they're they're very much, you know, publicizing that as well, you know, with a Republican candidate during the primary, he definitely cozied up to. He did not have Trump's endorsement. Trump endorsed his opponent and then endorsed Rick Jackson after he won the primary. But it's been a noticeable shift where he often mentioned that he would be Trump's favorite governor. He would be just like Trump, but with a southern tone. And now, after the primary, after he won the primary, he's more he's moderated that a lot, saying, you know, I will be any president's favorite governor, regardless if they're a Democrat or Republican, and a noticeable thing is that he started to align himself with Governor Brian Kemp instead, who's you know a mainline Republican.

Chris Fitzsimon  
And no fan of Trump, right?

Alander Rocha  
And has had you know right now their their relationship is better, but it's definitely it was definitely not at sometimes, and so so so you see that that playing out in Jackson's campaign for sure. Him trying to build some distance there.

Chris Fitzsimon  
Baylor, what about Trump in Wisconsin? How is that playing, and what is Tiffany saying?

Baylor Spears  
I'd say we're seeing kind of a similar where Tiffany is trying to distance himself from Trump. You know, he has in in the primary. Trump played a big role in helping Tiffany win the nomination, but you know now he has sort of changed some of his positions or taken a position against Trump, saying that you know he wants the war in Iran to to end. And like Tiffany, you know, he voted against certifying the 2020 presidential election, but now he has sort of-it's taken months, but he has said that he thinks that Joe Biden won the 2020 election and that he would certify the 2028 election. So he has taken some steps to try to distance himself from Trump, though at the same time it's not necessarily been like you know super distancing himself from Trump. He still like won't vote against you know ending the war in Iran, and also like he spoke with President Donald Trump in the Fox Valley. Our our current governor Tony Evers, a Democrat, he had been trying to get some aid for the Fox Valley, which dealt with some tornadoes over the summer, and he had not been hearing back from the Trump administration. And then Trump sort of announced via Truth Social that he would be giving the state $18 million that he had talked to Tiffany. He sort of emphasized that he has endorsed Tiffany in the race, and you know that he would see us soon in Wisconsin, and and Tiffany, you know, he responded by thanking the president, and but also saying that he would work with anyone to sort of help the state. Yeah, so that's kind of where things are.

Chris Fitzsimon  
What about Michigan, Ben? What is how is Trump playing there in a governor's race that's not as close as these two others?

Ben Solis  
Yeah, we we're seeing a similar situation, and and Trump is very much a sort of like shadow candidate on this ballot. You know, John James has tied his political ship pretty closely to Trump. He won that that contested primary pretty much on the strength of Trump coming to offer some air support and and endorse him. He has appeared at several rallies that Trump has held since then for his candidates, his his chosen candidates. When Trump does decide to come to Michigan again, he says that he will. I assume that John James will be on the stage with him as well. So there is a lot of close relationships that that are on display with Trump and John James, but also you know he has tried to take some measure of distance on Trump's policies, namely the war on Iran. Although he did not vote against the resolutions to end the war, and while they do not hold the force of law, those those were important resolutions. He has said that the war is taking too long, and that he advocates for this thing to be wrapped up here pretty quickly. That there needs to be an end in sight, and also on data centers, you know, John James has said that he is for local control and for communities being at the helm of those decisions on on data centers. Whereas Trump has said that we just need to go full bore and full steam ahead, federal regulations maybe smart president yes that will be the the guardrail that he sees best in place is that there's a smart president in in office, and and James has not been able to really you know get over that and also he did vote for the One Big Beautiful Bill so you know that has become another flashpoint across all of our campaigns here, whether it's the gubernatorial or the congressional races. Is you know which of these GOP candidates did vote for the One Big Beautiful Bill? What were the repercussions? And and that's how Democrats are trying to to frame them. So you know it's been it's been iffy with him and Trump because he very much owes Trump a lot of his political career, but at the same time, I think that he, like other Republican candidates, are kind of reading the tea leaves that maybe they should not be so closely aligned with him as as the time comes up.

Chris Fitzsimon  
Ben, you mentioned data centers. I was going to ask Alander and Baylor: Are data centers big in in your states? And Trump feels like the only Republican really outspokenly still supporting him. Alander what's happening with how big a deal is data centers or data centers in Georgia?

