Wallace tests incumbent Meuser in 9th Congressional District

Pennsylvania’s deep red 9th Congressional District has elected Republican Rep. Dan Meuser by increasing margins since his first run in 2018.

Meuser’s seat is still considered safe, but he’s facing a strong challenger in Democrat Rachel Wallace.

The 9th Congressional District stretches through the state’s coal region into the northern tier.  It covers all or part of a dozen counties including Schuylkill, where the candidates debated Tuesday night at Penn State-Schuylkill Commonwealth outside Pottsville.

Wallace, 38, and Meuser, 62, faced off for the first and only time two weeks before the election and just a few days after the release of third quarter campaign finance reports documenting a strong showing by Wallace.

Meuser has raised $2 million and spent $2 million during this cycle overall – about double Wallace’s reported haul of $1 million and nearly triple her spend of $687,488.

But Wallace raised $378,451 to Meuser’s $219,641 during Q3 and has $389,825 in the bank to his $136,904 cash on hand, the least of any incumbent in Pennsylvania’s congressional delegation. 

Prominent Democrats had taken notice before the recent filing deadline – including Gov. Josh Shapiro, who stumped with her in person this summer amid his own reelection campaign, and James Carville joining for a virtual fundraiser. 

Still, it’s a long shot, say analysts – including Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research and the Floyd Institute for Public Policy at Franklin & Marshall College. 

“The fundraising difference is intriguing, but it is pretty well below the kind of resources that are needed to challenge an incumbent in such a district,” Yost said. “There are always surprises in a wave election. But a Meuser loss feels so far from the realm of the possible, given the district.” 

In addition to Meuser’s track record, more than twice as many Republicans are registered to vote in the district as Democrats, state records show. 

“You never know”

Bobby Weaver, a Republican business owner who’s supported Meuser in the past and ran for city council in Pottsville a few years ago, said he went to the debate in part because he finds Wallace’s approach “impressive.” 

“Maybe people are just conditioned to expect Democrats to lose in the county, so therefore they’re not excited,” said Weaver, 32, noting the GOP’s roughly 2:1 voter registration edge. “They haven’t had a candidate to back for years, you know. And she’s treating it like an extremely competitive race. … Crazy things can happen if you treat something seriously.” 

Artist Lance Rautzhan, who runs the project space Cabin Contemporary not far from campus, says he was intrigued that Wallace didn’t mention her campaign right away when she visited the gallery as a patron. 

“She’s going to the right places, and she’s saying the right things and asking the right questions, and listening,” said Rautzhan, an unaffiliated voter who tends to vote for Democrats because they’re typically more supportive of the arts. 

Wallace is also out-raising and -spending challengers in other safe districts – but not the four toss-ups – the 1st, 7th, 8th and 10th – considered flippable to Democrats. 

So, why some momentum for Democrats in the 9th? 

The district is quite safe, “but in this climate you never know,” said Scott Meinke, professor of politics at Bucknell University.

“I don’t think it’s especially likely,” Meinke said. “But if the bottom really drops out for Republicans on Election Day, then I think you would expect a few surprises in some safe Republican seats, and you would look to safe Republican seats with reasonably well-funded challengers first.”

Democratic strategist J.J. Abbott noted the 9th District’s geographic proximity to two tossups – the 7th and 8th. And perhaps, Abbott said, there’s some lingering resentment over the Department of Homeland Security’s plans – since canceled – to convert two warehouses in the district to immigration detention centers.

Some of Meuser’s constituents have criticized him for being inaccessible as public backlash, lawsuits and other opposing maneuvers ensued in the commonwealth and elsewhere. DHS later pivoted; now, both CD9 properties in Upper Bern and Tremont townships are among those on the market, officially. 

Asked Tuesday during a media availability after the debate why he didn’t engage with the public in person when the ICE center was an active concern, Mesuer initially described a meeting organized with a local Indivisible chapter attended by “40 people.”

“They called me a fascist,” he said.

The event happened in December before news broke about the warehouse conversion plans, Meuser said. Some have said rumors about the prospect, as outlandish as it seemed at first, started around that time.

“It was a big surprise. But as soon as it occurred, I engaged immediately … with [former DHS Sec.] Kristi Noem, and then [DHS Sec.] Markwayne Mullin,” he said, noting op-eds he wrote and naming other officials he met with privately. “We were working towards, and we were working towards making it work for the community.” 

For a time, Republican County Commissioners in Berks and Schuylkill were updating the public about those discussions at every commissioners meeting. 

Wallace’s campaign focused on the ICE warehouse fallout as a core issue for a while. But it dropped out of her messaging after ICE’s plans changed – even though public backlash partly stemmed from Meuser’s response and tax losses of about $2 million annually, combined, between the two municipalities and their respective schools and county governments. 

Data centers have meanwhile increasingly dominated public protests over development, Abbott noted, and are more universally opposed across the political spectrum in the 9th District and elsewhere.

Meuser pledged Tuesday to fight “like mad” to compensate communities for the tax revenue lost on the warehouse properties until the federal government finds a private buyer.

“There’s no way we’re going to take… this hit,” he said. “We’re going to get that money. I’m determined. I can’t guarantee it, but I’m determined.”

Typical venues for payments in lieu of taxes for federally-owned property are highly specific and don’t apply to the warehouse properties, as the Capital-Star has reported. 

Contentious cadence

Meuser and Wallace sniped at each other throughout the debate, as they sparred over foreign policy, immigration, healthcare and more. 

Wallace wove critiques of Meuser and accusations against him into her responses throughout. 

Moderator Robert S. Carl Jr., CEO of the Schuylkill Chamber of Commerce, at one point interjected to stress that if Wallace engaged Meuser with an outright question during her response, his answer would count on her time.

“I said what was important to me to say for the topic,” Wallace told reporters later. “I wanted the opportunity to share it with people: This is who I am. This is what I would fight for. And tonight, for me, was also about holding Dan Meuser accountable.”

She was on the offensive from her opening statement, accusing Meuser of insider trading – which he said is “completely false.”

“Any stock that I purchased was well before I got into Congress,” he responded on stage. “And by the way, the S&P, the NASDAQ, and the Dow have increased almost 200% over the last 10 years. And that was the last time I purchased a stock.”

Financial disclosures show he reported stock purchases as recently as June by a dependent child. CNBC and other outlets reported shortly thereafter on members of Congress buying SpaceX stock as the company went public. 

Asked later to clarify, Meuser attributed that particular transaction to his daughter. A financial adviser handles trades on his behalf, he said. 

“I have not directed one stock purchase since I’ve been in office,” he said. “I had my financial consultant, which I didn’t necessarily have to do, sign that I’d have no influence, no direction, no anything. … It’s basically like a blind trust.”

If Meuser had an actual blind trust, however, he wouldn’t be responsible for filing the periodic transaction reports that, for example, documented his daughter and wife’s activity in June.  Blind trusts are rare for members of Congress for several reasons, including costs for setup, servicing and taxes.