Two North Carolina US House races are now toss-ups, top forecaster says

North Carolina Democrats are closing the gap in two key congressional races in the state, political forecasters say, despite a new district map passed last year aimed at boxing them out of close House seats.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, one of the top-cited election forecasts in the U.S., updated its assessment of North Carolina’s 1st and 11th congressional districts from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up.” They’re among 13 House seats in the country whose odds have moved toward Democratic candidates.

The rating changes follow similar Democratic momentum in the U.S. Senate race, where former Gov. Roy Cooper’s commanding lead in fundraising and the polls over Republican opponent Michael Whatley shifted the contest to “Leans Democratic.” And Democratic candidates in the state have seen unusually strong fundraising numbers powered by a surge in small-dollar donations.

NC Senate passes a new voting map to flip another seat in Congress to the GOP

Both seats, analyst Kyle Kondik wrote, would be difficult for Democrats to win in most election years, but President Donald Trump’s unpopularity has helped create strong headwinds for Republican candidates as voters have soured on the party in power.

For Rep. Don Davis, D-N.C., the 1st District incumbent, a win would put an ironic twist on North Carolina Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting effort, as the new map was explicitly aimed at drawing him out of office.

“Davis has already won a pair of tough races in different, albeit less red, versions of this seat in recent years,” Kondik wrote. “Davis will be facing a rematch with his 2024 opponent, Laurie Buckhout, and there is also a Libertarian in the race that Democrats hope will ease Davis’s path to victory.”

Meanwhile, Rep. Chuck Edwards, R-N.C., faces a difficult reelection bid in the 11th District because he faces a well-funded opponent with strong ties to the region. Edwards is also in the midst of a scandal over a House Ethics inquiry into an alleged affair, which he denies, and he has struggled to raise money for his reelection bid this year.

“Edwards’s challenger is Jamie Ager (D), who has fundraised well and whose grandfather held a version of this seat in the 1980s,” forecaster Kyle Kondik wrote. “The district backed Trump by a shade under 10 points, so it’s also clearly red-leaning, but, again, the environment could sand down some of that generic Republican lean, and Edwards has some problems.”

Cook Political Report, another top forecaster, also shifted their rating of the 11th District race toward Edwards, moving it from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican” last month. They did the same in Davis’s contest in December.

Ager campaign manager Grayson Barnette said in a statement that the movement in the race shows voters want a candidate who will be there for western North Carolina.

“Jamie is building a broad coalition across Western North Carolina because voters are ready for someone who is authentic — someone who will show up, deliver and put this district ahead of Washington politics,” Barnette said. “We’re glad the national handicappers are taking notice, but ratings don’t win elections, people do. We’re going to keep doing the work.”

The campaigns for Davis, Edwards, and Buckhout did not respond to requests for comment.