With MAGA friends like these, do Arkansas Republicans need enemies?

There are two predictions that I never could have made about Arkansas politics in 2026.

One is that Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who has made culture war fights her calling card, would be accused by conservative influencers of going woke.

The other is that Sen. Tom Cotton, a staunch defender of President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown and war in Iran, would be doxxed by the president. Or that it would be sparked by a dispute over when to turn back your clocks.

The two most bizarre episodes of Arkansas’ midterm election campaign are a stark reminder of how much Trump and his allies have upended state politics. They also highlight how Trump and his base have gone from an asset to a headache for Arkansas Republicans.

Sanders’ now-infamous Brad ad featured an actor playing a Medicaid recipient sitting on a bean bag chair eating cheese balls and playing video games. It felt like the latest ragebait to elicit clicks and national coverage.

Arkansas voters know the playbook well. From executive orders banning “Latinx” to campaign ads mocking trans athletes, Sanders knows how to gin up outrage on the left. This time she hoped to do it while touting Arkansas’ Medicaid work requirements taking effect next year.

But the outrage came primarily from elements of the right, with conservative commentators and influencers offended that “Brad” was portrayed by a white actor.

Cotton’s unusual exchange with Trumpland wasn’t of his own making. The two-term lawmaker was targeted by Trump in a Truth Social screed that criticized the senator for opposing a bill making daylight saving time permanent. In the post, Trump shared what he said was Cotton’s cellphone number.

Sanders and Cotton aren’t the first Republicans to experience the finicky nature of Trump and other top Republicans.

Republican U.S. Rep. French Hill witnessed that firsthand when Trump abruptly canceled plans to sign bipartisan legislation that Hill crafted as he faced a heated reelection bid. Trump ultimately allowed the bill to become law, but without his signature.

Is there an upside for either Sanders or Cotton? Perhaps. 

Distance from Trump and some elements of the right can’t hurt in an election season where the president’s low approval numbers have put Republican states like Iowa and even South Carolina potentially in play.

Cotton and Sanders are still sticking with messages designed to keep their base engaged. Less than a week after the Brad ad, Sanders unveiled two new spots that included one singling out Democratic figures like New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed. Cotton, meanwhile, has ramped up his attacks on Democratic rival Hallie Shoffner over immigration. 

With Republicans and their allies vastly outspending Democrats in Arkansas, a November upset still feels like a longshot. Aside from a poll showing surprisingly close races for Cotton and Hill, there’s been a dearth of polling in the state. 

A mercurial president and his base, however, add a little more uncertainty.

The danger for Republicans is the Brad ad and daylight saving doxxing are drawing attention to a state that’s mostly stayed off the radar nationally. Meanwhile, national Democrats are investing more in Chris Jones’ bid to unseat Hill and strategist James Carville touting Shoffner’s challenge to Cotton as the midterm’s sleeper race.

The November election is testing how much Arkansas Republicans can withstand a challenging environment for their party nationally. It’s also offering the party a cautionary tale about the limits of being loyal to Trump.