Alander Rocha  
Oh, I mean, in Georgia is one of the. I mean, I believe this year they became the fastest growing state for or area in in Atlanta for new data center construction. I will add to what Ben said, sort of about how, in terms how it relates to Trump, is that Rick Jackson was just asked recently if there is one policy proposal that he disagrees with Trump on, and he said data centers. So I'm I'm assuming you know he's he wants to be a little bit more hands on, but it's definitely played a huge role. It's probably I would say it's one of the main issues in the governor's race here, where Keisha Lance Bottoms is tying Rick Jackson to a data center development that he's invested in in in Texas, and and he's come out with a tax say on data centers on a data center that she approved while she was mayor. It wasn't, you know, an AI mega, you know, data center that we see today. It was, you know, a data center for Georgia Tech, and she, you know, she she she stands behind that that decision. But it's definitely become one of the biggest issue with, you know. Adams calling for a moratorium, so that way they can study the issue. And Rick Jackson, he wants to leave it up to community leaders to make those decisions. But he does say that you know there needs to be environmental protections, and that residents need to benefit from the economic growth, or they they need to feel the economic benefits from these data centers, so you you kind of have these these two dually envisions for for how to regulate them. So that's been interesting to watch for sure.

Chris Fitzsimon  
What about Wisconsin, Baylor data centers are they a big deal?

Baylor Spears  
Yeah, it's definitely been a big deal here, and it started with the primary with the the Democratic socialist there she had called for a moratorium, but neither of the current the you know who ended up being the nominees. Neither of them will go as far as to call for a moratorium, but immediately after the primary ended, you saw Tom Tiffany trying to basically position himself as the anti data center candidate and David Crowley is the pro data center candidate, calling him Data Center David.

Chris Fitzsimon  
Some alliteration there.

Baylor Spears  
Yes, yes. Though they're really both kind of in a similar area where they they've both changed their position to be slightly more anti data center. Like Tom Tiffany, he also like he had voted against you know in Congress he had voted against states being able to regulate you know data centers, so now they are both though kind of in a similar area where you know they both want to ban NDAs, they both both want to have local communities have the final say on whether or not data centers get built, but then they also have some differences where, like David Crowley wants them to all like if they're going to be built here, they he wants them all built with renewable energy. While Tom Tiffany has essentially equated being a anti data center with being anti renewable energy, he's framing it as sort of being both things will eat up the state's farmland, and so he has kind of taken that position on the issue and sort of made that the reason why he's anti data center. But yeah, but they're both, you know, kind of middle of the road. They're not super far either way.

Chris Fitzsimon  
All right, I want to. I got a couple of things to cover quickly in the minutes we have. Let's go around and talk about control of the General Assembly there, it's different for every state, or what gains or losses can be made for each party. Ben, a trifecta might be possible for Democrats in Michigan.

Ben Solis  
Yeah, if they can pull it off, they had a trifecta in 2023 through 24, and it was a pretty prolific session for the Democrats. They pumped out a lot of legislation in the early days, but then slowed down. Some of their slowdowns were, you know, coupled with the 24 election, which saw the Republicans take control of the House once more, and so that is another major get for Democrats if they can pull it off this cycle. They have House Speaker Matt Hall, who really fashions himself as as a is is a statewide Trump figure, speaks like him, talks like him, pummels pummels the pavement quite like him as well too. So he's been a little bit of a thorn in the Democrat side throughout the couple of budget cycles that we've covered, very contentious budget cycles, and you know, with with a blue wave in play, potentially Democrats are banking that they can move enough anti-Trump sentiment, anti-data center against Hall and his House colleagues, and and some of the polling and some of the the news reporting that we've seen here shows that Hall might be vulnerable. How vulnerable? We we're not sure quite yet. But if they can, you know, take enough of his caucus away out of power, they can flip the House. If they can also knock off Hall at the same time, that would be a tremendous win for the Democrats.

Chris Fitzsimon  
It would take a massive wave in Georgia, Alander, obviously. But what, what, what are the folks thinking is possible if there is is if the blue wave develops there?

Alander Rocha  
Democrats are feeling very bullish on the House being flipped. They are targeting about 10 seats that you know seem likely that because either the margins were very close in the last election, or you know there there was some split voters voting Democrat or in Republican, and so and these are mostly in North Atlanta. These are suburbs that have been trending Democratic over the last few cycles, and so Democrats. I would say people feel that you know probably the House is a toss up right now because there are also seats that Republicans are targeting as well. There is a a seat near Athens, near the University of Georgia. Where a Democrat won last year in a special election, but that is, you know, safe seat for for Republicans. So Republicans are targeting those seats. They're not as many that they could you know flip, but Democrats are definitely feeling very bullish. I would say on the House, on the Senate, however, that's that will likely stay Republican. Democrats may pick up a a couple seats, but that one will likely stay stay Republican.

Chris Fitzsimon  
Baylor in Wisconsin, the GOP holds small majorities. Is that going to hold? What is the thinking there in terms of the legislature?

