Voters in midterm elections identify a culprit for rising cost of living: Trump’s tariffs

WASHINGTON — Rebecca Myers lives in one of the nation’s most hotly contested congressional districts, and tariffs were on her mind as she voted early and in-person in Suffolk, Virginia in late September.

The 44-year-old trained social worker said she and her husband, who recently retired after 25 years in the U.S. Navy, are raising two children, ages 7 and 9, and forgoing a family vacation to save money.

“I'm an educated person, but I'm not going to pretend to be an expert in the economy. All I can say is I know my family's finances very well and I know everything we spend money on has gone up in price.

“I understand some of it is due to the tariffs, some of it is due to the war in Iran,” Myers told States Newsroom in an Oct. 1 interview.

Myers is among a growing number of voters found to be taking their anger about affordability to the polls this midterm election and blaming President Donald Trump’s tariffs as a culprit for rising expenses. Public opinion surveys bear out Myers is far from alone in making the connection.

“The real top line is that for maybe the first time ever, tariffs are a salient issue at the ballot box,” said Scott Lincicome of the libertarian Cato Institute. “You know, normally trade is a boring issue that nobody really thinks about or cares about.”

Myers, who lives in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, voted for Elaine Luria, the Democratic candidate and former U.S. representative who is challenging the incumbent Republican, Rep. Jen Kiggans.

Kiggans, Myers said, has supported Trump’s “MAGA agenda,” including tariffs.

Kiggans’ campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump opponents seize on issue

Organizers are targeting districts like Myers’, where Democrats could flip seats.

“We talk to families every day who are struggling with the things that they need to take care of themselves and their families,” said Sondra Goldschein, executive director of the Campaign for a Family Friendly Economy.

Her organization, which also has a political action committee that endorses Democrats, recently hosted a “tariff-proof” cooking class in Chesapeake, Virginia, to drive attention to the issue. Attendees received tips like substituting chicken for beef, buying domestic produce, and choosing frozen over canned goods — all which have been affected by Trump’s ever-changing taxes on imports.

Goldschein and national organizers are targeting voters not only in Virginia, but in Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

“This Republican-backed Congress and all of the members that come from states like this have really turned their backs on working families,” Goldschein told States Newsroom during an interview ahead of the cooking class.

In a state-by-state breakdown of tariffs, the conservative National Taxpayers Union Foundation and Trade Partnership Worldwide found the top 10 states most affected by Trump’s tariffs — in the tens of billions of dollars — are California, Texas, Michigan, Georgia, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Florida, Ohio and Tennessee. 

Virginia, where business owners have paid a collective $6.2 billion in tariffs ordered by Trump since January 2025, ranked 18th.

Nearly all are in the midst of fierce battles for U.S. Senate or House seats as tariffs emerge as what critics predict will be a major factor in the midterm elections that will determine control of Congress.

Ever-changing tariffs

New research shows Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs on imported goods have cost business owners and consumers billions of dollars. 

“The typical estimate has it being in the neighborhood of $1,000-plus per year of additional (consumer) costs, and maybe accounting for somewhere between one-half and 1 percentage point of the inflation rate. That doesn't sound like a lot, but if someone came along and gave you a tax increase of $1,100, which is about what this is, you'd feel it,” said Kimberly Clausing, economist and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics.

Clausing and fellow economist Maurice Obstfeld at the nonpartisan think tank reviewed 13 academic papers from 2025 and 2026 on Trump’s tariffs and the pass-through costs to consumers and businesses.

“What makes it a little confusing and hard to measure is that there's been a lot of uncertainty about the trade policy, and so it's come in spurts and reversals and restarts,” Clausing said, adding that some businesses may absorb the new taxes on imports at first but then eventually raise prices later.

“It's not like you raise the tariff on day one and (on) day two all the prices have fully adjusted. It's a little slower than that, but you do see absolutely evidence that with time the tariffs are being passed through to consumers, and very little evidence that foreigners are bearing a significant burden,” she said. 

Trump’s tariff policy has changed more than 50 times since he began his second term in January 2025, according to the Tax Foundation, a think tank that advocates for a slimmed-down tax code and “policies that lead to greater economic growth.”

As of Sept. 10, the foundation estimated that Trump’s tariffs will cost each household an average $820 in 2026.

