New poll shows tight races for Iowa governor, U.S. Senate in 2026

Though Iowa has seen major Republican victories in the last several election cycles, a poll from Suffolk University Political Research Center published Wednesday found the races for U.S. Senate and governor are shaping up to be highly competitive.

In the Senate race between Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson and state Rep. Josh Turek, a Democrat, Hinson leads with 45% to 41% among likely voters, according to the poll. Libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn was the top choice for 4% of respondents.

Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand led in the poll for the gubernatorial race with 48% to Republican nominee Zach Lahn’s 44%. The poll of 500 likely midterm voters, conducted between Aug. 20 and 23, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points — meaning both races fall within the statistical margin of error.

These results were reflected in a 300-person “bellwether” poll also conducted by Suffolk University in Muscatine County with 300 likely voters conducted Aug. 17-19. That sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points. In the Muscatine County poll, Hinson led Turek 44% to 40%, and Sand led Lahn 48% to 44%.

In a news release, David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said these results are important to note because of how decisively President Donald Trump and other Republicans have won in previous election cycles.

“Keep in mind this is a state that Donald Trump won by more than 13 points in 2024,” Paleologos said. “The fact that both of these races are within the statistical margin of error in a survey where the same voters selected Trump by double digits speaks volumes about where these races stand right now.”

Trump won Iowa in the past three presidential election cycles. Iowa also currently has an all-Republican federal delegation, as well as a GOP trifecta at the Statehouse. Sand is the only Democrat to currently hold statewide elected office.

The Suffolk University poll is not the only indicator that Iowa’s elections are expected to be more competitive this cycle. The Cook Political Report, an election forecaster,  recently shifted ratings for the Iowa Senate race from “leans Republican” to a “toss up,” and the gubernatorial race from a “toss up” to “leans Democrat.”

Jessica Taylor, U.S. Senate and Governors Editor for Cook Political Report, similarly noted “even though, on paper, it should be extraordinarily difficult for Democrats to flip seats that President Donald Trump won by more than 13 points, it’s increasingly hard to ignore both public and private polling showing both races to be more competitive than the Lean category reflects,” while shifting the ratings in both Iowa and Texas Senate and governor’s races.

Rising costs and dissatisfaction with the political climate were some issues brought up by likely Iowa voters in the Suffolk University poll that may account for the shift toward Democrats.

Polltakers, who participated through live telephone interviews, were asked about their “primary motivation for voting in the midterm election” in 2026. The largest group of respondents, 40%, said they planned to vote because it was fulfilling their “civic duty” as a U.S. citizen. But the second most common reason why people planned to vote was to express “dissatisfaction with the current national political climate,” at 30%.

These responses were much more common than supporting a specific candidate’s vision, which 11% of poll respondents said motivated them to vote, or to weigh in on key local ballot issues at 16%.

When asked about household costs, gas and fuel prices, as well as grocery prices, were the top two issues poll respondents said have the highest impact on their household budgets at 28%. Healthcare costs came in third at 22%, while only 8% of Iowans responded that housing or rent expenses impact their budget the most, and 7% answered with utility bills as a top economic issue.