Baylor Spears  
It's going to be a toss up, you know, like like most Wisconsin elections, you know, we we got new maps in 2024 that kind of put things in play for the first time in you know 15 years for Democrats. This is really the year to sort of see you know whether Democrats can or can't flip the Senate and Assembly things look a little better for Democrats in the Senate. The seats that are up for election haven't been up for election under the new maps yet. This is kind of the first test of them, and Democrats are looking at trying to flip two additional seats. And there was sort of a wave of retirements by Republicans, including in the Senate, in some of these competitive seats, so it's probably looking like it's their advantage. There, the Assembly is kind of a different story. Democrats need to flip an additional five seats, and in most of these seats, Republican incumbents stayed to to run again for their seats, and also like these are all seats that have been tested under these new maps again. But you know, Democrats, if you talk to them, they're they're sounding optimistic about their their chances. They say that they see a path forward and that it could happen this year. And if if Democrats do it, it'll be the first time that they'll have held, you know, majorities and in either house in 16 years.

Chris Fitzsimon  
What's one thing that you wish that national folks got about your state as a local reporter? We read all about Michigan and Wisconsin and Georgia in the national news, but what's something about living there, reporting on the stuff that the national folks don't quite get? Ben, start with you.

Ben Solis  
Michigan is the center of the political universe right now. It feels like you know. I don't want to dismiss any other states' dynamics, but it's really interesting from our demographics, our geography, the the issues in play. It's no wonder that the Democrats and the the other parties have moved up their dates to have us be an early state for voting. I think how Michigan moves in this particular election, especially with the Senate race and our gubernatorial race in the state houses, is really going to be a barometer for how the country may move in 2028.

Chris Fitzsimon  
Alander, what what do folks not get about Georgia, or sometimes mischaracterize?

Alander Rocha  
You know, one thing that I find really interesting is that you have candidates from both parties sort of fighting for that moderate voter, and there's discussions on whether you know the Democrats should be you know targeting more progressive voters or moderate, but here in Georgia they are very much fighting over those middle of the line swing voters, independents. So I think these voters are definitely the people who will sort of decide the election one way or the other, and it's unclear how that's going to go. And one thing that I also think it's really interesting is that while they they on a statewide level they are very much you know trying to to to sued moderate voters on a local level, you see a rise of progressive candidates. Where you know in the state house there is a Democratic Socialist that's been elected. There's one that's running who will likely be elected because he's running in a safe Democratic seat, and Atlanta City Council just elected a Democratic Socialist as well. So that's been a dynamic that I've found fascinating to watch on the local level. You see this rise of progressive politics, and on the statewide level, you see candidates very much fighting for this middle of the line voter.

Chris Fitzsimon  
That's interesting, Baylor. Give us a quick take on Wisconsin's thing that people maybe don't get.

Baylor Spears  
I was going to say, Ben. You know, it's funny because I also feel I feel like Wisconsin is really the political center of the universe right now.

Ben Solis  
Cheers to the Midwest.

Alander Rocha  
I think I think Georgia could could compete as well. You know,

Chris Fitzsimon  
I think Georgia has a claim.

Baylor Spears  
Um, but I was going to say here in Wisconsin, you know, our elections are always close, and so a a lot of what it's going to come down to here is turnout. You know, we're seeing Republicans really try to turn out their voters. You know, in a year that Trump is not on the ballot, and that you know the the gubernatorial race that is our you know top of the ballot race, and we're seeing Democrats try to do the same thing. I will say one thing that you know I I personally haven't brought up, but I I think. They've also brought up is just the amount of money that's going into this. Republicans, we have three billionaires who are funding the the Republicans' campaign through the Republican Party of Wisconsin. They've like recent finance reports showed that Tom Tiffany he got $26 million in the last campaign cycle. 24 million of that came from the Republican Party, which had gotten you know about that much from the three billionaires, and you know they're using that money to you know basically put out all of this negative messaging about David Crowley, so sort of trying to get people not excited about voting for David Crowley, while also you know hopefully boosting Tom Tiffany's own name recognition.

Chris Fitzsimon  
Well, that's thank you so much, guys. Fascinating. Love to talk to you again, Ben Baylor and Alander. Thanks for being with us.

Alander Rocha  
Thank you.

Baylor Spears  
Thank you.

Ben Solis  
Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.

Chris Fitzsimon And that's our show for this week. Thanks for listening to Stories From The States. I'm Chris Fitzsimon. Mallory Cheng produced and edited the podcast. David Singer produced our theme music. If you want to know what's on your ballot this election, what your candidates stand for, and how your community is reacting, you can go to newsfromthestates.com to find your local States Newsroom outlet's voter guide. States Newsroom is the nation's largest state-focused nonprofit news organization, with reporting from every state capital. We shine a light on policy and politics in all 50 states, and we provide it all for free. Again, you can go to newsfromthestates.com. Thanks for listening. We'll talk to you soon.