While Trump campaigned on the promise that other countries would pay for his tariffs, and vowed the same once he took office again, the statement has always been false, economists have documented. Tariffs are taxes that American businesses and individuals pay upon retrieving their shipments of items they’ve purchased from other countries. The tariffed goods fall into hundreds of categories — anything from machine parts to food.

The president’s early round of “emergency” and “reciprocal” tariffs imposed on worldwide goods in April 2025 were struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court in February. Since then, Trump has used three other statutes to justify charging import taxes on goods.

Impact spreads across states

The breakdown produced by the National Taxpayers Union found the biggest effects in states and industries scattered throughout America.

Sectors hit hardest by tariffs in the top 10 states include automobiles and auto parts; steel, aluminum and other metals; clothes and shoes; and food and beverages.

For example, businesses in Michigan have paid an extra $23 billion on imports, largely cars and trucks. Meanwhile, the food and beverage sector was hit hardest in Florida, where importers have paid an extra $11 billion since Trump began implementing new tariffs in 2025 through Aug. 4, 2026, according to the conservative organization’s analysis that drew from Census Bureau import data.

Bryan Riley, director of the National Taxpayers Union’s free trade initiative, described Trump’s tariffs during his second term as “a very costly policy.” 

“If you're in a state like Georgia, big tariff costs are mainly because there's a lot of auto manufacturing in Georgia, surprisingly to many people. And then that's not going to be the case in New Mexico, which doesn't have a lot of auto manufacturing, so (there are) less tariff costs and different categories hit in each state,” Riley said. 

The analysis did not account for any court-mandated refunds the Trump administration must pay back after the Supreme Court deemed the president’s initial emergency tariffs illegal. Those refunds to businesses are not necessarily passed on to consumers.

Trump and the cost of living

Polls show voters are growing increasingly frustrated with Trump’s handling of the economy, as his approval ratings plunge, and many of those surveyed are blaming the administration’s trade policy for the rising cost of living.

Overall, 69% of American adults, and 52% of Republicans, say Trump is not meeting his promise to fix the cost of living, according to an Associated Press/NORC nationwide poll of just over 2,100 voters from Sept. 24-28.

Specifically on trade and tariffs, the survey found that overall 68% of respondents disapprove of Trump’s trade negotiations with other countries, and 64% think the tariffs have gone too far.

Lincicome of the Cato Institute said it’s a “shocker” that tariffs are becoming a mainstream concern among voters.

When surveying just over 4,100 voters in mid-August, Cato and Morning Consult found 3 in 4 participants said they will consider tariffs when casting their midterm election ballot.

Additionally, the survey revealed 74% of respondents — 66% percent of Republicans and 84% of Democrats — blamed Trump’s tariffs for increased prices on items they buy at the store.

Lincicome, vice president of general economics for Cato, pointed to his home state of North Carolina, where Roy Cooper, the former Democratic governor now vying for an open U.S. Senate seat, is making opposition to tariffs a centerpiece of his affordability agenda.

“It's pretty clear from both the polling and Democrats in not just North Carolina but Georgia and Iowa and other places (candidates) are really chomping at the bit to run on cost of living, and to say they're going to nix all these tariffs. … Even in places like Ohio, where Sherrod Brown is trying to win,” Lincicome said.

Brown, a Democrat who served in the U.S. Senate from 2007-2025, was “one of the most consistent protectionists” of domestic manufacturing in the upper chamber, Lincicome said.

“Now all of a sudden he's running on nixing the tariffs,” Lincicome said. “Now he's not nearly as vocal as somebody like Cooper or (James) Talarico in Texas or Jon Ossoff in Georgia. He's still saying he's going to get rid of these tariffs, and that's a pretty shocking change.”

Trump ‘skillfully used tariffs,’ White House says

The White House defended Trump’s record on the economy and said he has “skillfully” imposed tariffs.

“President Trump signed the largest working-class tax cuts in history, lowered the cost of prescription drugs, sealed the border, drove violent crime to the lowest level in nearly a century, unleashed an energy revolution, added more than a million private-sector jobs, and sent Americans’ 401(k)s climbing to record highs. 

“The President skillfully used tariffs to renegotiate almost 20 trade deals and level the playing field for American workers and businesses. The Trump administration has consistently maintained that the cost of tariffs will ultimately be borne by foreign exporters who rely on access to the American economy, the world’s biggest and best consumer market,” said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers.