Republicans are spending millions to oust a Democrat who won by 187 votes. Should he worry?

Democratic Rep. Adam Gray knows all too well that every vote makes a difference.

Two years ago, it took The Associated Press more than a month after Election Day to declare Gray won the race to represent California’s 13th Congressional District, the tightest U.S. House race in the country. By a mere 187 votes, Gray unseated incumbent Republican Rep. John Duarte, to whom Gray lost by just 564 votes two years earlier. 

This year Gray will likely benefit from the blue wave that polls show is sweeping the nation, as well as the pro-Democratic redistricting California voters approved last fall. The odds look favorable and the well-respected Cook Political Report moved the race from “toss-up” to “lean Dem” back in January.

But Gray and House Democrats – who recently sent their campaign committee chair to rally support in Modesto – aren’t leaving anything to chance.

“It’s always competitive, because people aren’t looking to rubber stamp the political parties. They’re looking for somebody who actually puts them first,” Gray said in an interview.

The 13th District, which stretches from Stockton down State Route 99 to Merced, was one of the country’s closest swing seats until voters last year approved Proposition 50, the congressional redistricting plan designed to oust five California Republican incumbents and shore up support for vulnerable Democrats. 

Despite the district’s Democratic advantage on paper, Republicans are bullish about their candidate, former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, who in 2021 unseated a progressive Democrat mayor in the heavily liberal city. Part of the GOP’s hopefulness also likely stems from having few other prospects for winnable races in California after last year’s redistricting. 

Republican groups have poured money into the race, and House GOP leadership even sent Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana to Chowchilla to rally support for Lincoln. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House Republican leadership, already spent more than $4.34 million on the race this year as of Oct. 11, the most recent campaign filing available. The money is buying ads that paint Gray as tainted by his years in the Legislature and in Congress.

In contrast, campaign finance records show the House Majority PAC, a super PAC aligned with House Democrats, has spent less than $400,000 this year on the race. 

Lincoln, a Marine Corps veteran who once served on the presidential helicopter Marine One, is emphasizing the need to cut costs for everyday people, such as by reducing taxes and limiting wasteful government spending. He frequently blames Gray for voting in 2017 to raise California’s gas tax. But Lincoln does not outline specific suggestions for how he would cut taxes and curb allegedly wasteful government programs. 

He wants to boost public safety by investing in law enforcement and ensuring the U.S. does not return to Biden-era immigration policies at the Southern border. His campaign website also highlights support for policies to boost the American artificial intelligence industry in its race against Chinese competitors, including President Donald Trump’s plan to let developers police themselves. 

“My message resonates with the voters regardless of a party,” Lincoln said, stressing that issues like affordability and access to water aren’t partisan. “They’re not red or blue — they’re red, white and blue.”

The Valley’s most independent voice?

The race largely boils down to who can win among the ‘Valleycrats’ — voters who are registered as Democrats but historically have been willing to vote for some Republicans. Proving they’re not beholden to their party is key for both Gray and Lincoln. 

“The Democrat who owns a gun, the Democrat who’s in the union but drives a truck, these are the kind of voters that are gettable for Republicans in that district,” said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic consultant and data aficionado who drew the Prop. 50 congressional maps. 

Lincoln’s political breakout came in 2020 when he won the race for mayor. He unseated Michael Tubbs, a progressive Democrat who grabbed national attention for piloting a two-year guaranteed income program that gave $500 per month, no strings attached, to 125 randomly selected city residents from low-income neighborhoods. That victory alone, Lincoln argues, proves he has cross-party appeal. 

Lincoln also touts his record on law enforcement, pointing out that Stockton’s violent crime rate hit a 15-year low by the time he left office in 2025, a reflection of a nationwide downward trend in violent crime. He did not seek reelection as mayor and instead in 2024 ran unsuccessfully for Congress against Rep. Josh Harder.

Democrats highlight staffing shortages in Stockton’s police department during Lincoln’s tenure, which led the department to cut the types of calls officers responded to. Lincoln said the department faced the same recruitment and retention issues as law enforcement departments across the country in the wake of George Floyd’s killing and social justice protests.

Rather than focus on Gray’s actions in Congress, Lincoln’s campaign has primarily attacked Gray for votes he took during the decade he served in the California Legislature. 

“Regardless of what party’s in power, you should be focused on putting the American people first and putting money back into the pockets of the hardworking American people,” Lincoln said in an interview. He said Gray was “complicit in the cost of living crisis” because he voted for legislation that increased state taxes and fees on transportation.

Advertisements funded by the House GOP-aligned super PAC highlights Gray’s 2017 vote for a state transportation bill that included a 12-cent per-gallon increase to the state’s gas tax and higher vehicle registration fees. The bill passed with the minimum two-thirds supermajority needed to increase taxes in California, a feat possible only because all Democrats supported it — making any of them effectively the deciding vote. 

Gray and other on-the-fence legislators were promised a collection of eleventh-hour “sweeteners” for their votes — state funding for projects in their districts that lawmakers can tout among their accomplishments. Gray’s district received $100 million to build 4.5 miles of road connecting Highways 99 and 140 in Merced County, the so-called Campus Parkway Project that takes drivers from the highway east to UC Merced.

Republicans accuse Gray of improperly profiting from those projects after a construction business that his cousin owns, and in which he holds a minority stake, was awarded a contract to construct a 133-room Hilton Garden Inn that now anchors a business plaza near the new segment of road.

“Adam Gray — you pay more, he gets rich,” says an advertisement by the Congressional Leadership Fund, which alleges Gray “pocketed” $400,000 of the $100 million allocated to the project in his district.

Gray disclosed receiving more than $366,000 from Marvulli, the construction company, in 2023 and 2024, according to House financial reports. He also disclosed owning a stake in the company valued between $250,000 to $500,000 which generated income between $50,000 and $100,000.

Political gravity favors Democrats

Despite the investment from national Republicans, Lincoln faces an uphill battle. 

Gray brands himself as a bipartisan champion and frequently promotes legislation he’s worked on with Republican colleagues. Earlier this year the House passed the telehealth access bill that Gray introduced with Republican Rep. David Valadao of Hanford and a measure to streamline geothermal energy projects he authored with Republican Rep. Young Kim of Orange County. 

“He’s taken some votes where he’s kind of, like, split from Democrats and become more of a point person for being able to do things across the aisle,” said Mitchell, the Democratic data and map guru. 

The California Farm Bureau, which rarely backs Democrats, endorsed him in April, citing his ability to work across party lines to deliver on water access and grants to improve farm technology.

“When results matter, Adam is the one who puts politics aside and makes sure that farmers and ranchers benefit from the decisions happening in Washington, D.C.,” said Shannon Douglass, the group’s president, in a statement. 

Even the Madera County Young Republicans club appeared to endorse Gray over Lincoln, drawing an admonishment and disciplinary action from the California Young Republicans leadership.

Gray has slammed his opponent for working for the California Republican Party, where Lincoln previously served as a finance director in 2025 before he opted to run for Congress again. 

“They’re literally running him so that they can get another yes-man for Trump,” Gray said. “With me, voters get somebody that actually puts the Valley first.”

Gray said even though Republican groups are far outspending Democratic ones in the race, he’s confident his campaign has built enough trust through its person-to-person canvassing to overcome the difference with voters. 

At a canvassing launch on Saturday inside a Modesto union hall, a few dozen volunteers gathered to knock doors for Gray, some traveling from their homes in the overwhelmingly liberal San Francisco Bay Area in the hopes of boosting Democrats in the Central Valley’s battleground districts.

Among them was Ann Merrill, a San Francisco-based organizer who emphasized to fellow volunteers how important it is to not take a single vote for granted, even if Democrats continue to perform well in polls nationwide. To drive home her point, Merrill held up a small jar with a handful of glass beads inside. 

“These are the 187 votes,” Merrill said, referring to Gray’s previous razor-thin margin of victory, shaking the jar so its contents rattled. 

“You may feel like, ‘Oh gosh, I only talked to five people today.’ Well, multiply those five people by everyone who’s out talking to five people, and doing that day after day after day,” Merrill said. 

Gray said he and his team have held door-knocking events nearly every weekend since he took office. He thanked the volunteers and introduced a special guest: House Democrats’ campaign chair Rep. Suzan DelBene who, as Speaker Johnson did for Lincoln, traveled from Washington, D.C. to convey party leadership’s support for and investment in Gray.

“I promised Suzan we’re going to win by at least 188 votes in this election,” Gray joked, eliciting laughter from the crowd.